NBA Draft Tiers, Take 2
I'm getting worked on this post...nevertheless.
- I tend to think Jordan Hill is a relatively known quantity at this point. He did drop 18 and 11 last season, as a junior. Him, Stephen Curry and Earl Clark are probably the hardest to categorize, but I think you know by now the type of player you are getting out of Hill and Curry, but Clark is still a wild card.
- The "Similar Expectations" are meant to be compared to the expectations on those players when they were drafted, and are used to show the wide range of possible outcomes.
Tiers I and II are pretty well set in stone, it would seem, but I do agree that there is still a lot of movement and unpredictability in the tiers below that. However, I think, no matter how they are ranked, most of the players in the first round territory seem to fit pretty neatly into these categories.
My tiers
Lv 1 ( Franchise Changer)
Blake Griffin
Ricky Rubio
Brandon Jennings
Lv2 ( All star potential)
Hasheem Thabeet
Jordan Hill
Earl Clark
Demar Derozan
Lv3 ( Solid Starters now)
Jordan Hill
James Harden
Stephen Curry
Chase Budinger
Lv4 ( off the bench)
Austin Daye
Tyreke Evans
Eric Maynor
Jrue Holiday
i would put more...but you get the picture.
Clearly, you know the numerals better than I do...good catch.
I think Clark and Johnson are really big question marks right now. Going into the draft, they really remind me of guys like Rodney White, Julian Wright, Marrese Speights or even Rajon Rondo. They certainly have NBA talent and some level of college success, but I think they are higher risk/reward picks than some of the other guys because they've really never been the top player on their team.
I could see them both being either borderline All-Star caliber players or end of bench guys with in 3 years.
Tier I: The Franchise-Changer (Similar Expectations: Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Carmelo Anthony)
Blake Griffin
Tier II: The Potential All-Stars (Similar Expectations: Al Horford, OJ Mayo, Tyrus Thomas)
Ricky Rubio
Hasheem Thabeet
Tier III: The Solid Proven Talent (Similar Expectations: Brandon Roy, Shane Battier, Lamarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison)
James Harden
Jordan Hill
Stephen Curry
Jonny Flynn
Tier IV: The Upside Group (Similar Expectations: Gerald Green, Shaun Livingston, Russell Westbrook, Josh Smith)
Jrue Holliday
DeMar DeRozan
Earl Clark
Tyreke Evans
James Johnson
Brandon Jennings
Tier V: The Lower Upside Group (Similar Expectations: Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Rodney Carney, Danny Granger)
Dejuan Blair
Gerald Henderson
Eric Maynor
Wayne Ellington
Terrence Williams
Chase Budinger
Jeff Teague
Sam Young
Patty Mills
Ty Lawson
Tyler Hansbrough
Tier VI: The Projects (Similar Expectations: Andiris Biedrins, Patrick O'Bryant, Saer Sene)
BJ Mullens
Austin Daye
Gani Lawal