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 Hello lockout!

 With the insane spending that happened on the first day of NBA free agency in 2010, a 2011 lockout is now all but a mortal lock.  Owners can’t seem to help themselves.  They let their GMs give out horrific contracts that have no basis in the fiscal reality of the league and then continue to turn profits in the red.  David Stern has no other choice but to push for a lockout next year in order to save the owners from themselves.

The huge contracts to marginal players aren’t the only sign of impending labor doom.  When Richard Jefferson opted out of his contract – forfeiting $15.2 million next year – most people’s immediate reaction was that he had gone certifiably insane.  After all, he just had the worst year of his career (not counting injury-plagued years).  But, considering the numbers that have already been thrown at inferior players, he might actually be a genius.  Not only could he wind up with a bigger payday that will net him more money now, the deal will still be negotiated under the present collective bargaining agreement.  Considering the lockout will almost assuredly lead to a less player friendly negotiating environment, this is a huge plus.

Rumors are that these teams are going nuts with contracts with the mindset that the new CBA will allow them to opt out of bad deals, similar to the NFL. They better hope so because a number of teams have committed salary cap suicide in the past two days.

Let’s look at what has happened since free agency began:

T’Wolves re-sign Darko Milicic – 4 years, $20 million

Oh David Kahn – what are we going to do with you?

It’s well past the point where even the most adamant of Darko backers (if such people exist) have long since given up hope on his potential.  He’s merely just another foreign backup center who’s a stiff.  Yes, he was decent this past year in Minnesota, but that’s in a bunch of meaningless games and meaningless minutes.  The only way that this guy deserves $5 million a year is if the NBA’s financial system is severely broken.  Oh…right.

T’Wolves fans get  4 more years of Darko frickin’ Milicic.  I’m sorry Minnesota folks.  Considering the winters you put up with, you deserve better.

Grizzlies re-sign Rudy Gay – 5 years, $81 million

While only 23 and very talented, is Rudy Gay worth 5 years, $80 million? And outside of New York would anyone have offered him anything close to that number? Granted this contract will run through the prime of his career, unlike Joe Johnson who is 29 and will be 32 with 3 years left on a max deal. This deal is comparable to Joe Johnson’s last Hawks contract, but it’s debatable whether Gay will be able to earn the money. Keep in mind that Gay has never been an All-Star. 

Did Memphis overspead? Yes. But in their defense, they kept their top overall talent. And for a team that can’t attract quality free agents, they were able to beat the Knicks to the punch. Gay has the talent, but questions remain whether he has the heart to truly be a franchise player. The irony of this is that the team traded away Pau Gasol, a true franchise talent and a top 2 center in the game, (setting up the Lakers recent title runs) because of financial reasons.

Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace just got a contract extension.  No really.  That happened.

Bucks sign Drew Gooden – 5 years, $32 million

The Bucks win the award for shockingly bad contracts here. While the Bucks need post player depth, Gooden is not the answer.  Yes, he put up good numbers during meaningless games with the Clippers (14.8 PPG and 9.4 RPG), but he hasn’t faired nearly as well with teams that actually have an idea of contending (from recent stints in Dallas and San Antonio to back to his Cleveland days).  It almost seems like a move to intentionally suck some of the fun and excitement out of these young Bucks.

This seems like the perfect example of a team not willing to use cap space creatively.  Instead of leaving this space open to make Oklahoma City style trades –  where a team takes on a marginally bad contract for an asset – now the Bucks are left on the other end of that spectrum.  The odds that the Bucks are still going to want Gooden during his 3rd, 4th or 5th year of this contract are slim.

 When your big offseason move is to sign a guy more famous for the worst hairstyle ever (that dreadful little neck patch) than his game, it’s not a good sign.

Raptors sign Amir Johnson – 5 years, $34 million

Amir Johnson is a name that wasn’t even a blip on most causal NBA fans’ radars.  So how’d he end up with a $34 million dollar deal?  Upside.

He’s got all the tools to blossom into a great player.  He shoots well from the field, grabs rebounds at a high clip, blocks shots, and has the athletic tools to run to floor.  That said, he hasn’t put it all together.  Like, not even close.  Part of this is due to his foul rate which is Greg Oden-level absurd.  Essentially, the Raptors know a big free agent will never sign in Toronto, so they have to gamble on potential.

Amir Johnson averaged 6.3 ppg and 4.8 rpg last year.  And now he’s set to make over $30 million dollars.  But the NBA’s financial system isn’t broken…

Suns re-sign Channing Frye – 5 years, $30 million

A year ago Frye received a 2-year, $4 million dollar offer with a player’s option for year 2 from the Suns.  Then he started hitting 3s.

Now he’s netted himself a far more lucrative deal from the Suns and it’s a deal that makes sense for both sides.  $30 million may seem outrageous, but considering the contracts listed above – well – it doesn’t seem so bad.  Frye essentially has two skills – size and shooting.  Considering those two attributes don’t disappear with age, signs point to Frye being a solid contributor off the bench for years to come – think Sam Perkins, only Frye jumps when he shoots. Still, with the money that needs to be set aside for true difference makers, this is not a responsible contract.

Suns sign Hakim Warrick – 4 years, $18 million

This has been the best signing so far in free agency.  Yep…that’s where we’re at.

Hakim Warrick is the type of long, athletic player that is going to excel once he starts running with Steve Nash.  He’ll most likely be relegated to the bench – but as everyone saw in the playoffs – being a bench player for the Suns doesn’t mean that he won’t get meaningful minutes.  At this point Warrick is basically is a homeless man’s Amar’e Stodemire, with the chance just to be the poor man’s version now that he’s in Phoenix.

However, Warrick’s signing probably signals the end to the era of the actual Amar’e Stoudemire in Phoenix.  Considering Robert Sarver’s reputation for not wanting to break the bank and the fact that the team has already doled out a combined $48 million for Warrick and Frye, the prospects of spending max or near-max for Stoudemire seems highly unlikely.  Perhaps it’s best to shake things up a bit considering how something always seems to go wrong for the franchise since Nash and Stoudemire have become the core, but it’s hard to not find it a bit sad that Nash might be surrounded by less and less talent as he ages and the hopes for his first championship dwindles.

Lots of Free Agent Meetings Talk & The Smartest Failure

It’s always funny to hear about free agent meetings.  It’s pointless.  You know why?  When’s the last time a free agent meeting wasn’t “productive” and didn’t “go well.”  It’s all fluffy PR spun wonderfulness.  Just once I want to hear something like, “LeBron met with the Heat today.  It went horribly.  They were total dicks and called him names.  He most definitely isn’t going there.”  Since that’s merely a dream, thoughts shift to other thoughts about the big time free agents.

One thought that keeps on circling around my head is the backup plans of the big spenders.  Since teams have cleared all the cap space, if a team like the Knicks doesn’t land LeBron or Wade, they’re likely to panic and fill the void with something akin to a Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer combo.  This is moronic on so many different levels.

First off, no one is winning a title with a combo of two players like that and a bunch of scrubs in order to not get too high into the luxury tax.  Secondly, teams always act like cap space goes away.  It doesn’t.  Thirdly, cap space isn’t only good for signing guys, it actually might be more valuable on the trade market.  Look at how brilliantly a team like Oklahoma City uses their cap space.  GM Sam Presti has used it in the past year to get assets like Eric Maynor and the 18th pick in the 2009 draft (which they turned into a future first rounder from the Clippers) for what essentially amounts to nothing.  Presti understands how to bleed the value out of every dollar and that by taking on some marginally bad salary with his cap room, he can get a lot in return.

Most importantly, the big market team that doesn’t panic and spend away their cap is going to have a tremendous shot at landing Carmelo Anthony in 2011.  The smartest team this year is the one who misses on the big fish and goes, "Wait…screw this. We’re not winning a title next year if we blow this cap space on the new version of the Detriot Pistions Special (Charile Villanueva and Ben Gordon) – we’re gonna wait for Carmelo."

Word around the league is the Nuggets aren’t too confident that they’re going to be able to keep him – and with good reason.  Not only will the money be great, but if Carmelo went to a big market like New York it would finally give him a chance to step out of LeBron’s and Wade’s shadow.  For how good he’s been, he had the spotlight like his fellow draft classmates.  There are also other factors like how moving to a bigger market would provide more work opportunities for his wife – media personality LaLa Vasquez, or how many in the Denver community have not fully accepted and embraced him – thinking he’s an arrogant punk.

Just keep that in mind if a team with cap space sits tight after missing on a big fish.

Hoops Daily:  2010 Free Agent Signing Tracker

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15 Comments

  1. Always dumping on Darko
    His 4 year deal is only guaranteed for 3 years. No one expects him to make the all-star team, but the Wolves were terrible defensively especially in the middle. Forget that he was the number 2 pick and think about him as mediocre 7′ Euro being brought over to fill a need. Five million for three years (four if he actually performs well) for a 7′ defender is hardly an awful contract. The stupidest commentary I’ve read is that the Wolves were over paying drastically because no one in the NBA wanted him, but word on the international scene is that Spanish teams were offering contracts that after tax considerations were on par with $5 million a year. Do the Wolves fans deserve better? Hell yes, but unless you show me the large number of 7′ adequate defenders ready to take less than $5 million annually I’ll consider this fair enough. I think the real outrage should be directed as GMs that are crippling their teams for 5-6 years by overpaying $16+ million a year for guys like Gay and Johnson. Being mediocre sucks, but being broke and mediocre sucks more.

  2. ajk004 on Milicic and Others
    ajk004, that was a great post above. If anyone needs to be trashed, it’s those other teams that spent a fortune on 2nd tier guys.

    I happen to be one of those guys who thinks Milicic will become a decent NBA center, providing rebounding a shot blocking.

  3. Milicic, the good deal
    Funny article! Really.

    I agree with the messages above, Milicic is a good deal. He lost some confidence because he spent many years without any responsibility but the guy is really talented. He can defend of course and he has talent in offense, even if he doesn’t show it during his contract, having a 7 footer with a good body who can play ball is always a good thing. In fact, I’m not afraid to say that it’s a better deal that Channing Frye, who is going to play inside for the Suns? Darko really can play inside which is rare nowadays.

    In my opinion, the worst deal so far is Joe Johnson, they almost locked their roster for the next 6 years. It sounds a bit like the Rashard Lewis’ deal. Of course, Joe Johnson is a good player who totally went down when it counted (playoffs) and he will continue to put good numbers in a good team which will never be great.

    Saying that Frye’s contract is ok but Gooden’s one is bad… seriously, did you think a bit before writing it? Scott Skiles already had Gooden in his squad in Chicago, he knows what to expect. In 8 seasons, Gooden has been really constant, he puts 12 & 8 in 28 minutes in career and he is in his prime! Doesn’t it worth $6M a season?

  4. The American Dream
    Look at the money these guys get. Man, you got to wonder, how much money the NBA and it teams makes ever year! I live in Toronto and Amir Contract is to much. That’s how you know bosh is not coming back. Raptors are signing and trade, Mark my words Bosh and Lebron will be teammates for 2010 – 2011 season. I think Cleveland, Nets or New York will be their future

    Cleveland can give raptors future picks with Jamison and D Green

    New York Sign Both and David Lee

    Personal I believe the nets is the best fit for Lebron and he have connection with Jay Z part owner.

  5. Gay = lucky
    Gay’s new deal is the most insane deal thus far, with the Johnson and Gooden deals close runner-ups.

    Warrick might be the biggest off-season steal and Milicic is a good center who deserves mid-level money.

    Also Steve Blake going to the Lakers,does that mean the end for Fisher or are Brown and Farmar looking elsewhere.

  6. Gooden a bargain
    Drew Gooden is a bargain compared to most of these offers. 12 ppg and 8 rpg game guys (in 560 career games) are not that easy to find. Why don’t his stats count? Good grief.

  7. Carmelo Anthony
    What people also forget to acknowledge is the fact J.R. Smith & Kenyon Martin are unrestricted free agents next year, and Nene also has a, early termination option that he’ll likely exercise. Chauncey Billiups even only has a team option, so even though he puts up great numbers, the fact he turns 34 this summer makes bringing him back next summer a bit disconcerting. And this doesn’t even mention that coach George Karl’s health is a question mark going forward. I’ve looked into this way before these failed contract extension reports surfaced, and it just seemed like for awhile now that Anthony is pretty much going to be a goner in Denver.

  8. The johnson deal is by far
    The johnson deal is by far the worst deal. And how can you consider darko adequate at all? hes 7’0 and cant rebound the ball nearly good enough for his size. hes a bench player. are you saying hes good good enough to start? hes showed over many years he is not good. So many darko lovers on this site i dont get it

  9. I Also Like the Millic Deal
    I think worst case scenario he is a formidable backup, similar to Zaza Pachulia. I like the T-Wolves European Center Combination next year with Darko and Nikola Pekovic, which was a great signing by the Wolves. I think Pekovic will be the starter inevitably. I do agree that Drew Gooden was a bad pickup, but he could prove me wrong, he also had a great end of the year, with the meaningless minutes he got for the Clippers. But him and Maggette aren’t gonna make that team much better, and for the combined price of near a max contract, it doesn’t make much sense to me. Also they just drafted Larry Sanders, who could have probably filled Drew Gooden’s role.

  10. you LIKE the darko deal?
    I can’t believe people are justifying the darko deal. ONLY 3 guaranteed years? Why are you throwing Darko even 3 years at 5M per year??? I wouldn’t sign darko for more than 1 year… there’s NO justification for this. He’s been a horrible player in the league. The only thing he can do is block a couple shots, but overall his defense is garbage and he can’t do anything else.

    Drew Gooden’s contract is horrible. Guys like that are a dime a dozen. He’s 28 and he has ZERO upside. Might as well sign someone to the league minimum… or find an undrafted player or d-leaguer for a 10 day contract. (check out golden state for success is this area).

    I’m really sad that the raptors overpaid for Amir Johnson. I’m a raptors fan, and I love amir johnson… I think he’s incredibly underrated player and deserved $5M per year. Now he HAS to improve a lot or it’ll be a bad contract. I don’t see the point… the good news is that he’s 23 and legitimately has upside.

    Hakim Warrick is another average player in the league. he’s 27 and has zero upside. so why bother?

    Have NBA GMs learnt nothing from the Spurs over the past decade?????? Or the recent cap clearing contest that we just witnessed????

  11. If darko was as good at
    If darko was as good at defending as you guys seem to think he wouldnt be considered a bust and wouldnt be the laughing stock of the nba

  12. Darko and Gooden
    Darko and Gooden had a great end of the year with the Wolves and Clippers, repectively. Granted it was an extremely small sample size and these guys have mostly underpreformed in the NBA, they are respectable gambles. If both ever did live up to their original hype, they would be great gambles. Im a Warriors fan and the d-league approach does not work, yes it is finically feasible for small market teams, but there is a reason the were the 3rd worst team in the league. Guys like Williams, and Tolliver should be filling out the roster, not scoring 30 points a game. Despite scoring 30 a game, they give up just as much defensively; Williams doesn’t play a lick of defense and Tolliver is 6’8 and unathletic. If you want a cheap loser team, sign d-leaguers, if you want to compete, you have to gamble. With Udoh on board, Warriros might fall to the worst team in the year next year! Warriors were just an awful example of sucess. In order to get better you have to make gambles and investments, if you don’t want growth, then you should sign d-leaguers. GMing is a first adn for most a position of business management, and not as easy as everyone thinks.

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