So as a fan of the Raptors I've been secretly waiting for their pick to fall in the lottery and after the coin flip "loss" the pick that goes to OKC is at 12 - pretty good for Lowry even if he was inconsistent and injured.
My question is if you are Sam Presti, do you stay at that pick and hope for someone to fall (Shabazz, Zeller and maybe Len I could possibly see) or do you trade down and pick up picks in this/next years draft. I was thinking this cuz I don't know how much an MCW or McCollum can help them and neither is really young with tremendous upside. beyond those 2 the draft seems to drop into another level with known, low upside commodities (Plumlee, McDermott, Dieng, Withey) or talented, high upside international that are often a risk to reach that potential or come over.
If I were Presti, my perfect scenario would be if Atlanta wanted to trade up with their 17 and 18 picks so I could grab 2 of Gobert, Sarich, Nogueira or Schroeder to stash overseas so they don't get the D-league treatment PJIII and Lamb got. A more realistic option could be Cleveland trading 19 and 31 where you might be able to get one of those players or an Adams and then a defined, niche player such as Crabbe, Wolters or Payne?
Tell me what you guys think, I just don't see a ton of playing time on that roster for a non-veteran or above average player.
I think they are in a great position, both with their pick's place in the lottery, and as an organization with a made roster, to roll the dice with Archie Goodwin and see if he can develop into their sixth man over a few years.
They still have Lamb.
If they end up with the 12th pick after the lottery, I would think they go after Len or Zeller. We could see Len fall.
I'm sure they were already leaning towards snagging Cauley-Stein in this draft. Having PJones and Cauley-Stein as their future sounds like tons of potential, especially playing with Ibaka.
Back to reality, I think Kelly Olynyk would be a perfect for OKC. For various reasons.
I think he's ready to help a team and OKC is a team that is already at the peak of the league. Olynyk's shooting can/will space the floor for Westbrook and Durant. Not only that but Olynyk could eventually extend his range to the NBA 3 and be a perfect offensive option (Chris Bosh has improved his three-point shot for Wade and James).
I agree with you though, moving down 3-5 spots would be ideal for them if they can secure Daric and stash him overseas for 3 years (or until he's ready). Saric could end up being the steal of this draft of he pans out to his potential and could also be a key piece in Durant/Westbrook's primes.
All in all, Sam Presti is in a good place with that pick. Whatever he does will be a win/win scenario for him. Take a shot on a high rise/high reward like Saric, hope Len falls to you, draft Olynyk.
I have them taking either Zeller, Olynyk, or Len. Whichever fall to 12.
Cauley-Stein is returning. I doubt Len or Zeller fall that far. Plumlee or a foreign big could be the answer.
I agree that they have a great chance to come away from the draft with a future big man, but I'm not a huge fan of Zeller or Olynyk unless it was as the 1st big guy off the bench as Collison ages. I can't see either beating out Perkins on the defensive end as to me they both project as non-rim protectors. I'd prefer Olynyk cuz I think he could play the 4 and his ability to stretch the D is similar to Ibaka's so I guess the question would be if you think the 2 can play together well enough on the defensive end. Len seems like an interesting pick given that he is a definite 5 with some offensive upside, but I don't know enough about him and wonder if his upside/risk is any better/worth than a Gobert or Steven Adams. I expect he is further along but is it that significant to select him rather than drop back and get some future picks, especially if he won't see a lot of playing time in the first season or so?
One last thought - What if they commit to Durant at the 4 with Ibaka/Collison/Thabeet and maybe PJIII taking minutes at the 5? That would leave them thin on the wings with the uncertainty of Martin and Lamb but has shown to be really potent offensively.
Note to Thunder.... Please do not draft another project big man... Sene and Swift... Nuff said'
you can add cole aldridge on the list as well. but do remember they also drafted Serge Ibaka as a major project big man and he worked out for them. and its not like theres a sure fire NBA center prospect at this stage of the draft.
I like the Cavs trade scenario for both teams... but I doubt the Thunder want that many draft picks in a crappy draft like this. Ideally they will trade this pick for a pick next year in a MUCH stronger draft... even a pick in the 18-22 range next year would be better than the 12th pick in this draft.
OKC doesn't need picks in the future, their future is now. They should pick the best player available, one who is ready to contribute right now. Options would be McCollum (as their main man of the bench), or somebody up front who could contribute like Zeller or Olynyk (although I'm not a big fan of those two guys).
The Thunder is a team that is always thinking long term... they have plenty of young talent right now, their only major need is a quality center (which we agree on your two suggestions... not a fan) so there is no need to force the issue if other options are possible.
Decent chance Zeller, Len, and Olynyk are all gone by 12. I was hoping the Thunder would take Olynyk when they were picking in the 10 range and he was borderline lottery, but he seems to be moving up on a lot of the boards. They took a safe big guy in Cole Adrich and he never really panned out, but Plumlee or Withey would not be bad options imo. They really seem to be set all over the place so taking the best player available is never a bad idea.
Jackson and Martin are legitimate backcourt rotations. Obviously their only need is a go to scorer in the post. Olynyk won't fall to them. Wait and see if Len, Plumlee, or Zeller falls. But Myers Leonard didn't fall past 11 last year and shockingly Miles Plumlee was taken at 26 i believe. So athletic big men are a hot commodity. I see Austin, Adams, Gobert being the best options at 12.
A big man who can score is really the only need they have for next year and beyond. I don't really see the need for them to have more young guys riding the bench while they have holes in their lineup. (8/9 of their rotation is on contract for next year, Lamb and PJ3 waiting in the wings). I really like Olynik, but others (including Presti) may prefer Zeller or Len. They have enough assets to get who they want. I just don't see them looking for guys to come off the bench or stash upside guys, when they can nab a potentially starter for as soon as next year.
With that in mind, who picking before OKC would be interested in Olynik? Portland has openly said they want to sign a C to protect the paint, and just took Meyers Leonard, so I can't imagine them taking him. Philly has Hawes, who does a lot of the same things and was really catching on at the end of the year. Minny has big holes on the wings, and they must realize they can't let Pek walk. I supposed Washington is an option, but they already have Okafor, Nene, Seraphin and Booker in their front court. Obvious no for Detroit.
why not hold onto the pick and wait for next year or the year after? whos to say the raptors are going to improve next year, they might be in the same spot. better draft class next year and they should be in no rush to use that pick as they have tremendous depth already.
Hold onto the pick? They don't get a choice.
OKC is already the second best team in the league and its core is young. They mainly need role players and I think that someone like McCollum might be better in this role than the ageing Derek Fisher.
However, it is true that they need a C more than a PG, so if they can get Len or Zeller they will surely pick them.
They might also pick Gobert if he convinces at draft camps.
I like Adams or Plumlee there. I'm not sure how much gas Perkins has left in the tank, and bringing in a big athletic guy who could learn from he and Collison before getting the reins handed over would be a great pickup IMO.
Perkins doesn't have any gas left in his tank. Most coaches wouldn't play him and many GMs would just cut him. He is below the average center at every defensive stat and significantly below average at scoring. His only use is low post defense against a scoring post-up Center. So he is useful against Brook Lopez, D. Howard and Pekovic, maybe a few more. Supposedly somehow his ability to set screens makes up for all this, but how it possibly can, I don't know.
Cleveland are probably looking to consolidate picks so could something like 31st, 33rd and 19th be done for the 12th pick, but that would leave Sam Presti with 19th, 28th, 31st,32nd and 33rd pick which he could do deals with but would be hard to consolidate.
Personally I could see Presti looking at his own 12th, 28th and 32nd picks and seeing who further up the draft might be interested. With the Thunder there not as a lottery team, other teams in the lottery may be more willing to do deals. Someone like Portland might do a deal to get a 2nd first rounder and move down a few places if there was no-one in the top 10 they fancied.
Teams would be reluctant to swap picks in the 2014 but Presti might dangle the Toronto pick this year as a carrot and see what offers he'd get then. Teams would put protection on the pick but a top 12 pick next year could give him a far better return than this year.
Personally I can see him looking at Zeller, Bazz, Plumlee even Oladipo if he feel and looking to do a deal to get the player he feels is the best of them somehow.
Realisticly Olynyk may not be the player with the most upside although he is the best fit for the team going forward other then Len IMO. OKC's draft board at 12 should be Len, Zeller, Olynyk in that order but Olynyks offensive versatility is a perfect match with the other three bigs within OKC's rotation (Perkins, Collison, and Ibaka).
Still wondering how Lamb, Martin with one year left on his deal, and the 12th pick in a terrible draft is worth one of the 11-12 best players in the league. And before we talk about all this small market stuff...how much are they paying Perkins right now?
The Thunder did pay Martin a hefty amount this year, they could have extended Harden played him this year and then looked to trade him this summer perhaps. He might have been the sort of player that teams would have given up decent 2014 picks for but Presti is a sharp GM and he has got nice draft options this year.
Do they need a PG? They have Jackson.