[slash787Participant]

I can name soooo many example’s of high upside players (Athletes) that don’t even come close to the production of guys that are considered average to below average athletes.

However

I cannot name a ton of high upside (Athletes/Perry Jones) that have out produced solid guys like (Jared Sullinger)

 Serge Ibaka, Biyombo, DeAndre Jordan come to mind.  I can name 30 to 40 guys that were consider below average athletes that are great players now and I’ll pull their initial draft preview to prove it if you make me.

Feel free to prove me wrong.  It won’t happen.

[slash787Participant]

My point is if I have the choice between two College players give me the guy that has produced over the guy that hasn’t produced but has "potential" 9 out of 10 times (Obviously there are LeBron and Yao Ming scenarios). 

[HaleParticipant]

Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor worked out pretty well. If a guy gets production but doesn’t have any athletic ability he still won’t be able to play (Jon Scheyer anyone?). I see your point, and you’re right, but it works both ways.

[slash787Participant]

 Did I not just say above 9 out of 10 times with Lebron and Yao as exceptions.  Now that there are no high school players jumping to the NBA your example is NA.  I’m sure Dwight Howard would have put up absurd numbers if he went to college.  With the current rules Dwight would have went to college under your scenario.  My guess is he would have played better then Drummond or Perry Jones.

I’ll even give you Dwight.  If you can come up with any more please feel free.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

It can be based on mental or physical maturity, or a lack thereof. DeMarcus Cousins was definitely a guy who produced solid numbers, but was a risky, "upside" pick. His mental game and maturity is still in question, but he seemed to have been in much better condition this season and showed definite improvement. Would be interested in your scenarios, because I absolutely think it works both ways.

Also, think about these "upside" guys. Most of them are younger players, ones who have yet to have their best days. Andre Drummond may not have had the best freshman year, but look at some of the top centers in this years draft. Were they any better as freshmen? Think the answer is a resounding, no. It works both ways and is not as easy as drafting the guy with better college numbers. If you look at it in consideration to the value of where they were drafted, upside picks are not nearly as big of a deal as they are made to be.

One person drafts Kwame Brown, "upside gets you fired". One person drafts Adam Morrison, "well he had bust written all over him" (funny that the same person actually drafted both, but beside the point). Morrison was college’s leading scorer. He had a high arcing shot, was a great competitor and I thought he looked like a stud. I actually think I wanted him first, believe it or not. The guy produced against GOOD teams, too. It works both ways and I have yet to see a person show much of a debate of the dangers of drafting younger players with upside over older players who have put up better college numbers.

The Sullinger/Jones III debate is a good one, but I think that it is beyond numbers. They both scare me in different ways. I like Sullinger more as a player, think he is tougher and will not be afraid to bang down low. Also am afraid of his conditioning and possible injuries (just have a feeling. Had the same one with Kevin Love and he has been much more durable than I thought he has, but I have no clue if Sullinger will get into the same shape). Perry Jones III is a guy who people believe can be a match-up nightmare as a 3. I don’t and dislike the fact that he has gotten pushed around by stronger players. I honestly do not know who I would choose right now. But, I think going purely off of college production would be a mistake as there are other important external factors.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Answer tends to be the same:

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/potential-over-productivity

There was this guy, Jon Oats, who brought this up a lot as well.

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/more-scouting-tests-past

Here were also a couple posts, one about my distaste of the use of "motor" and the other stemming from a possible parallel between "motor" being a counterpoint to "potential" (ie. upside).

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/motor-most-overused-term-describing-prospects

http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/motor-vs-potential

Also, with my first one: no, motor is not the most overused word in the draft. My point was that I dislike the use of it and do not necessarily think that the player described as "high motor" will always be better than player described as "high potential/upside". Motor is relative and I think sometimes those described as having a "low motor" are just not polished. Once they get more of an idea of how to play, I think their "motor" ends up working just fine, usually.

[slash787Participant]

Dwight Howard and Amare. I’ll give you both of them even though they were high schoolers so that’s a whole other discussion that is no longer applicable because the one and done. Give me guys from college a la Perry Jones vs Sullinger where the high potential that didnt really do much guy ended up better. I’m looking for College not high school/international guys.

[smithers3551Participant]

I understand what you are saying but i think it depends how you look at it an example of high upside turning out better would be Derrick Favors over Cole Aldrich.

[Scott42444Participant]

 …in that I can’t think of anyone who just flourished in the NBA after having terrible production in college or high school.  When guys were coming from high school, they were dominating their competition.  If they went to college, maybe they wouldn’t have.  But, where are the guys who all the sudden figured it out once they made it onto an NBA roster?  I can’t think of any of them, but big men are probably the only ones you can really make a case for.

[Scott42444Participant]

 Brandon Jennings?  International guys sometimes have crap stats but I don’t know if that is the same as failing to produce at the NCAA level.  There are political factors involved.

[TruettParticipant]

Alando Tucker, Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Chris Douglas Roberts, Juan Dixon, Wes Johnson, Scottie Reynolds, Tyler Hansborough, and Nolan Smith getting? The answer is not many. All these players were consensus 1st team all-American’s meaning that they produced very well in college. In the NBA, none of them have had anything near the impact they had on the college game.

If you think that Sullinger is going to be a better pro than Jones III because of his college prodution, just say so. Sullinger produced very well in college and was a two time 1st team all American. It is very likely you could be correct. However, Just because you may be correct in this instance, does not mean that you have figured something out which tons of coaches, scouts, and GMs get paid millions of dollars a year to figure out… yet often fail at. 

[slash787Participant]

 There are obviously guys that produce in college that don’t on the NBA level. I’m asking for you to name a guy that put average numbers at best like perry jones that turned into a great player. All I see is the next Marvin Williams/tyrus Thomas/ brandan wright in Jones. Give me a player similar to Jones that lived up to te billing despite not doing anything impressive at college.

[slash787Participant]

 I’ll give you Jrue and even Collison. They weren’t lottery picks but I agree with you they weren’t setting the world on fire at college. Anybody have anyone else?

[llperez]

jrue holiday did very little in college and averaged like a 8 a game but was drafted based on his highschool hype and clear potential. ANd thats just off the top of my head, im sure there are numerous other examples.

[slash787Participant]

 Both solid answers but how much hype did those guys have coming out of college? Perry Jones is hyped up but has done nothing. I’m looking for those guys. Ben Wallace and those guys came out of nowhere but had no hype. I want a hyped guy with average at best numbers that lived up to the billing.

[llperez]

gerald wallace. Scored 10 a game but was a poor shooter with 17% threes, 57% ft’s and 44%fg’s and had no handles and was sloppy.

[slash787Participant]

 Wes Matthews is another guy. But he had no hype. It’s easy to name the busts and the guys that came out of nowhere but name the guy who had unimpressive stats but had a ton of potential that lived up to the billing. I’ll name 20 guys that were great in college but were called unathletic that wouldn’t be able to play at the next level. Perry jones and Jared Sullinger are my examples this year.

[slash787Participant]

 Rudy Gay was nominated for the Naismith award not even close.

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

Rudy Gay had a very similar college career to Perry Jones.

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

I mean Perry Jones wasn’t terrible either. Gay was criticized for being passive and refusing to take on his role as the main guy. Gay averaged 15 and 6 his sophomore season. Jones put up 14 and 7. That’s not an enormous difference at all.

[TruettParticipant]

Collison played on the same team as him and was a more focal part of their offense. While at UCLA, Westbrook did not even start as a freshman and his role was that of a perimeter defensive stopper. His highest PPG was below 13 per game. No one claimed that westbrook was not a huge upside pick when he was drafted. LaMarcus Aldridge is another player that did not really do anything special in college, but was draft really high on potential and has made a great impact. Derrick Favors did absolutely nothing in college, but was picked 3rd and is starting to look like he could be an all-star in a few years

 

Paul George’s stats are pretty similar to Perry Jone’s and he played in a weaker confereance. Many people think he is going to be an all star soon. Rudy Gay also had similar stats and worse production as a freshmen. Both of these guys were "upside picks" when they came out. 

 

You have changed your argument a few times, but I feel like this should finally kill your argument.. there is nothing wrong with thinking that sullinger is a better prospect and a safer choice than Jones III. There is nothing wrong with thinking that Jones III is going to be a bust, or will never achieve his full potential. However, when you provide a supporting argument assertations that are essentially your opinon with the statement that "Upside players NEVER work out (or at least are bad decisions 9 out of 10 times)," you are really just trying to create a psudeo-scientific arguemtn to hide what is essentially your opinon. The thing is, there is nothing wrong with your opinion, I think a lot of people would agree with your assesment of the two players.

However, the reason that people still draft "upside players" is exactly that. They have upside. If you are towards the end of the lottery you are in a bad position because you have missed out on the sure fire stars, but you are not good enough (prob your cap situation sucks too) to get in the playoffs. You have two options; first pick a player who will most likely become a role player, or pick someone who could become a role player, or a bust, OR has the potential to be a star. I think upside is easier to recognize than someone who has an elite nba level talent (i.e. they will become a good role player), its also easier to sell that to your fans. You may disagree with it, but what would you do if you were milwakee or phoenix or detroit… do any of these teams really need another role player?

[slash787Participant]

Thank you for making my point for me.  I already have a list of guys that broke the mold.  Never ask a question you don’t know the answer to.  I was just curious to see if anyone could name guys I could not think of.

First lets look at Jones in 2 years who played 13.7 per game, 52% from the field, over 7 rebounds, and just over half a block and steal per game.

Favors – Not on the list.  He was not a scorer but as a Freshman (12.4ppg) he shot 61% from the field, averaged over 8 rebounds, blocked over 2 shots per game, and average almost a steal per game.  Those are solid numbers for a big man and do not fit the high potential no production.

Aldridge – Not on the list. He was nothing special as a Freshman I’ll give you that.  The next season though he average 15ppg, 9 reb, 2blk, 1.4steals, and shot 57% from the field.  Once again solid numbers for a big man and do not fit the high potential no production.

Rudy Gay – He was up for Naismith Player of the Year his Sophomore season.  15ppg, 6.4 reb, 2 ast, 1.8 st, 1.6 blks, 47 % from the field Seriously?  Those crush Jone’s number and Rudy was a true SF not a tweener. People said he was not aggressive enough but he had 4 other NBA players on his team and still put those numbers up. (Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong, and Jeff Adrian).

Paul George – Seriously?  Where are you coming up with these guys? His Sophomore season he average 16.8 ppg, 3apg, 7 reb, almost 1 block, and over 2 steals.  Terrible numbers no production there.

That brings up to Russell Westbrook who yes I agree is on my list!  About time someone got somebody.  Even though looking at the absurdly stacked teams he was on they had (Love, Moute, Afflalo and Collison) not mention at his position (Afflalo and Collison) who were both upper classman.

I already have my list of guys (Russell Westbrook I’ll even throw you a bone DeMar DeRozan and Al Horford), My other list of guys it’s really long but just to name a few (Brandan Wright, Marvin Williams, Corey Brewer, Julian Wright, Patrick O’Bryant, Fred Jones, Larry Sanders). My other list of game won’t translate because they aren’t (ath, big, tall, fast whatever enough) which is about half the players in the NBA (Boozer, Millsap, David West, Steve Nash, Kevin Love, David Lee, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Mo Williams, Gilbert Arenas, Steph Curry, Ryan Anderson, Jared Dudly) Should I continue?

My point which you’re proving for me is 9 times out of 10 players that don’t produce above average numbers in college don’t translate to the NBA.  There are only a handful of players from College that got serious hype with little college production that actually became solid NBA players.  Nearly all players that receive hype and don’t put up numbers in college don’t live up to the billing.  

I think Perry Jones will end up producing similar numbers to Marvin Williams and that is great value if he’s taken in the right spot in the draft.  If he goes top 5 no way.  If he is drafted between 10 and 13 I think that is good value.

Please prove me wrong because I would rather be wrong.

 

[HaleParticipant]

I’m not proving you wrong but why is Corey Brewer on that list? He was prductive in college on 2 championship teams while sharing the ball with Horford, Noah, etc. He wasn’t a high upside guy etiher (except on D). Like I said before you are right but trends tend to change at some point. 

[JoeWolf1]

 It’s really not an either or situation.  There are many factors that determine upside and athleticism is not the only factor as to whether a player can hang in the NBA.  Kenny Gregory has the highest vertical in combine history, yet played no career NBA games despite being a career double digit college scorer while Brian Scalabrine has carved out a 10 year NBA career and he wasn’t even very athletic at 22 years old.

Look at the players in the 2012 NBA All-Star game that went to college

Kevin Durant – 25.8 ppg 11.1 rpg won pretty much every major college award in his only season at Texas

Blake Griffin – 22.7 ppg 14.4 rpg 2.3 apg in his sophomore season, won multiple POY awards

Chris Paul – 15.3 ppf 4.5 rpg 6.6 rpg in sophormore season, 1st team All-American

Russell Westbrook – 12.7 ppg 3.9 rpg 4.3 apg in sophomore season

Kevin Love – 17.5 ppg 10.6 rpg 1.9 apg in only college season – 1st team All-American

Lamarcus Aldridge – 15 ppg 9.2 rpg in sophomore season, Big 12 Defensive POY

Steve Nash – 17 ppg 3.5 rpg 6 apg in sr. season, 2 time WCC POY

Dwayne Wade – 21.3 ppg 6.3 rpg 4.4 in so. year. 1st Team All-American

Carmelo Anthony – 22.2 ppg 10 rpg 2.3 apg in Fr. year, 2nd Team All-American, Final 4 MVP

Derrick Rose – 14.9 ppg 4.5 rpg 4.7 apg in Fr. year, 3rd Team All-American, All-Final 4 team(20/6/6)

Chris Bosh – 15.6 ppg 9 rpg 1.2 apg in Fr. year, Lead ACC in FG%, 2nd fresh ever to do so

Deron Williams – 12.5 ppg 3.6 rpg 6.8 apg in Jr year, 3rd Team All-American, 2X Big 10 1st team, All-Final 4 team

Rajon Rondo – 11.6 ppg 6.1 rpg 4.9 apg 2.1 spg in So year. lead SEC in assists and steals

Andre Igoudala – 12.9 ppg 8.4 apg 4.9 apg in So year. All-America Honorable Mention, 1st team Pac 10

Paul Pierce – 20.4 ppg 6.7 rpg 2.6 apg in Jr. year. 1st team All-American, 2 X Big 12 tourney MVP

Roy Hibbert – 13.4 ppg 6.9 rpg 1.9 apg in Sr. year, 2nd team All-American 

Luol Deng – 15.1 ppg 6.9 apg 1.8 apg in Fr. year, MOP of Atlanta Reginal Final (17.6 ppg 7.4 rpg 2.8 apg)

Not exactly a bunch of guys who didn’t produce at the college level. Generally your elite players produce at the college level.  In my opinion, potential plays more of a factor when you are picking guys in the mid-to-late 1st round.  With a top pick, or when looking for a future all-star, a certain level of production is very smart to consider when picking high.

 

[JoeWolf1]

 I also don’t buy the Russell Westbrook didn’t produce in college arguement either.  He was the Pac 10 DPOY and was playing on a team with 4 other NBA players including Kevin Love. He had mutliple big games in the NCAA tournament including the Final 4, Pac 10 tournaments.  This is a guy who dropped 22 points in the Final 4. If he were on a team that wasn’t built as well he would have been a 20 ppg scorer….or damn close.

 

[slash787Participant]

 There is no trend.  The trend is and will remain if you don’t produce in college you most likely won’t produce at the next level. As you can see from the all stars above all but Russell Westbrook had great college careers. Like I have been saying 9 out of 10 "potential" guys don’t and will not pan out.  If you are drafted as a lottery pick based soley on potential and not what you have accomplished in College there is an over 90% chance you will be considered a bust and at best you will be a role player.  Russell Westbrook and DeMar Derozan are the exception not the rule.  Brandan Wright, Marvin Williams, Julian Wright, Fred Jones, etc are the rule not the exception.  If anyone can prove to me which won’t happen that high upside guys in College that don’t accomplish much or put up solid numbers become great pros after being hyped please be my guest.

Do I think Perry Jones will be Brandan Wright or Marvin Williams NO. Both those guys were bench guys that really did nothing.  Jones has at least shown he can start etc.  His numbers aren’t terrible but they don’t jump out at you. Maybe he will be the exception like Russell Westbrook but the numbers show he will most likely be a disappointment relative to his draft position.  If he were drafted in the late teens to mid 20’s I think he would give you what you expect which is an average NBA player.  But he will most likely be drafted top 10 and he won’t meet expectations.  

Give me Jared Sullinger over him and Drummond all day.  Sullinger has shown from day 1 that he can score, rebound, and lead a team to the Final Four.  I’ll take my chances on the guy that put up great numbers and has shown an effort to improve (shedding 15 pounds after being called fat a la Kevin Love) over the guy with high potential that did nothing in college. Why?  Because the past 30 drafts have shown that the Jared Sullinger type of guy pans out WAY more than the Perry Jones/Andre Drummond guys.  If anyone can prove me wrong that the high potential guy has panned out more often than the producer with physical trait knocks on them please do so.

Just look at the All Stars this year.

Durant to skinny and weak

Love to fat, slow, and small

Nash to small and not athletic enough

Hibbert not athletic and too slow

Rondo to small can’t shoot

Deron Williams too slow not athletic

Paul Pierce not fast and not athletic

Jared Sullinger too small not athletic stud in College.

Brandan Wright, Marvin Williams, Patrick O’Bryant, Fred Jones, Julian Wright, Larry Sanders, Anthony Randolph, Andre Drummond, Perry Jones – great size, speed, high motor, can jump out of the gym, athlete but did nothing in college.  

How many all stars are there with this profile?

 

 

[slash787Participant]

 With the lack of players named I will consider this case closed.

[slash787Participant]

 I’m very disappointed no one proved me wrong.  I kinda wanted to draft Perry Jones in a dynasty league I’m in and convinced myself out of it and had no one to convince me otherwise.

[Author]

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