Potential Impact Level isn't meant to be an NBA comparison for any of the players...just a range of the type of impact that drafting this kind of player could have on a franchise.
Tier 1 - The Franchise Player
Potential Impact Level: Greg Oden-Kevin Durant-Derrick Rose
1. Blake Griffin
Tier 2 - The Potential Franchise PG
Potential Impact Level: Kirk Hinrich-Tony Parker-Deron Williams
2. Ricky Rubio
Tier 3 - The Potential All-Star Gs
Potential Impact Level: Martell Webster-Andre Iguodala-Brandon Roy
3. James Harden
4. Demar DeRozan
Tier 4 - The 7'3" Beast (with No Offensive Game)
Potential Impact Level: Joel Przybilla-Emeka Okafor
5. Hasheem Thabeet
Tier 5 - The Ultra-Talented with Question Marks
Potential Impact Level: Drew Gooden-Rudy Gay
6. Jordan Hill
7. Brandon Jennings
8. Earl Clark
Tier 6 - The Safe Picks
Potential Impact Level: Shane Battier-Ronnie Brewer-Rodney Stuckey
9. Jonny Flynn
10. Chase Budinger
11. Gerald Henderson
12. Wayne Ellington
13. Eric Maynor
Tier 7 - The Slightly Less Safe Picks
Potential Impact Level: Kirk Snyder-Paul Milsapp-Danny Granger
14. James Johnson
15. Terrence Williams
16. Ty Lawson
17. Sam Young
18. Stephen Curry
19. Dejuan Blair
20. Patrick Patterson
Tier 8 - The Unproven Talent
Potential Impact Level: Johan Petro-Beno Udrih-David Lee-Josh Howard
21. Tyreke Evans
22. Jrue Holliday
23. Jeff Teague
24. Gani Lawal
25. BJ Mullens
I like what you've done with the potential picks. Does everyone feel that BGriff is a franchise player?
I think Blake Griffin could be a lot like Chris Webber at the next level. I don't think Griffin can win one being the number one guy on the court. The last time a big man was the focal point of a championship team was Tim Duncan in 2003 I believe. He has the highest floor, and while his ceiling may not be as high as those of Thabeet, DeRozan, or Rubio, at worst he will be a good player in the league for 8-10 years.
First off Greg Oden has not done anything worth being considered a Franchise changer he had 2 Big Man type dominating games. He wont be what everyone wants. Portland didnt get it right. Martell Webster is not an All-Star guard either. He played 5 minutes this year. What made you think out west he will make any ASG. You must be from Portland.
Tyreke Evans may turn out to be the biggest steal of the draft, along with Steph Curry.
I do not agree with the safe picks Jonny Flynn can become very erratic at times but will compete.
Eric Maynor may be the safest pick of the draft. If Phoenix drafts him to sit behind Nash for a year that would be perfect because he will kill Dragic all day.
I like your set up chr15r36. I believe while Oden should not be in tier one just yet he will be productive enough to be a tier one. Oden just has had back luck and he play for a good team. I can see him putting up Bynum like number or better next year. I am talking bout Bynum when healthy. It will be interesting to see this posts after works outs because I am sure a lot of people like Evans will move up.
The reason why he isn't a safe pick because most experts say that he should stay in college an extra year to improve his perimeter game. He's an undersized power foward and nobody knows what is to come of him once he reaches the NBA.
considering he is 6'7" with really long arms he could be a Milsap Brand type but i will say this, no one really know what he will do in the NBA
I really like the tiers. They seem accurate with a good comparison level. Great job.
He's going to be a contributor right away and potentially a 20/10 down the line. But not a franchise player. I dont know, call it a hunch, but I just dont see him being a Karl Malone-build-a-team-around-me kind of player. And no, 20/10 does not mean franchise. Look at Zach Randolph or Carlos Boozer.
That said, he could be a multiple time all star but if you're banking on him to lead you to many championships, then youre going to be disappointed.
The idea is that when you draft an Oden, a Durant, a D-Rose, a Blake Griffin, you are expecting a Franchise Player...someone you can legitimately build around for the next decade.
Sometimes it turns out right away as it appears to with Durant and Rose. Sometimes the results are not so clear cut, as with Oden.
But, I would think that's the type of franchise impact you are hoping for with a guy like Griffin.
How in the hell is the freshman of the year Evans in the Tier 8??? That makes no sense at all.
you have too many tiers in my opinion. i would make it like this(Based on potential):
Tier 1- Potential Franchise player- Kobe, Lebron, D Wade, D Howard, CP3
2009 Draft Players: Blake Griffin- Potential dominant post player that you put multiple shooters around.
Demar Derozan: Could become a Vince carter type with effort and motivation.
Tier 2- Potential All Star Player- Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Mo Williams, Pau Gasol
2009 draft players: Ricky Rubio: PG that has shown flashes but can he do it in the NBA.
Earl Clark: Do it all sf/pf combo.
James Harden: Scores well and does other things good enough to be a All star ala Paul Pierce or Joe Johnson
Hasheem Thabeet- Even Jamal Magloire made an all star team
Brandon Jennings- Ultra athletic pg with good vision, needs a jumpshot
Johnny Flynn- Super quick pg with decent vision, more of a scorer and undersized
Steph Curry- Combo guard with a feathery touch from the outside.
Tier 3- Role Players- Anderson Varejao, Tayshaun Prince, Shane Battier, Eddie House
Jordan Hill- Big man with high energy and effort could be a starter but more likely good big off the bench.
Wayne ellington- Good shooting touch with winning pedigree
Nobody Cares about the guys who aren't in those 3 tiers.
This is just a sample, does not include everybody who could be an all star, role player, or even franchise player.
1) Are the tiers based on how they were projected when drafted or how you see them now ? (My guess is when drafted) Mainly because currently Kirk Hinrich is not a franchise pg. I think the word franchise anything means being one of the best at your position and all-star caliber.
2) How was 1st Team All-American and unanimous ACC POY (first since David Thompson) Josh Howard an unrproven talent ?
3) How is Johnny Flynn a safer pick than Ty Lawson? (If injury concern is the answer then disregard my question)
4) Danny Granger may have been the safest pick in his entire draft- based on where he was taken (17th) he was and still is considered a steal. He was also a senior which adds safety (although so rare).
5) Gani Lawal and BJ Mullens should be the only Tier 8 players. Evans and Holiday could both be thrown into either Tier 2 or 3. Those two along with Derozan have been lottery picks since junior year of high school. If you want to differentiate Derozan b/c of his freakish athleticism and sky high potential I really think you have to bump him to Tier 1.
***Overall I generally like and agree with everything except what I stated above***
Essentially, when you look at it, don't associate the Tier level names with the potential impact player comparisons.
For example, Jrue Holliday is an unproven but talented young player. The idea is that he could end up having a Josh Howard type impact on a franchise (obviously at a different position) if he pans out, but he could also have a minimal Beno Udrih-type impact. I tried to match the player comparisons to their place in the draft, not their tier description.
- I know how much people love Tyreke Evans, but I think there are too many question marks around him to move him up too far. He doesn't have the extreme athleticism of DeRozan to overcome his weaknesses. Holliday is way too unproven at any level. That being said, those guys in a group of the highest risk/reward players on the board, and a lot of good players end up getting drafted in the 15-30 range.
- I think DeRozan's top-end potential is All-Star, but not top-10 NBA player like Griffin or even Rubio.
- I think people are a little more confident in Flynn's athleticism and ability to create his own shot than Lawson's which almost always bumps you up on the draft boards.
For this all being opinion I'll say I agree with chris for the most part. I think James Johnson should be in the Ultra Talented with question marks over Hill. IMO you know what youll get with Hill solid but nor spectacular.
Does everyone understand that these tiers are POTENTIAL teirs and not PRODUCTION tiers??
trinajoe, I like what ch15r36is has done here, his breaks players down much better. You style is very bland and doesn't differentiate the players enough.
yea but tier 2 potential franchise pg. how is that a tier? why is that just erased and added to tier 1 a franchise player is a franchise player regardless of position. the 7 3 beast. why not make that impact defensive specialist. i agree that my post was not as thought out as i should have done it but my point is why not try to improve his original to make it better. i think the original post is good but think improvements can be made.