[nick5354Participant]

I was just waiting for my cavs to play and had a thought – how good would a player have to be in order to be picked no 1 in a NBA draft?

I know different things would come into it, depending how good the draft depth of that year is, if there are any possible stars in the draft etc.

Most Gms/scouts that high in the draft like to go for youth and 18, 19 year olds rather than a guy who is going to be 24 by the time they debut in their first game.

So I was curious, say use the 2009 draft and 2010 draft as examples and to be taken over players like Griffin and Wall. Or how good they would have to be in a weaker draft say the 2006 draft. Or just in genral for the no 1 pick.

Interesting notion I think, as a 24 year old rookie is not very attractive to orgnaisations and to use a no 1 pick on.

This could also be applied to a jr as well.

[alingeParticipant]

How has Blake failed as a no.1 pick, 3 time all-star, all-nba last year, 20 and 10 guy first two years and would be this year but plays only 32 mins a night because of Clippers depth. Sorry rant over but generally the good guys go early and normally there is a reason a prospect stays four years usually injuries. The only one I could think of recently is taking Brandon Roy as a college senior with first pick in 2006

[nick5354Participant]

This is not a bout Griffin living up to no 1 it was just an example at how good a senior player would have to be in order to be picked before griffin for that no 1.

[omphalosParticipant]

See, I’ve been thinking about this, and with the new cap rules, having an older prospect might be a good thing. If a player develops in college and comes out ready to play, you have more years of that guy closer to his peak than you would with an 19-20 year old prospect, and you’re still paying him the rookie scale despite his advanced game; this way you don’t have to worry about re-signing him just when he gets good.

Does that make sense to people? I haven’t really expressed it very well.

[phila9012Participant]

I dont think it will happen, unless a playoff team or a team going for the now was picking, and that senior was by far the best prospect. Teams always take the player who they think is the best and has the most potential and is likely to reach that potential. And there is noway a player stays that long in college to be able to be a senior and be the number one pick.

[Olynyk 4 NPOY]

Not only would you have to put monster stats…. athleticism would have to be top notch, and your game style to be nba-friendly.

[nick5354Participant]

So let’s say you’re a SF 6’9, monster length and great athleticism and a late bloomer putting up 25/10/4. He is a lock down defender, great motor and smooth J. This player is best slashing and likes to go in for the boards well. He also has a big body.

[sammybuckeye13Participant]

I think the next senior to be taken first overall will be just like the last couple seniors to go first overall, Bogut and K-Mart, guys with confidence-inducing college resumes (both won POY), two-way potential as elite defenders as well as capable scorers and the promise of short-term as well as long-term value. The world-class speed demons, skywalkers and future pre-injury Greg Odens will have all entered before filing a diploma request. I couldn’t tell you which senior has the best chance of being next to break the mold (there have only been two taken first in the past 12 years and not since ’05), but I’m guessing he’ll fit the mold determined by those last two senior studs.

[Taylor Gang MikeParticipant]

If a teams needs a big man and Noel and WCS come back and Zeller, Olynik and Len come back or get hurt then Plumlee could be a senior that goes number 1. But I highly doubt it, prolly a 1 percent chance haha, Funny thought

[WolfRobParticipant]

Still taking Bennet lol

[omphalosParticipant]

Also, Tim Duncan. Enough said.

[NJHooper95Participant]

The player was a stud in high school, but had to go the juco route , spent two years in juco, and then two years producing at high level in a four year college, then it would be possible.

[jonus grumbyParticipant]

I realize players are scouted much better now and a player like this is likely to come out early but a player like Scottie Pippen could go #1. A late bloomer from a small college.

[JoeWolf1]

Yeah, I think it’s possible. A lot of guys have great physical tools, leave early before they are done developing and fade away. I think it’s possible for a guy with great physical tools, to stay and develop slowly and then make a big jump in his senior year, it could happen. If a guy was say, 15/9 his Jr year in a major conference, and then blew up to 24/11 or something like that that was just dominant could make it happen.

I never say never, when it comes to these things.

[JoeWolf1]

Also, 3 Seniors pretty much locked in the 1st round are not 24 years old. With 4 years college eligibility, most guys coming out after 4 years are not 24.

Mason Plumlee is 22, who will turn 23 next month.

C.J. McCollum is 21 and will turn 22 in September

Isaiah Cannon is 21 and will turn 22 in May.

[Author]

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