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RedDead93 13 years, 10 months ago.
dolla130Breaking down ROY candidates
Why Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist or Lillard will or will not become top NBA rookie
Updated: August 22, 2012, 12:29 PM ETBy David Thorpe | ESPN Insider
Jennifer Pottheiser/Getty ImagesAnthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist were drafted No. 1 and 2, and either could be Rookie of the Year.ESPN.com’s Summer Forecast poll of experts recently suggested NBA Rookie of the Year voting will come down to the following three players: the New Orleans Hornets’ Anthony Davis, the Portland Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard and the Charlotte Bobcats’ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
As individuals, each of these guys had college seasons ranging from good to fantastic last season. They all have significant upside, but will be expected to contribute pretty quickly so none of them should be considered a "project" at all like the Detroit Pistons’ Andre Drummond is.
All three guys can play and will put up numbers, as they proved that to some degree during the NBA summer leagues. So how accurate will the Summer Forecast be?
When deliberating on how to vote for an MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc., the play of the individual must be considered in context with the success of his team. If this trio of players all post similar PER scores and overall game productivity, their teams’ success will carry more weight, which gives a guy like Lillard an advantage. However, if a player produces far more than any other rookie, then he’ll win even if he shines for a horrible team, which is what could happen to Kidd-Gilchrist. Davis is indeed the favorite, but he isn’t a lock.
Here’s a look at why the NBA Rookie of the Year Award will or will not go to Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist or Lillard and what might have been missing from their games to prevent them from taking home the hardware at the end of the 2012-13 season.
Anthony Davis, PF/C
Why he could win: To be sure, Davis has the potential to be a dominating defensive player. But to expect that to happen in his first year is ludicrous. Davis will benefit from playing for a team that will focus heavily on defense, which will maximize his strengths and protect him from foul trouble. That would not be the case if he were playing for a great many other teams in the league. If Davis winds up in the league’s top 10 in blocked shots, while playing on a top 10-15 defensive team, of course he’ll also be considered for All-Defense teams. That nod alone would earn him a slew of ROY votes.
Anything he does on offense would be gravy. His athleticism and hands alone should garner him plenty of opportunities to score, as well as "SportsCenter" highlights (think Blake Griffin), and his shot selection should ensure a strong field goal percentage.
Why he doesn’t win: There seems little chance that Davis won’t play a lot this season, based on the lack of competition at both of his positions. But losing minutes to foul trouble is a real possibility. Opposing teams will attack him in the post, trying to both nullify his effectiveness as a helpside shot-blocker as well as to entice him to foul — especially when they sense he is tired.
College players often use their hands more on defense than professionals because of the way games are officiated, and this issue could bother Davis for some time. Another factor to consider is the fatigue factor most No. 1 picks eventually suffer, due in part to the many extra hours they must dedicate to media, charity appearances, etc. Don’t kid yourself — Davis also could easily be a slam dunk contest participant during All-Star Weekend, adding even more to his schedule. When one considers how busy his summer was, how little recovery time he has before training camp, as well as his thin physique, it’s easy to envision Davis starting out great but limping home by the end of the season.
Damian Lillard, PG
Why he could win: Lillard showed us all during the Las Vegas summer league games that he is among the most talented point guards to enter the league in the past five seasons. He is even more polished than Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook when they first arrived in the NBA, yet more explosive than most any other of the previous rookie point guards that we have seen.
Garrett W. Ellwood/Getty ImagesDamian Lillard is more polished than Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook were coming out of college.If he gets the green light to make plays, like John Wall, Westbrook, Rose and Kyrie Irving, then undoubtedly we’ll see a great number of stellar scoring and passing nights from Lillard. Next to a post presence like LaMarcus Aldridge and veterans like Nicolas Batum and Wes Matthews, Lillard will be able to generate offense through his teammates more than most rookies will be given the chance to. This means his chances at scoring more efficiently are strong. He has the potential to average 16 points and six assists per game with a steal or so thrown in there, too. And though he’s not the shooter Irving is, with the weapons around him Lillard can get enough open looks from deep to possibly average better than 35 percent.
Why he doesn’t win: The summer league is only a brief glimpse at what the NBA game will look like for these young players. Lillard destroyed the competition in Las Vegas, but having to deal with the plethora of All-Star point guards in the Western Conference such as Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Westbrook and Ty Lawson is obviously a far more difficult challenge. Sure, the same can be said for every rookie who must adjust to the NBA, but Lillard is the rare lottery pick who will likely play a lot this year and did not compete against the nation’s best players twice a week in college.
If he struggles with consistency, it could very well be because of his inexperience at digging down deep to bring his best effort every night he plays. A struggling Portland team also could affect his overall play, just as the Wizards did Wall’s performance two seasons ago. Wall ended up searching for his own offense most of the time, as the season winded down. Considering the talent Lillard will compete with for ROY, he’ll need to have a strong season and not just a good first half.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F
Why he could win: Forget how bad the Bobcats might be again this season (it was not a fluke that they lost so often in 2011-12), and focus on just how good Kidd-Gilchrist is at playing his heart out. It’s all he has ever done, and as we recently saw with Kenneth Faried last season, that carries much of the day in the NBA. Combine that with how interested teams are in defensive intensity on all parts of the floor as well as an increased focus on the transition game, and we see ample opportunities for Kidd-Gilchrist to flirt with 20 points and 10 rebounds in certain games and perhaps some triple-doubles, too.
Kidd-Gilchrist is comfortable filling the lane, but he’s also keen on making the extra pass to get his team a simple bucket. Teams are also looking to go small at power forward more often, so Kidd-Gilchrist should see significant minutes matched up against bigger but slower opponents. But he possesses the power and strength to play with them, despite his youth. He’s not going to average Tyreke Evans‘ rookie line of 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game, but 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists a game is certainly within reach. And that would be a powerful statement to voters.
Why he doesn’t win: Gilchrist is many things, but nothing in Las Vegas suggested he’s a good shooter. If he’s not effective on the glass or in transition, he might struggle to score on many nights. Unlike Lillard, he’s used to playing with a target on his chest against top players, so I don’t see that as an issue.
But losing is contagious, and losing as often as Charlotte might this season can certainly be dispiriting. It’s even possible that management/coaching does not challenge him to bring his amazing energy every night once the end of the season is near, as the race for the next lottery pick will be on. Kidd-Gilchrist without his special drive and tenacity in gear is simply not a special player, and he certainly would not be worthy of a ROY selection.
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RedDead93
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