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JBickart14
TyroberBroken into 6 parts
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider’s projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA’s 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,200, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team’s current roster and the future potential of those players — that category accounts for 50 percent of each team’s overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team’s spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expect the team to have in the future.
Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
1. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 843
After winning the championship and then backing up the truck to load in some more veteran talent, we’re bullish on Miami’s future, too. The Heat have the game’s best player in LeBron James, and that doesn’t seem likely to change in the near future. And, of course, they surround him with two other All-Stars still in their prime; those facts alone push Miami to second in the players category, even with little to show for its investments in the roster surrounding its three stars. But sun and sand will take care of that part.
While the Heat don’t have much money to spend — they’re a tax team and owner Micky Arison has indicated his pockets go only so deep in this market, so we rated them dead last in this category — it seems as though it hardly matters; between the beaches, night life and the chance to win a title, it’s a veritable talent magnet. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewiswashed up on South Beach this summer despite minimal offers in dollars; in future years, you can count on other vets arriving by similar means.
Miami even improved its future draft position by stealthily plucking a protected first-round pick from Philadelphia on draft night. As a result, the Heat moved up six spots in the draft category, to 24th.
Finally, Erik Spoelstra burnished his rep as one of the league’s best young coaches by leading this group to a title. With Pat Riley still pulling the levers in the front office, we rated this management team third. Overall, one assumes it will become much easier for this group now that the monkey is off its back, which is why it edges out the Thunder and Lakers for the top spot.
(Previous rank: 2)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 822
The Thunder have arguably the best players and management, so what’s not to like here? Oklahoma City places second in our latest survey, as it won the Western Conference with a core group still in its early 20s and figures to remain elite for several years to come.
Yet you can find the kernels of storm clouds if you look hard enough, particularly on the financial end. Max deals for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and likely big-money deals for James Harden and Serge Ibaka will strain the finances in this small market, likely requiring creative solutions to fill out the rest of the roster and still avoid the worst ravages of the luxury tax.
Additionally, getting veterans to come here will be a harder sell than other markets. To the Thunder’s credit, they’ve built up enough of a winning culture that they now get considered — Derek Fisher landed here last season, for instance — but they’re still going to come behind the coastal cities. And while their four stars have shined, some of the secondary talent — most notably Kendrick Perkins — has disappointed.
That’s where good management comes in. Sam Presti has shown himself to be among the league’s best general managers, and regardless of what he did in Seattle, owner Clay Bennett has shown he can operate a basketball franchise. We rated the Thunder’s front office second behind only San Antonio — the team that is in many ways the blueprint for success.
(Previous rank: 1)
3. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 816
We liked L.A.’s players before, but now we love them — only Brooklyn increased its score more in this category, leaving the Lakers a close third behind Miami and Oklahoma City. Obviously, the additions ofSteve Nash and Dwight Howard are the reason. As long as the Lakers are willing to fork out $100 million in payroll and deal with the luxury-tax hit, they’ll have one of the league’s best rosters.
It’s never clear exactly how much credit to give the Lakers’ management — everybody wants to play there and there’s always money lying around if they need it, which affords them deals that simply aren’t presented to other teams. Nonetheless, it’s clear this is one of the league’s better-run franchises, with strong, committed ownership, GM Mitch Kupchak quietly navigating the surrounding storm of publicity and Mike Brown an underrated bench jockey.
The biggest concern, and the one that has the Lakers third instead of first, is how they refill the cupboard. Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Nash are all well into their 30s and Howard has a bad back. Meanwhile, one thing the Lakers won’t be doing much of is drafting: They have one first-round pick and one second-round pick in the three-year span we’re studying, yielding the lowest draft rating of any team.
Nonetheless, we know the endgame if one of L.A.’s stars should falter: Some other star will clamor to wear purple and gold. The Lakers got a perfect 100 for their market, a gift that keeps on giving them star players as long as they do the other things right.
(Previous rank: 11)
4. Utah Jazz | Future Power Rating: 774
A year and half ago, the Jazz looked dead in the water. Franchise legend Jerry Sloan retired in the middle of the season and All-Star point guard Deron Williams was abruptly shipped to the Nets at the trade deadline for a handful of prospects.
But after two really solid summers and a better-than-expected season in 2011-12, our optimism for the Jazz has never been higher. How does a No. 8-seed in the Western Conference without any stars warrant such a position?
Despite working in a less-than-desirable market, Jazz executive vice president Kevin O’Connor continues to be proactive in rebuilding this roster in a way that keeps the team winning while adding young pieces for the future.
The Jazz have solid veterans such as Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, but they also have very intriguing young players being groomed at multiple positions. Derrick Favors, a No. 3 overall pick, looked like a potential stud at the end of last season. Gordon Hayward improved dramatically in his second year. And lottery picks Enes Kanter and Alec Burks showed potential in their rookie season.
This summer, the Jazz took another step forward by acquiring point guard Mo Williams for essentially nothing. We believe Williams is a major upgrade over Devin Harris and should help bring stability to the roster. The addition of Marvin Williams should also help. While Marvin Williams has failed to live up to his pre-draft reputation, the player once selected a spot ahead of Deron Williams is still a solid defender who adds a veteran presence at the 3.
O’Connor has also been the master at acquiring additional lottery picks over the years, and the Jazz are set to grab another one from the Golden State Warriors in 2013. The team is also poised to have some real money to work with next summer when Jefferson, Millsap and Mo Williams come off the books.
The Jazz also put a succession plan for the 63-year-old O’Connor in motion this summer by appointing Dennis Lindsey of the Spurs as their new general manager. Lindsey is highly regarded by just about everyone in the league and should be ready to run things after being mentored by Carroll Dawson, R.C. Buford and now O’Connor.
The Jazz are still a year or two and a piece or two away from being serious contenders, but all signs continue to point in the right direction.
(Previous rank: 7)
5. Indiana Pacers | Future Power Rating: 702
The Pacers might not be the Miami Heat, but with Chicago’s Derrick Rose expected to miss a large chunk of the 2012-13 season and the Celtics continuing to show signs of aging, Indiana might be the second-best team in the East right now. Given how young most of the Pacers’ current roster is, they should stay in that position for some time.
This team doesn’t have a big star, but they are very solid 1 through 5 and have excellent chemistry. Danny Granger is in his prime, David West looked better and better as the season progressed, Roy Hibbert is playing like an All-Star, George Hill showed potential as a starting point guard and Paul George may very well be the best player on this team a year from now, if not one of the best players in the league. He has that much potential.
Still, there is reason to worry. Team president Larry Bird retired and GM David Morway resigned at the end of the season, and they were replaced by former Pacers and Knicks president Donnie Walsh and former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard. Both Walsh and Pritchard have stellar reputations, but it remains to be seen if they can execute as well as Bird and Morway did.
They got off to a rocky start this summer. The Pacers were forced to re-sign Hibbert to a max contract, gave an excessive deal to Hill, traded away Darren Collison for the right to overpay Ian Mahinmi and probably reached a bit when they selected Miles Plumlee in the late first round.
Still, the Pacers seem poised to make a run at the Heat for the next few seasons. It’s unlikely they will catch them without adding a star to the roster, but if Miami suffers injuries or chemistry issues down the road, Indiana seems to be in the best position to take its spot atop the East.
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Tyrober6. Dallas Mavericks | Future Power Rating: 697
Mavericks owner Mark Cuban made a huge gamble last summer when he balked at signing veterans such as Tyson Chandler and Caron Butler so he could have a shot this summer at landing either Deron Williams or Dwight Howard. At the time we felt it was a risk worth taking. We may have been wrong.
The Mavs were very close to landing Williams and may still get their hands on Howard next summer, but realistically, their chances of landing a superstar have diminished dramatically. Now they’re left with a very good Dirk Nowitzki, several past-their-prime vets and a handful of younger castoffs.
Several Dallas vets, including Jason Terry and Jason Kidd, walked away this summer. A couple of others, such as Lamar Odom and Brendan Haywood, were kicked to the curb. Their replacements are interesting, though. The Mavs landed Elton Brand for next to nothing. The same goes for Darren Collison, who was a starter for much of last season and had the highest playoff player efficiency rating of any Pacer. Then they landed free-agent guard O.J. Mayo on a reasonable two-year deal and picked up veteran big man Chris Kamanon a one-year deal.
Realistically, the Mavericks look like a team that will be fighting for the eighth seed in the Western Conference next season. But down the road, the team is still loaded with flexibility for the future. Cuban has proven he can lure top free agents to Big D and the Mavs should be able to land a max player in the summer of 2013 or several in the summer of 2014 if they need to.
While we understand that the Mavs’ future is less than clear, we continue to find it hard to bet against Cuban. Great management, significant financial resources and an inviting market usually lead to great things. Yes, the Mavs were burned this summer, but they continue to be positioned to make a big splash down the road.
(Previous rank: 6)
7. Denver Nuggets | Future Power Rating: 687
We ranked Denver’s management ninth, but given the deals general manager Masai Ujiri has made we might have them too low. The blockbuster trades involving both Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howardboth ended with Ujiri’s Nuggets in the winner’s circle, and some other deals in between weren’t too shabby either (notably getting Corey Brewer for free last winter). The horde of assets he got in the Anthony deal has essentially rebuilt this team into one just as good, and the addition of defensive ace Andre Iguodala this summer may further things.
There are no stars here, but we like the Nuggets’ deep, young, talented roster enough to rank them sixth in players. Guys such as Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos and Wilson Chandler should be entering their peak years, while Iguodala remains a potent two-way force on the wings.
Unfortunately, this profusion of good-but-not-greats likely condemns Denver to an upper-middle-class existence unless it can swing a blockbuster for a superstar, especially given the opposition in a loaded Western Conference that contains FPR-ranked teams Nos. 2, 3, 4, 6 and 9.
The other categories won’t help them in this regard. They’re likely to be too good to have much help coming from the draft, and their mid-tier market is unlikely to lure much top-notch talent. Meanwhile, the finances are a concern too. The Nuggets don’t have a ton of wiggle space under the luxury tax and have a lot of young players they’re going to need to pay. The Kroenke family’s history, save for one expensive dalliance with Allen Iverson, is that they’ll pinch pennies where they can.
(Previous rank: 8)
8. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 684
Two editions ago, the Bulls claimed the No. 1 spot in our rankings. A year and a half later, a devastating injury to superstar Derrick Roseand some significant losses to the bench have taken their toll.
There still remains a lot to be bullish about in Chicago. If Rose recovers from a torn ACL and returns to his MVP form, the Bulls’ starting five will remain very dangerous. However, we have our concerns that ownership may not be able to afford to keep this team together, especially its high-caliber bench.
Chicago let Omer Asik walk this summer and might be forced to do the same with Taj Gibsonwhen he hits restricted free agency next offseason. The Bulls have also openly explored moving another player, most likely Luol Deng, as a way to create more space between them and the luxury tax. As a result, both their management and roster scores took a considerable hit in our ratings.
If Rose hadn’t gotten hurt and the Bulls had made a huge run in the playoffs, things may have been very different. But with Rose possibly out for the 2012-13 season, the Bulls decided it wasn’t worth the cost to keep such a high-priced team together. The results of those decisions might be irreversible.
(Previous rank: 3)
9. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 683
We’ve written for a while now that the Spurs’ best days are behind them. And every season they show they still have a lot left in the tank.
San Antonio finished tied for the best record in the NBA last season, following a 2011-12 in which they had the best record in the Western Conference. But alas, its winning ways in the regular season once again couldn’t translate to a championship.
Although still productive, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are on the downsides of their careers. Tony Parker is the only Spurs player in his prime. And while the team can still find good role players — rookie Kawhi Leonard looked like the steal of the 2011 draft — the challenge for the Spurs, at least for next season, is that they haven’t added anyone who can really lead the team long term.
At some point (we’re done predicting when), Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will slow down. It’s unlikely a combo of Leonard, Tiago Splitter and Cory Joseph will replace them anytime soon.
We have faith in their management, which we’ve ranked No. 1 in all but one of the eight editions of FPR. But whether they can work their magic again once Duncan, Ginobili and Parker can’t get it done anymore is a fair question.
(Previous rank: 9)
10. Boston Celtics | Future Power Rating: 672
The Celtics are in a similar situation as the Spurs. Their core, with the exception of Rajon Rondo, is older. But we remain confident in Danny Ainge’s ability to keep this team on track.
While we ranked their management three spots lower than San Antonio’s, in many ways, the Celtics have a more promising future than the Spurs. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett won’t be leading the charge for much longer, but the Celtics are beginning to add depth around them. In the short term, Jason Terry should be an upgrade over the older Ray Allen. In the long term, there are a number of potential bright spots, too.
Rondo, 26, will be in his prime through the next three seasons. We were impressed withAvery Bradley before an injury cut his postseason short. Jeff Green, Brandon Bass andCourtney Lee are all solid role players still younger than 30. And Boston also added Jared Sullinger in the draft. (Fab Melo might be in that picture too, someday, but he may need longer than the three-year window we look at for these rankings.)
In short, the Celtics seem to have some of the best of both worlds. They’re built to compete now and they’re planting the seeds for the future. While their core isn’t quite up to snuff with the Spurs’, and while Ainge’s reputation, while strong, isn’t quite the same as R.C. Buford’s, the Celtics will likely continue their recent success over the next three seasons.
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Tyrober11. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 659
What a difference a season makes. The Hornets are by far the most improved team in the rankings, elevating from 27th to 11th after two major changes put them in much better position to compete. The first was the sale of the team to Tom Benson, which stopped the NBA from looking over GM Dell Demps’ shoulder and allowed him to make some shrewd moves — such as signing Gustavo Ayon for peanuts and then parlaying him into Ryan Anderson over the summer, or the little-discussed heist of Greivis Vasquez from Memphis.
That lifted the Hornets’ management score more than any other team’s, but the real cause of the rise in New Orleans’ ranking came when they won the lottery and selected centerAnthony Davis. We may not be crazy about the rest of the roster, but Davis alone pushed our ranking of the Hornets’ roster into the middle of the pack. Throw in Anderson and Eric Gordon, and the makings of a good team are there.
The Hornets’ market isn’t doing them any favors, but the rest of their positions remain strong. New Orleans will be well under the cap in 2013 after a shrewd deal that sent out the cap-clogging deals of Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor, which will allow them to pursue more help for their fledgling cast. And the Hornets are looking good for the draft too, as they’ll likely tack on another losing season before the rebuilding begins in earnest in 2013.
(Previous rank: 27)
12. Cleveland Cavaliers | Future Power Rating: 658
It’s getting better, Cavs fans. After spending a season in the FPR basement following the loss of LeBron James, Cleveland suddenly sports one of the brightest futures of any team in the league.
Much of that has to do with the addition of Kyrie Irving. The top overall selection in the 2011 draft showed enough potential in his rookie season to make us believe the Cavs may have a future All-Star on their hands. The long-term futures of fellow second-year player Tristan Thompson and rookieDion Waiters also look promising, and we believe Anderson Varejao still has enough juice to man the middle for the Cavs the next few seasons.
The team also has plenty of draft picks coming its way. The Cavs will likely have another lottery pick in 2013, and possibly again in 2014, and they own future picks from both the Kings and Heat.
They also have such a good cap situation going forward that we’ve ranked them second in money heading into the summer of 2013. Cleveland isn’t a top destination for free agents, but there’s no question the team has the flexibility to continue to add to its roster.
(Previous rank: 18)
13. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 652
On the heels of one of the most interesting offseasons in NBA annals, you might be surprised to see our overall ranking of the Rockets hasn’t changed that much. They’ve moved players and draft picks hither and yon, including jettisoning both of their point guards after each had a career year, and amazingly the one guy they haven’t moved is perennial trade rumoree Kevin Martin.
Houston’s master plan was to get a star to succeed Yao Ming, and so far it hasn’t borne fruit. Nonetheless, the Rockets are in a pretty strong position going forward, even if their current roster is nothing to write home about. With several decent young players — including four recent first-round picks, another in his second season, 2011 second-rounderChandler Parsons and undrafted third-year pro Jeremy Lin — the Rockets should have a quality core. They’ve solved their big-man riddle, too, with defensive ace Omer Asik.
Alas, a lack of star talent still plagues them. The Rockets’ bids for Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard failed, but they’ve put themselves in a great position by having max cap room for each of the next three offseasons. They also have a strong, tax-free market that’s popular with players, an ownership willing to spend both on payers and ancillary assets such as draft picks, and a strong management team that we ranked seventh.
Houston’s draft position is the other potential path to a star — it may have high picks the next two years, and will have a near-certain lottery pick from Toronto as well; only five teams rated higher in our draft category.
Thus, while 2012-13 may not be much fun, we’re still optimistic on Houston’s prospects for the three following seasons. It has three paths to getting its star — trade, free agency and draft — and at some point one of them will deliver.
(Previous rank: 10)
14. Brooklyn Nets | Future Power Rating: 644
After a number of false starts, the Brooklyn Nets finally arrived this summer, and they came loaded with talent.
A starting lineup of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries and Brook Lopez should be one of the better ones in the league. As a result, the Nets have jumped all the way to seventh in the players category, while also getting a bump in market. Still, the club moved only three spots overall.
Why? Last year the Nets were ranked first in money and seventh in draft. Now, they’re near the bottom in both categories. Brooklyn spent upward of $350 million in guaranteed contracts this summer, making it a tax-paying team with very little cap flexibility for the foreseeable future. In many cases, the team overspent as well, meaning that a number of its contracts could be difficult to move if it wants to make changes. And as of now, its only draft picks will be its own, which should land the Nets in the 20s for the next several years.
There’s no question the Nets got significantly better this summer, but it looks like their rebuilding process won’t put them in the same league as the Heat, Thunder or Lakers, and management has left them very little wiggle room to improve down the road. For better or worse, these are your Brooklyn Nets for the next few years.
(Previous rank: 17)
15. Atlanta Hawks | Future Power Rating: 611
The reign of new general manager Danny Ferry has the Hawks on the upswing in our rankings, even though we’ve soured on their roster significantly in the short term. With Joe Johnson and his massive contract shipped out of town, in a deal that was surprisingly unburdensome for Atlanta, and Marvin Williams departing under similarly cap-friendly circumstances, the Hawks are suddenly in the best cap situation of any team in the league. Which is amazing, because six months ago we rated it one of the worst. Only Al Horford, Lou Williams and first-round pick John Jenkins are signed beyond this season. Atlanta moved from 26th to first in this category, and its 25-place jump was the largest of any team in any category.
We’re not as high on Atlanta’s players, however. With Johnson gone, Williams flipped forDevin Harris, and Josh Smith in the final year of his deal, the Hawks’ foundation isn’t quite as solid as in the past. Jeff Teague and Lou Williams offer intrigue, but Horford is the only key player who is both signed and guaranteed to make an impact. Atlanta had the largest drop of any team in the players category.
Atlanta gets good grades for Ferry’s arrival, too, as the new GM has given the team a coherent strategy beyond "Let’s try to win 45 games again." While he made mistakes in Cleveland, the Cavs were also the league’s best regular-season team in his final two seasons there, and his opening moves in Atlanta — trading Johnson, using the trade exception to get Kyle Korver for free, signing Lou Williams, and the Marvin Williams trade — have all been firmly on the plus side.
But whether he can get Atlanta out of the middle class and into the upper crust largely depends on what he can do with all that cap space. Atlanta native Dwight Howard now seems like a long shot, but perhaps other openings will emerge.
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Tyrober16. Los Angeles Clippers | Future Power Rating: 592
We’re a lot less bullish on the Clippers after a head-scratching summer that could give way to an uncertain future. While they accomplished the main objective — a five-year extension for Blake Griffin — Chris Paulis a free agent after the season and their only promising young player, center DeAndre Jordan, didn’t make much progress last season. L.A.’s main summer pursuits were middling free agents, as it seemed more focused on short-term fixes than long-term excellence.
Also, there’s the Donald Sterling factor. With former general manager Neil Olshey gone to Portland, the Clips haven’t hired a replacement and instead are running the team by committee — a group that includes head coach Vinny Del Negro and, more importantly, The Donald. That led us to drop the Clippers’ management score by 51 points, the biggest drop of any team.
We also rated the Clippers 24th in the money category. While their cap position isn’t bad — they’ll be at the cap if Paul leaves but still have money under the tax — it’s never clear what expenses the penny-pinching Sterling will approve.
Griffin, obviously, gives them a tremendous foundation, and Eric Bledsoe is a potentially important piece too; that’s what keeps them in the middle of the pack in the rankings. But asset-wise, there isn’t a whole let else surrounding Griffin if Paul leaves, and we’re not sure this franchise has the acumen or the financial will to provide those pieces.
(Previous rank: 4)
17. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 572
The rankings continue to struggle with a team like the Sixers, even after their recent major acquisition. They have a young roster, are well-coached, played very well for most of last season and now have one of the best young big men in the game. And still, our formula remains unimpressed.
The addition of Andrew Bynum this summer was a major plus for the Sixers. But the loss of Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams and Elton Brand largely offset it — especially if Bynum decides to bolt for greener pastures next summer when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes form a solid core of young players around Bynum, and the additions of Nick Young and Dorell Wright should help their recent shooting woes. But it’s unclear whether Philly will ever be able to make the leap from good to great.
Doug Collins has done a great job getting the most out of this team the past two seasons, but his style of coaching tends to wear on players over time and there are concerns his strong voice is starting to fade. There are also major concerns that his growing voice in personnel decisions is hurting the Sixers; while the Bynum trade could be a terrific deal, the rest of their moves this summer were questionable.
Furthermore, the team lacks the financial flexibility or draft picks to make another major addition. So once again we ask: While the team remains solid, with no money, middling draft picks and some holes on the roster, are the Sixers just running to standstill?
(Previous rank: 16)
18. Minnesota Timberwolves | Future Power Rating: 565
While the Wolves are putting some nice pieces around Kevin Love, the key factor in Minnesota’s future remains what happens when he can opt out in three years. And remember, that means the clock starts at least a year earlier — that’s when Chris Paul and Deron Williams were dealt when their respective teams realized they were leaving anyway.
Minnesota made a mistake not signing Love for the full five-year extension, needlessly exposing itself to flight risk. Exacerbating this problem is that we rated the Twin Cities dead last among the league’s 30 markets; while locals love it, NBA players aren’t as fond of the frigid winters.
The Love decision, and a series of draft foul-ups (most notably Jonny Flynn and Wes Johnson) are the reason we still have Minnesota’s management — led by GM David Kahn and owner Glen Taylor — ranked only 25th, even though the rest of the program seems to be in fairly good shape. Supplemented by pre-Kahn draftees Love and Nikola Pekovic, and with additions such as Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams, the T-Wolves have a strong foundation of young talent around Love.
Minnesota’s cap situation is pretty solid too, even with a few questionable contracts mixed in: The Wolves will have enough room under the tax to pay Pekovic next summer, and then can get well under the cap and perhaps pursue another running mate for Love in the summer of 2014. All of that is encouraging, but we’d be a lot more encouraged if we knew Love couldn’t fly the coup.
(Previous rank: 20)
19. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 553
After being stuck in the high 20s for the past several editions, the Warriors finally seem to be turning the corner to respectability thanks to a revamped ownership and management group.
Joe Lacob is as engaged as any owner in the league, Jerry West is making his influence felt in the front office and new GM Bob Myers seems to have the requisite balance between basketball IQ and management IQ to lead the Warriors into the future.
On the court, Golden State continues to get more talented thanks to the addition of a legit center in Andrew Bogut at last year’s trade deadline and drafting well the past few years.Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson appear to have bright futures ahead of them, and there’s a chance that this year’s lottery pick, Harrison Barnes, might be a third straight coup.
With Bogut commanding double teams in the post and Curry, Thompson and Barnes on the outside, the Warriors should have one of the better inside-outside attacks in the NBA next season. If Thompson and Barnes improve and Bogut and Curry show us they’re healthy, they have the room to move up considerably in the players category.
Financially, the Warriors have some flexibility starting in the summer of 2014 and significant flexibility in 2015. They’ll likely send their draft pick to the Jazz next year, but given the weakness of that draft, perhaps that’s not such a huge blow.
(Previous rank: 20)
20. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 534
The Knicks continue to make moves each summer but our rankings continue to be unimpressed. They remain this high based primarily on their No. 2-ranked market. Everywhere else, the picture isn’t pretty. This summer the haul includes Marcus Camby, Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton. How any of those players propel the Knicks to the next level, either in the short term and especially in the long term, remains a mystery. Meanwhile, the Knicks let two promising young players,Jeremy Lin and Landry Fields, walk. In Fields’ case, it was understandable, since the Raptors seriously overpaid to get him. But in Lin’s case? That move was a head-scratcher.
Their core doesn’t inspire great confidence, either. Amare Stoudemire looks worn down.Tyson Chandler had a great first season, but the reigning defensive player of the year is the only player on the team who tries on that side of ball. And while he’s still a terrific individual player, Carmelo Anthony has struggled to mesh with anyone on the roster.
We continue to have reservations about the Knicks’ management as well. GM Glen Grundwald is fine, but owner James Dolan is a wild card who puts his front-office team in untenable positions. While Dolan has deep pockets — the only reason they’re not 10 spots lower on management — he’s erratic and meddles too much on the basketball side.
The Knicks have also lost virtually all of the cap flexibility they once had, based on the trades they made to get the space to sign Chandler. The result was pretty obvious this summer. While other top teams pursued Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, the Knicks had to sit on the sidelines because they didn’t have any assets left to get it down. While there’s some talk in New York of landing Chris Paul next summer, the team just doesn’t have the resources to make it happen.
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Tyrober21. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating: 532
We still like the Grizzlies’ players, ranking them ninth, but they’ve dropped four places since our previous rankings because of worries over Zach Randolph’s knee. If he’s as ordinary as he looked in the playoffs, then Memphis’ starting five becomes a much less imposing group. Nonetheless, the Marc Gasol–Rudy Gay–Mike Conley core is solid even without Z-Bo, and some of the bench talent (Tony Wroten,Marreese Speights, Jerryd Bayless) is intriguing as well.
Money is a problem, though. Luxury-tax issues have already cost them O.J. Mayo and are likely to make it difficult to knit together a productive bench going forward; Memphis projects as a tax team for the next three seasons unless it uses its amnesty rights on Randolph or Gay. Don’t expect much help from the draft either, as the Grizzlies owe a future first to the Minnesota Timberwolves and are likely to be picking in the high teens or low 20s themselves.
The potential sale of the Grizzlies to Robert Pera is a confounding factor in the team’s rating, as we don’t know what the future management might look like for this organization or how much it will be willing to spend. The current crew, however, is a known quantity — GM Chris Wallace has been passable, owner Michael Heisley is erratic and coach Lionel Hollins is a plus.
Finally, this market won’t help them much either. Not a lot of players are taking discounts to come to Memphis, let’s put it that way. Tennessee has no state taxes, at least, and it doesn’t get too cold during the winter, but we rated it 29th.
(Previous rank: 15)
22. Detroit Pistons | Future Power Rating: 506
The Pistons moved up six spots with their strongest summer in recent memory. The team was able to jettison Ben Gordon’s ugly contract, land a potential star in Andre Drummond in the draft and, for the first time in a while, is looking at some potential cap room starting in the summer of 2013.
Getting the Bobcats to take back Gordon’s contract was the big reason the Pistons moved up, as it affords Detroit the type of cap flexibility it hasn’t had since 2009. We expect them to use it more wisely than they did last time.
Essentially every other category remains the same. Greg Monroe remains a bright spot.Rodney Stuckey is solid. Brandon Knight, Austin Daye, Jonas Jerebko and Drummond all show promise. But overall, the Pistons are stuck with the 26th-best roster in a 30-team league.
If Monroe, Knight and Drummond show progress next season and if the Pistons can make a savvy move or two next summer, they have a chance to make a much bigger leap next year. As for now, patience is still the word in Detroit.
(Previous rank: 28)
23. (tie) Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 486
When we first started doing this, Portland ranked right near the top. But since then it has been a steady descent. Since our last traipse through the Future Power Rankings, the Blazers imploded on the court and their pursuit of free agents failed. So you won’t be surprised to see them drop more than any team in this edition, slipping 10 places to 23rd.
While they still have a star power forward in his prime in LaMarcus Aldridge and a solid wingman in Nicolas Batum, Portland’s other young players are unproven and the depth of its talent pool is questionable.
Money-wise, Portland has a history of being willing to spend, but its free-agent miss this summer hurts because the club may be capped out for the next three. Portland has some trade assets and has always been willing to use its exceptions, but matching Batum’s offer sheet from Minnesota assured there wouldn’t be a second dip in the pool for a Roy Hibbert.
Throw in a mid-tier market that ranks high on player amenities (and, yes, bike lanes) but low on weather, and a future first-round draft pick owed to Charlotte for the Gerald Wallacedeal, and Portland’s future looks as iffy as ever. Don’t look now, but Aldridge is a free agent in 2015. The Trail Blazers have three years to give him a reason to stick around. At least they finally hired a GM to put a plan in place; we’ll see if this one lasts more than a year.
(Previous rank: 13)
23. (tie) Toronto Raptors | Future Power Rating: 486
Raptors fans are hopeful that their team is about to turn the corner. Our formula isn’t nearly as optimistic.
The team added three significant pieces this offseason. Kyle Lowryshould add some much needed toughness at the point, Terrence Rossoozes potential at the wing and talented center Jonas Valanciunas is finally coming over after spending what would have been his rookie season abroad. Of the three, only Lowry expects to have an immediate impact on their record, as both Ross and Valanciunas are raw and will need time. Young players such asDeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis still have a lot of room for growth, too.
On the downside, the Raptors spectacularly overpaid for Landry Fields in their quixotic attempt to lure Steve Nash to Toronto, and as a result, hampered their ability to have big-time cap space in the summer of 2013. At this point the Raptors won’t have major cap space until 2014, when they may have to use much of it to re-sign Lowry and DeRozan. They also are unlikely to have their draft pick next year — they sent it to the Rockets in the Lowry trade — and by 2014, will probably be solid enough to warrant only a late lottery pick.
While the net result of the summer was baby steps in the right direction, Toronto needs a much more dramatic overhaul to be truly relevant again.
(Previous rank: 26)
25. Milwaukee Bucks | Future Power Rating: 475
The Bucks are one of those teams that appear to be caught in perpetual limbo. Working under a mandate from owner Herb Kohl to win now, GM John Hammond has made major deals every year attempting to bring in the right mix of veterans to be a relevant playoff team. A combination of injuries, bad chemistry and a few missteps via trades has left the Bucks on the outside looking in. And nothing that’s happened since the previous FPR appears to have changed that.
Brandon Jennings’ progress appears to have stalled. Monta Ellis is still an elite scorer, but isn’t a great fit next to Jennings in the backcourt. Ersan Ilyasova had a breakout season, but isn’t an elite player at his position.
Samuel Dalembert and Joel Przybilla are Band-Aids at the center position. This year’s lottery pick, John Henson, has shown promise, but the rest of the Bucks’ draft picks over the past few years remain major works in progress. Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh all have talent, but they all are a few years away. A sudden improvement by Jennings, Harris or Udoh could help their cause. But short of that, the Bucks appear to be trapped in a sort of purgatory — good enough to win some games, but not good enough to make a real push toward contention.
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Tyrober26. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 448
Welcome to the day after. The Magic finally executed a Dwight Howardtrade, and now face a long rebuilding stretch under new general manger Rob Hennigan and new head coach Jacque Vaughn. We rated Orlando 29th in the players category and that still seems kind. Arron Afflalo, who had a sub-15 player efficiency rating last season, might be their best.
Many have argued that Orlando didn’t get enough back for Howard, and that, in particular, all the protected picks paled beside what they could have received. Count us among them. (Seriously, top-40 protection on a second-round pick from the Lakers? Like they were gonna walk away over this?) But lost in all this was an equally puzzling deal earlier this summer, when the Magic opted to sign-and-trade the incredibly productive Ryan Anderson forGustavo Ayon rather than pay him.
As a result, Orlando’s management score isn’t any better than last time. While Otis Smith is no longer around to overpay everybody (fun stat: Orlando will pay Gilbert Arenas $43 million over the next two seasons), it’s not clear how much interference Hennigan has from upstairs. Regardless of who’s calling the shots, the first moves from the new regime haven’t been encouraging.
At some point, however, Orlando’s assets will help. We rated them second in the draft category — if nothing else, the Magic’s own picks will be very high, plus they do own three future first-round selections — and seventh in money, as the trades have cleaned up one of the league’s worst cap situations. In a sunny, tax-free market that has lured big-time free agents before (but let’s not speak of the Grant Hill era), that could be a real weapon going forward.
(Previous rank: 25)
27. Sacramento Kings | Future Power Rating: 435
Our vote for the league’s worst-run team, Sacramento is still staggering along with an uncertain future — the owners are broke and the team doesn’t have a new arena, but it doesn’t seem like the league will let it move either. Theoretically the Kings have plenty of cap space in future seasons, but until the financial situation gets resolution it may not mean much. The Kings will be looking to operate on a shoestring budget to make ends meet and haven’t helped themselves with a series of head-scratching deals.
It’s a shame, because they actually have some pretty good players. Rewarded with annual lottery picks for their failings, the nucleus of DeMarcus Cousins, Thomas Robinson, Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton looks pretty imposing. We rated it 19th, and may have sold them short at that — their play on the court is intertwined with the Kings’ long-standing inability to develop their personnel, with Evans the most glaring example, meaning that these guys might look a lot better with a real organization.
The 27th-ranked market isn’t doing them any favors either. By far the least desirable of the West Coast markets, it combines high California taxes with few of the beach/nightlife amenities that players seek, and nobody wants to hook up with this organization given its reputation. At least the weather is pretty good. Still, even in the event the Kings decided to go on a spending splurge, it’s not clear who will take their money.
(Previous rank: 24)
28. Washington Wizards | Future Power Rating: 431
In a word: blah. The Wizards unloaded some of the more comic elements of last seasons’s merry band of underachievers by sending away Nick Young, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, but in their place they settled for expensive mediocrity. Emeka Okafor and Trevor Arizawill win them a few more games in the short term, but the pre-draft deal with New Orleans leaves Washington capped out till at least 2014, and likely longer if their young players turn out to be worth paying.
That’s why we rated Washington’s management 27th. There was brief hope that owner Ted Leonsis would shake things up when he bought the team two years ago, but he opted to extend the nondescript tenure of general manager Ernie Grunfeld and the equally uninspiring sideline reign of Randy Wittman. We’re seeing the results after an offseason in which it seems the main aspiration is to stumble into an 8-seed.
Washington does, at least, have some good young players: John Wall, Brad Beal, Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker are a solid base, and Nene gives the team a strong veteran center. Also, the draft should contribute more young talent in the next couple of years, as we don’t expect the Wizards’ win total to take off with this crew.
We might be more excited if this franchise had any track record of player development, but it doesn’t — witness the Blatche/Young/McGee era — and with Wall’s progress just as stuck in the mud as everyone else’s, it’s not clear where or when a star might emerge. With all those handicaps, we have the Wizards at a bleak 28th in our outlook.
(Previous rank: 22)
29. Phoenix Suns | Future Power Rating: 410
The Suns have bottomed out, falling from 26th to next-to-last.
Our prediction in February was that they "might just stay there a while." Six months later, despite a flurry of offseason moves, very little has changed.
Steve Nash and Grant Hill are gone. So are Robin Lopez, Hakim Warrickand Josh Childress. In their stead, the Suns have brought in Goran Dragic, Luis Scola, Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson.
Dragic was a nice pickup. Scola, obtained via the amnesty waiver wire, came at a bargain. And obviously both Beasley (the No. 2 pick in the draft in 2008) and Johnson (the No. 4 pick in the draft in 2010) have talent. Marcin Gortat remains a bright spot. Markieff Morrisshowed some promise as a rookie. Kendall Marshall was the best pure point guard in the draft his year, though taking him at No. 13 seemed like a reach.
Nevertheless, we believe that only the Bobcats and Magic are in worse shape from a players perspective.
We’re pinning much of the blame on owner Robert Saver. He’s the worst type of owner — both a spendthrift and a meddler who doesn’t really know basketball. It’s virtually impossible for us to rate the job GM Lon Babby has done because of Saver’s influence on basketball decisions.
The only good news for Suns fans? The team should have its own high draft pick this summer and is due picks from the Grizzlies and Lakers in coming years.
(Previous rank: 29)
30. Charlotte Bobcats | Future Power Rating: 382
We had the Bobcats ranked last for two years before they bottomed out last season. Now that they’ve cratered … well, we still have them in last. But encouraging signs are on the horizon, and they may not be in this position for too much longer.
The biggest reason the ‘Cats stayed at No. 30 is a lack of talent — rookie Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seems like the only potential star here — and so they still rank last in the players category. But that will change in coming years — between their own picks and future first-rounders from Portland and Detroit, we have them rated first in the draft category. The only drag is a protected pick owed to the Bulls, one that could blow up on them if they don’t become good in a few years.
Financially, Charlotte’s position has improved considerably. The Bobcats essentially bought a likely lottery pick from Detroit when they agreed to take on Ben Gordon’s leaden contract, yet still have plenty of cap room going forward. Finding somebody who will take it may prove more challenging, as we rated this market 28th because of its lack of fan support and losing history. That can change, however; this city has supported better Charlotte teams in the past, and while it’s a small market it’s at least not a cold one.
The Bobcats also have some professional management in the well-regarded Rich Cho, who has steered them away from some of the disastrous short-term gambles that were commonplace in the Larry Brown era. Baby steps, but they won’t be 30th for much longer.
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TyroberEditor’s note: This story was updated on July 23, and again on August 14.
The NBA free-agency signing period officially opened at 12:01 a.m. ET July 11, and we’ve had a plethora of free-agent signings and trades.
But the only seismic shift didn’t occur until the end of the summer, when the Orlando Magicsent Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers as part of a four-team, 12-player deal that also sent three draft picks to Orlando.
Up until that point, the offseason had been relatively quiet. Steve Nash, who also made his way to L.A., was the only true star to change teams. Key players such as Ray Allen (Miami Heat), Jason Kidd (New York Knicks) and Joe Johnson (Brooklyn Nets) changed addresses as well. But overall, the rest of the NBA had taken baby steps.
A solid NBA draft, led by Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, also has played a role in reshaping rosters, as have a couple of coaching changes and front-office shake-ups.
There likely will be even more player movement in the coming weeks, but now that the dust is beginning to settle, it’s time to give preliminary grades for what each team did this offseason.
I’m a college professor in my day job and understand that this exercise really is the equivalent of giving a student a final grade after the first week of class. There’s so much we just don’t know about how these changes will pan out. In truth, you cannot really grade an offseason until you get to the postseason or even the next offseason. (Case in point: We gave the Mavs an A for keeping their powder dry in December to make a run at Deron Williams and Howard in July. They got close on Williams, but it didn’t work out for them.)
The grades take into account how each team in the league has performed so far in remaking itself, considering both the opportunities it had and the moves it has made. The grades are not a ranking of which are the best teams in the league, just a device to track which teams have improved and which teams haven’t.
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