I'm starting to prepare early this year for my fantasy keeper league and I have a dilemma. Forget about positions or my league scoring system and just answer this question for me:
Who is more likely to be 18 and 7 or better this year -- Brandon Jennings or Paul Pierce?
I'm concerned that Jennings is now on a team with a bunch of players that need the ball in his hands, and I'm not sure how that will affect his stats. I'm also concerned that if the Pistons actually believe they can make the playoffs this year, that he'll lose 4th q minutes to Billups. The flip side (pardon the pun on the coach) is that he gets the keys to the team and has a great season. I have no idea which way this will go.
Then there's Pierce. He has been the model of consistency throughout his career. However he is one year older and at some point the production does diminish. My question is, will it be this year. I see the nets playing a ton of pick and roll with Lopez and Williams and with Johnson being the better shooter, I have no prediction on Pierce's production at all.
Some thoughtful insight would be appreciated. Thanks
Jennings will most likely be a 15 & 8 kinda guy. Much more of a distributor this year while PP should be a 16 4 & 4 kinda guy.
Also what is the pun on the coach? Maurice Cheeks is the coach, I don't understand
my bad, was thinking flip for some reason
I don't see either averaging 18 and 7. Jennings is the safer bet though if you had to pick one. A lot of players in Detroit are going to need the ball and Jennings will be the one who controls that. I don't see Jennings averaging 18ppg, but his assists will be 7+. 15ppg and 8 assist for Jenning's seems about right. The Nets are going to be hard to predict with statistics. Williams, Johnson, KG, Pierce, Lopez, and Terry are capable of giving you 15+ every night, but I don't see how Pierce could get 18 and 7.
There are fewer guys out there who can get you 7 or 8 assists than can get you 14 or 15 points from the small forward position. Jennings will probably score well too.
Jennings shooting percentages might not be there, but I wouldn't get PP for shooting percentages either. He is getting up there in age and his timing with D Will might be off. I think his efficiency from mid range and long range will go down.
Jennings will be a liability on percentages and turnovers, but he will be good in assists, steals, and probably points too. Pierce will be mediocre in basically everything. If you can get PP late, great. If not he is not a guy to reach on. PP might be that guy this year that gets you 14 and 4 without that many 3 pointers. Just not worth getting excited about.
I think Pierce is a shell of his former self and that his numbers will take a big dive this year. However, Jennings could have his best year ever. The biggest difference with players is public perception, whereas many dislike Jennings, Pierce has a strong and loyal following.
I see Jennings going 19 and 9 and Pierce scoring about 12 a game with 2-3 assists and rebounds per game.
Oh come on man. Why does everyone think his numbers will fall so much? He posted triple-doubles last season and was the best player for the Celtics once Rondo went down.
He's not gonna have the ball in his hands as much, but he'll still score because he's a great shooter and he's gonna get more shots from spot-ups and generally play more offball than he did in Boston. Plus he's still a great 1-on-1 player even at this age and is still gonna get some iso's. The other thing is that Pierce is an underrated play maker and with the squad Brooklyn has and the ball movement a point guard coach like Jason Kidd should implement into the offense Paul should get the same amount of assists as last year, if not more.
I would predict something like 15-4-4. Yes, he's old, but if he's healthy he's not gonna go down so quickly.
Jennings just brings more to the table. He will be top 7 stls, top 7 asts, and top 15 3ptm (while shooting better %s and turning over less than last year). Pierce's #s will take a hit across the board. My guess is 14 pts, 4-5 boards, 3 assists, 1 3ptm, 1 steal. He won't have the ball enough to get his rhythm and the ak47/bench will put a cap on his minutes. Jennings will have the same amount of points (probably 1 or 2 more), way more assists, steals, 3s (and turnovers). No brainer
You could have Jennings on your team for roughly 10 season, while Pierce may reitre after coming season.
Wing players are easiest to pick up a new one, getting a good Pg is harder to do.
Maybe I'm biased since I have Jennings on my keepers team as well.