I really liked the idea of the 'should have stayed' post, and decided to give it a little twist. I want to know if there are any guys who you think should have struck while the iron was hot, and didn't, and paid the price (i.e. drop in stock, injury, etc.). I'm struggling to come up with any at the moment. Any thoughts?
Three guys from last year; Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones and Harrison Barnes (although Barnes didn't drop much). Sullinger and Jones were looking like top 10 locks in 2011. And Barnes seemed to be a top 3 pick.
As much as I agree stock wise with this, I have to say this whole topic depends a lot on the perspective you're looking at it. Barnes showed very good progress last year in the playoffs and fits great with the Warriors. Jones III is still not ready and a top 10 selection one year earlier would have written even more bust all over him.
From a money and stock perspective a lot of players mentioned here seemed to have made the wrong choice staying one more year and Marcus Smart might drop next year due to way better competition but I respect his decision a lot to grow as a player in college.
I just saw an interview of Jabari Parker where he said that he has a great chance to get a premier education in college and wouldn't be surprised if he stays more than one year in college. Not everybody is just looking at the millions who should be there as early as possible which is a good thing to me.
I believe that Lillard or Faried wouldn't be the players the are right now if they declared earlier.
I don't think one more year in college really hurts a player as a whole unless his situation is far from ideal with his team and you shouldn't overlook that many rookies are in a better position with their teams now because they dropped in the draft. Most of the time they drop for a reason because they aren't ready yet and PJIII is a prime example to me. He is still a great talent but has some health issues as well and maybe the time he has to grow as player now helps him to grow into his body.
Anthony Davis had a very late growth spurt and I think all he needs is time to grow into his body and find his position. I know he has the clear #1 draft pick but would he be a worst player by now if he had stayed in college one more year? I don't think so and an 82 game season is incredible brutal to young players who are still developing physically and that's why I think most big men need so much time to develope, they are kids who need to grow mentally and physically into their own. Look how long it took Hibbert to finally find a ballance between strength and mobility.
In general I think more experience and time in college helps players more and the upside of a 19 year old Barnes is still the same as a 20 year old except he had more time learn the game and grow into his own. And btw most of the guys we talk about leave as sophomores and it's not like 2 years in college is the same as a full 4 year player which was still common until the 2K era.
The majority of the Hall of Famers played 3 or more years in college and they still had 12 or more seasons in the league.
marcus smart and doug mcdermott forewent a weak draft for a much stronger one, we'll see but they might not keep their stock
Josh McRoberts, had a solid 2005-2006 season backing up Shelden Williams and would've been a lottery pick coming out as a freshman. 2006-2007 was one of Coach K's worst teams. 22-11 overall and 8-8 in conference is not what you expect from a Duke team. Lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament to Eric Maynor and the VCU Rams. McRoberts moped, complained and played himself into a 37th overall pick by the Blazers.
If anyone proved they should have left for the League after a breakout year, it was PJ. His stock has taken a tremendous hit after the run-ins he's had with the law. Now with his suspension and the NCAA investigation into his dealings surrounding the rental car and runners. I really hope he gets it together. After becoming a starter and showing his talent as a scorer/defender, he could have found a spot in the late lottery to mid first round this draft easily. Hopefully he is able to play, keep his head on straight and show his worth this year at UNC.
Yep nailed it on the head. He would have been a mid first rounder but had a terrible college season and got picked in the late 2nd by the Clippers. Hasn't made much noise since.
i think that from the 2010 draft devin ebanks should have left after 1 year, he missed the begining of his soph season and just sucked thruout that whole year. also from that same draft stanley robinson from uconn, if he had left after his junior year i believe he couldve made a team...still kinda hard to believe that guy isnt on anyones roster
Anybody think Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary might fall into this list?
He didn't go to college, but he was very hyped coming out of high school and I think he should have went to college rather than have gone overseas.
He still is young and has talent, but he rushed his chance at being a pro and now when the big stage (The NBA) came around, he dropped to 39th pick and is barely getting playing time.
I know per 36 numbers arent something you should take THAT seriously but he does post a solid 13 PPG and 9 RPG with 1 BPG with per 36 numbers.
as far as robinson3 and mitch mcgary, i honestly believe they couldve left after this year and things would have definitely worked out for both of them..1 more year in college will only make them better especially because it seems that these 2 are very hard workers. But it makes you think if staying was the best choice for them. Next years draft is going to be loaded and getting drafted will be tough for anybody(let alone being a 1st round pick) i dont know if this was the best choice for anybody this year besides marcus smart. Its almost as if tghe freshmen who stayed to play this upcoming season almost have to consider staying another year after this. I dont know, ussually i like guys to stay but this seems like risky business for the freshmen who stayed last year
Judging from his Twitter feed, Jay Bilas.
Kyle Singler. Not saying he's doing badly now but had he gone in 2010 after the championship run he would be a late-lottery pick.
I'm in favor of any player making the jump whenever they want, it's a free country. But saying Singler was lottery is crazy. Not a chance.
Had a strong tournament run in his freshman year, I remember a few mocks and Jay Bilas had him going around 10 in the draft.
There was quite a bit of hype about him leading up to that draft. Now he has slid back in his sophmore year.
Sheron Collins after his Junior year at Kansas
Na, Collins addressed a lot of concerns about his ability to run the point his senior year. On paper, yes, he scored more as a junior, but he was way more of a combo than a point. His senior year helped him, what didn't was tweaking his ankle in per-draft camps and gaining 10 lbs in a week and a half. Had that not have happened, I think he would have gotten picked late 2nd. Doubt his career would have been much better, but his issue wasn't staying in school too long.
Chris Marcus was a giant Hilltopper who would have gone lottery after his sophomore year, but he went undrafted after injury and substance abuse problems his Jr and Sr years. It's probably a good thing for NBA teams he stayed in school, but I"m sure he wished he would have gone for the paycheck.
a good update on him. He talked about his alcoholism and how it stemmed from him never being comfortable with the spotlight. The more attention he got, the more he drank to block it out. Sad, but he apparently has his life together again. For those who don't know, Chris Marcus was a legit 7'1", 300 + and had really soft hands and a great touch around the rim. Wish he had made it. Seemed like a good guy.
The ultimate in my mind was Terence Morris from Marlyand. Guy was probably a Top 5 lock after the 1999 season with Steve Francis. Instead he stayed both his Junior and Senior seasons and ended up getting drafted #33 in 2001.
I can't remember anyone having that type of fall over 2 seasons.
Won it all as a Junior, would have went lottery. Stayed and the rest is history.
Elias Harris of Gonzaga was considered a lock lottery pick after his Frosh season, but came back to school. Now he'll get a nice non-guaranteed look, but think of the $$ he lost.
yea elias harris is a good 1, last year i was thinking about that too like 'damn this guy might not even get drafted now' hope he sticks on with a team, i dont even know what his situation is if he got signed yet or not but i hope he gets signed
also how about marcus griffin from illinois, he seemed destined for the L
Once upon a time, Aaron Gray was the premier big man in the big east. He would have been a first round lock and potential late lotto pick after his junior season, but he decided to return for his senior year. He didn't necessarily perform worse, its just gave scouts more time to pick out all of his weaknesses like his lack of mobility and sub-par athleticism. Another guy is A.J. Ogilvy from Vanderbilt. He was a first round lock after his freshman season, but waited around too long and ended up undrafted.