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Jr. ROXAS 11 years, 6 months ago.
TomShoeSo, it turns out "Mr. PER" John Hollinger is putting up his updated player profiles for this year. I know many people want to look at them, but ESPN can be a real B- when they’re putting up paywalls and shoving the benefits of insider in your face every other article. So, for sh*ts and giggles, also because I’m pulling my hair out waiting for Oct. 30 (start of the regular season), I might as well post them here, for nbadraft.net and the whole internet to enjoy.
On paper, the Kings are one of the best young teams in the NBA. Key word is "on paper." Fitting all these talented young pieces together will be coach Keith Smart’s job this season. It’s clear he’s the right guy after they fired Paul Westphal. Managing Tyreke Evans will be his biggest challenge. With true PGs Isaiah Thomas and Aaron Brooks on the roster, he doesn’t have to try and be a PG anymore. The real question is how well will DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson develop? If either of them take the next step, they could have a shot at a .500 record. As for the playoffs, they have a long shot. If they were in the East, they’d be a playoff team.
QUICK QUESTION: Hollinger is putting up his team forecasts for this season, do you guys want me to try and get those up before the season starts? If I did, I’d have to do them 3 at a time, and that might be a bit of an overload. Leave some feedback in the comments.
Anyway, Kings up, Hornets tomorrow, and the final team in this Profiles series, the Bobcats, coming Friday.
Enjoy.
-TomShoe
PROJECTED STARTERS
ISAIAH THOMAS, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 18.6 4.0 6.8 18.0 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Small, fast, fearless lefty guard who can push tempo, penetrate and draw fouls.
+ More a scorer than a distributor. Much better shooter than advertised.
+ Pressures ball, but size a major impediment on defense. Gets few steals.Analysis
The Kings took Thomas at No. 10 and Jimmer Fredette at No. 60, right? No?While Fredette bombed, Thomas — the final player selected in the 2011 draft — was a revelation who took over the starting point guard role. Most pundits assumed his poor shooting and distribution skills would prevent him from succeeding in the pros, but Thomas shot ably (37.9 percent on 3s and 40.2 percent on long 2s) while ranking 18th among point guards in points per minute.
Perhaps more impressively, the diminutive Thomas shot 55 percent inside 10 feet with a high free throw rate. Between the 3s and free throws, he was sixth among point guards in secondary percentage and seventh in true shooting percentage. Meanwhile, he allayed concerns about his court vision by posting a respectable pure point rating — his 4.37 topped the position median of 4.04.
Defensively, Thomas was a negative, but it’s not as if he killed them either. The Kings gave up 1.8 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court, and opposing point guards posted a 15.7 player efficiency rating against him. The biggest disappointment is that he wasn’t more disruptive with his quickness, ranking in the bottom half of point guards in steals per minute.
Going forward, it’s fair to wonder if his shooting numbers will regress given how much he struggled in college, but if they don’t, it seems the Kings found a point guard solution in the 2011 draft — just not the one they thought.
MARCUS THORNTON, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 20.6 4.6 2.4 17.0 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Aggressive, high-scoring shooting guard who shoots nearly every time.
+ Great open-court speed. Line-drive shot with wild rotation. Rarely turns it over.
+ Undersized defender with average athleticism and poor effort.Analysis
Thornton is one of the league’s most underrated scoring threats, averaging better than 21 points per 40 minutes for a third straight season. He finished eighth among shooting guards in points per minute and did so with solid efficiency. While his true shooting percentage was nothing to write home about, he again had a microscopic turnover ratio for an elite scorer.Thornton has great instincts in the open court and cutting off the ball, although his transition points are aided by rampant cherry-picking. He’ll force jump shots in the half court, however, and he is not an elite shooter. Last season, he made only 34.5 percent of his 3s but attempted more than six a game. Additionally, he had the fifth-lowest assist ratio among shooting guards and badly needs to expand his tunnel vision.
Thornton doesn’t bring the same energy to his defensive play. Opposing shooting guards strafed him for a 17.6 PER, undoing much of the advantage of his offense, and the Kings gave up 1.9 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court — even though Fredette often replaced him. Thornton is undersized and leaks out too much searching for transition layups. He needs to compete more and gamble less.
TYREKE EVANS, G
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 20.2 5.2 5.9 16.9 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Penetrating combo guard who can score and draw fouls. Excellent finisher.
+ Has awkward set shot from outside. Must improve left hand.
+ Plays too much one-on-one. Has defensive talent but must improve focus.Analysis
Evans recovered somewhat from a disappointing 2010-11 season but still hasn’t regained his Rookie of the Year form when he seemed like a rising superstar. The Kings finally realized he wasn’t a point guard and moved him off the ball halfway through the season, but a bigger limitation is his inability to shoot. Evans took an amazing 444 shots in the basket area last season and made 64.6 percent. He is a dominant player if he can get to the rim, and he draws lots of fouls en route.Outside the basket area, it’s a different story. Evans shot 26.5 percent away from the basket, and just over half his shots came from this distance. That’s some amazingly bad shooting for a go-to scorer and largely illustrates why his career hasn’t progressed since his rookie campaign. He still shoots an off-balance set shot from the perimeter and could use a few sessions with a shot doctor.
Meanwhile, he developed some bad habits while the Kings were feting him as the second coming. He still doesn’t run back on defense, while offensively he tends to pound the ball and settles too easily for jumpers.
Evans has the lateral quickness to be an elite wing defender, but he has yet to show the interest. All of his metrics were bad: The Kings gave up 3.3 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court, opposing wingers had a 16.5 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and Synergy put him a bit below the league average. He finished in the top quarter of shooting guards in steals and blocks, but his fundamentals remain limited.
JASON THOMPSON, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 14.0 10.6 2.0 15.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Active, lean big man who is almost perfectly average at nearly everything.
+ Good finisher but subpar midrange shooter. Prefers faceup to post.
+ Defensive tweener. Lacks strength to defend big 5s. A bit slow for a 4.Analysis
What was it: A classic case of a big guy starting to get it after a few years in the league or a classic case of a guy stepping up his play in a contract year just before he’s about to get paid for the first time?Whatever it was, I’m a big fan of what Thompson did over the final two months of the season. He showed more patience in his post-ups, cut his fouls and generally looked like the light bulb had turned on. Most notably, Thompson took half as many jump shots in similar minutes, sticking to his knitting inside and benefiting from a 65.8 percent mark in the basket area.
For the season, he shot a career-best 53.5 percent, and it would have been an even better season if not for his free throw struggles. Thompson had one of the highest free throw rates at his position but converted only 60.2 percent from the stripe. As a result, a potentially great true shooting percentage was merely good. Additionally, he ranked in the top third of power forwards in rebound rate.
Defensively, Thompson will never be an elite performer he is something of a "4.5" who struggles with physical centers but is uncomfortable on the perimeter. Nonetheless, his metrics weren’t bad last season, and it seemed playing as a nearly full-time 4 spared him much of the paint physicality that bothers him.
DEMARCUS COUSINS, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 25.6 13.9 2.7 22.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Overpowering big man with great footwork. Outstanding rebounder.
+ Struggles with pace of game. Conditioning an issue. Willingly takes charges.
+ Low-percentage offensive player. Takes bad chances with passes, shots.Analysis
Well, he’s getting there. Cousins led all centers in points per 40 minutes and was seventh in the NBA in rebound rate, as he simply overwhelmed some opponents physically. This can best be seen in the hordes of fouls he drew — 7.4 per 40 minutes, the third most in the NBA.Cousins’ conditioning improved, and he dealt with spots of fatigue better, despite a less-than-optimal substitution pattern that saw him at times play 15 straight minutes of each half before coming out. Cousins had the best assist quality of any big man — when his passes worked, teammates got layups and dunks — and cut his turnover ratio significantly from a year earlier.
That said, plenty of rough edges remain. Cousins makes poor decisions all over the place and was a low-percentage scorer from every spot on the court. Even in the immediate basket area, he converted only 56.7 percent, a very low rate for a big. He is a half-decent midrange range shooter (38.9 percent) but indulges this shot far too often.
His low-post game remains raw too. Cousins still stops the ball on every catch and doesn’t convert enough to justify it. He made only 30 percent of shots from 3 to 9 feet, on the heels of a 30.4 percent mark as a rookie, but keeps firing, dragging down his shooting percentage. And despite his overpowering physicality, he didn’t get to the line with abnormal frequency.
Defensively, it’s a similar story. He led the league in offensive fouls drawn (although not per minute) and offered physical post defense. However, he was beaten routinely in transition. Often it’s not for lack of hustle; he just labors up and down the court.
In the half court, his high rate of steals and propensity for fouls go hand in hand. He doesn’t move his feet on defense and just reaches instead, constantly picking up cheap touch fouls as a result. While he cut the fouls last season, he still commits enough to limit his minutes.
RESERVES
JIMMER FREDETTE, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 16.5 2.5 4.0 11.4 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Shoot-first point guard with deep range off the catch. Rarely penetrates.
+ Phenomenally bad defensive player. Lacks length, agility to defend one-on-one.
+ Powerful legs but lacks length. Too small to guard 2s. Awful rebounder.Analysis
Fredette came in billed as a shooting specialist and shot 36.1 percent on 3s and 36.3 percent on long 2s. That’s a problem.I’d argue the bigger problem is at the other end, though. He was beyond hopeless on defense and needs to show dramatic improvement to stay in the rotation. New Orleans posted up Greivis Vasquez against him, for crying out loud, and nearly every other opponent immediately attacked Fredette as soon as he checked in. Opposing point guards had a 17.9 PER against him and Synergy rated him well below average, but even those numbers shortchange how flammable he was; he simply can’t guard anybody in individual defense.
Offensively, he had some issues too. While he scored at a decent clip (16.3 points per 40 minutes), he struggled at the point, especially dribbling against pressure, and had the lowest assist ratio of any point guard. Fredette drew exceedingly few fouls (48 free throw attempts all season), primarily because he couldn’t get himself into the lane. Even when he employs shot fakes, it’s just one dribble in for a shorter jumper.
Finally, Fredette had the league’s second-lowest rebound rate at a piddling 3.5 percent of missed shots when he played.
He’ll almost certainly shoot better this season and may carve out an Eddie House-type of career as a result, but between his struggles at the point and his inability to defend anything even remotely ambulatory, this was a serious reach at No. 10 of the 2011 draft.
THOMAS ROBINSON, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Beastly power forward who dominates on glass. Athletic, tough-minded finisher.
+ Perimeter game needs work. Moves need refinement. Should be solid defender.Analysis
Robinson was a no-brainer pick when he fell to No. 5 in the draft. His prodigious rebounding alone was a major reason to nab him, as he racked up the best defensive rebound rate and the best overall rebound rate of any prospect. Robinson accomplished both by comfortable margins, despite Kansas having played the nation’s toughest schedule. Between Robinson and DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings should absolutely destroy opponents on the glass.Robinson also has some skill to get shots at the basket, especially posting up or making quick moves off the dribble. He is a bit short for a 4 and shot only 50 percent on 2s, an indication that he may have some issues finishing against size. Similarly, his other stats are more solid than great.
Still, he’s such an overwhelming force on the glass that he almost can’t help but be a productive NBA power forward, and he is athletic enough that his game may evolve in several directions.
AARON BROOKS, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 19.4 2.6 6.7 13.6 (Stats are per 40 minutes) | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Lightning-quick shoot-first point guard. Deep shooting range. Good handle.
+ Tends to pound ball looking for shots. Doesn’t see floor well. Can play selfish.
+ Subpar defensive player. Small, slim and can be beat laterally.Analysis
Brooks played in China last season after a disappointing 2010-11 that saw him sulk after the Rockets didn’t extend his contract and respond by forcing shots in bunches. Brooks only shot 29.7 percent on 3s in his last pro season, but he’s a much better shooter than that in reality and should be a big help for a Kings team that struggled to space the floor.He’s also plugged into the right role as a backup point guard who can look for his shot freely without worrying so much about involving others. The danger with Brooks is that he just dribbles out the shot clock searching for his own offense instead of making a quick decision. But his quickness is a game-changer, and he won’t be as exposed defensively since he’s coming off the bench.
CHUCK HAYES, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 7.1 9.4 2.7 10.1 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Ace post defender who is physical and quick. Can guard any spot on floor.
+ Terrible foul shooter with bad hitch in stroke. Good passer. Shoots only layups.
+ Solid rebounder but a below-rim player. High-character guy. Great toughness.Analysis
Hayes had a heart problem and a shoulder injury and looked heavy all season, leading to a hugely disappointing first campaign in Sacramento. Coming off perhaps his best offensive season, he had one of his worst, averaging a meager 6.6 points per 40 minutes and shooting 42.9 percent.You could wonder at times if the Kings had ever seen Hayes play before. They kept passing to him on the low block, and more than half his shots came away from the basket. In Houston, more than two-thirds of his tries came inside the charge circle.
Hayes didn’t have his usual defensive impact either. He was solid, but given his low offensive production, he needs to be a major plus defensively. Last season, that was a tough argument to make. Finally, his normally solid rebound rate dipped to 57th out of 63 centers.
Historically, undersized bigs age poorly, and Hayes is 29. While he should be able to rebound somewhat from last season with better health, it appears the Kings paid for a career year and are now eating the rind.
TRAVIS OUTLAW, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.4 4.7 1.4 9.1 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Average outside shooter but can reliably jump over defenders to get off a shot.
+ Plays best as small-ball 4. Athletic but uncoordinated. Struggles moving laterally.
+ Poor rebounder for size. Lacks strength. Rarely goes all the way to rim.Analysis
One of the great mysteries of the universe is why the Kings bid on Outlaw’s amnesty auction, putting him on the books for four years despite a brutal 2010-11. No answer appeared last season. Outlaw shot 34.3 percent to go with his usual miserable defense, with his reliance on long jumpers becoming increasingly problematic given that he shot 23.8 percent outside of 10 feet.Outlaw also had an inexcusably low rebound rate, and his defensive stats were bowl-you-over bad. Opposing small forwards had a 25.5 PER against Outlaw, while at the 4 they compiled a 19.7 mark, according to 82games.com. Synergy once again rated Outlaw among the worst defenders in basketball, as he lacks strength and coordination.
Going forward, one imagines Outlaw may shoot better — could he do worse? — but given his other shortcomings, it’s not likely to matter much. He is not anywhere near rotation caliber and is unlikely to play much unless injuries decimate the Kings on the wings.
FRANCISCO GARCIA, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 11.6 4.9 1.8 10.5 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Tall, thin wing player with good outside shot. Handles ball well for size.
+ Subpar athlete. Doesn’t penetrate often. Can’t elevate or finish.
+ Good intensity on defense but lacks athleticism to guard top scorers.Analysis
Garcia turns 31 in December and had his worst season since his rookie year, so there’s a real concern that this is the beginning of the end. Look deeper, however, and it may be more a case of a changing role and cold shooting.Garcia shot just 37.6 percent, with the biggest problem being that he took mostly 3s and didn’t make them (29 percent). He also created fewer shots and earned only 30 free throw attempts all season. As a result, he struggled to stay in the rotation even though the Kings’ small forwards were terrible.
Garcia’s ballhandling numbers also dipped. Basically, he was just a spot-up shooter, and not a particularly good one. He has shot much better before, however, and is likely to do so again. If so, he can do some damage as a spot-up guy.
Defensively, he remained an active presence, finishing second among small forwards in blocks per minute and 10th in steals. Synergy gave him poor marks, but the Kings gave up 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court, and his opponent PER (14.2) was solid.
He is not terribly athletic but is a helpful, long, team defender. If the shot recovers, which it should, he’ll remain a solid reserve.
JOHN SALMONS, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 11.4 4.2 3.1 9.3 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Ballhandling winger who has declined dramatically in recent seasons.
+ At peak, can create shots off dribble. Decent long-range shooter.
+ Solid defensive player at either wing spot. Good passer but has selfish streak.Analysis
Salmons somehow avoided the amnesty ax despite a miserable season at age 32 and having three years left on his contract, although the third is only partially guaranteed. He started 32 games before the Kings became sufficiently horrified by his play, and the results were pretty brutal. He ranked in the bottom 10 small forwards in scoring, free throw rate, true shooting percentage, rebound rate, secondary percentage and PER.The free throw free fall was particularly alarming, as Salmons earned only 45 freebies all season after posting solid rates in his previous two seasons in Milwaukee. Not surprisingly, he also had fewer attempts in the basket area, with only 14.5 percent of his shots coming from there. From outside, Salmons slumped to a career-worst 29.5 percent on 3s, although he made a more respectable 41.2 percent of his long 2s.
If you’re searching for good news, Salmons ranked sixth at his position in pure point rating and often acted as the de facto point guard when Fredette entered the game. He remains a halfway decent defensive player, although his numbers slipped at this end too.
Overall, one might expect his 3-point percentage to recover a bit. But given his age and steady decline, his days as a rotation player may be over, and a 2013 amnesty likely beckons.
JAMES JOHNSON, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 14.2 7.3 3.3 14.0 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Overaggressive, erratic combo forward with scoring skills. Plays out of control.
+ Quick but turnover prone and a shaky outside shooter. Can overpower 3s inside.
+ High-energy, effective defender. Gambles and fouls a lot, but creates havoc.Analysis
Johnson is a high-energy, high-mistake player, but last season he finally began to turn the corner on having the energy to offset the mistakes. Defensively, he has become a real force, leading all small forwards in blocks, ranking eighth in steals and, um, finishing third in fouls. His energy translates to the glass too, where he was 10th at the position in rebound rate.Johnson played a lot of those minutes as an undersized 4, and while that put him at a bit of a disadvantage defensively, he managed to hold his own on most nights. Meanwhile, it made his offensive shortcomings less of a negative. Johnson can attack opposing bigs off the dribble with less risk of theft given his own shaky handle, and his mediocre outside shot is less of a liability at this spot.
That said, he remains a low-percentage player. Johnson made only 31.6 percent of his shots from beyond 10 feet, but they comprised nearly half his shot attempts. Worse, the vast majority of them were long 2s. While he cut his turnover ratio significantly compared to the ridiculous levels of previous seasons, he still finished 60th out of 67 small forwards in turnover ratio.
Johnson still has a lot of rough edges, but his progress was an encouraging sign. He just needs to become a little more accurate with the jumper to become a fairly valuable bench player, especially in small-ball arrangements.
TYLER HONEYCUTT, F
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Wingman with advanced passing skills. Disappointing scorer in college.
+ Tall and long for position, blocks shots. Smart player. Lacks strength.
+ Average athlete with limited handle. Can make spot-up jumpers.Analysis
Honeycutt played bits and pieces of 15 games and didn’t completely embarrass himself, shooting only 33.3 percent but chipping in other categories. A similar story played out in 10 D-League games; Honeycutt rebounded extremely well for a small forward, but for a "point-forward" type, his ballhandling numbers were a disappointment. He scored at a very low rate in both stops.All told, it was a small enough sample — just over 200 total minutes — that it’s tough to draw too many strong conclusions either way. But it appears Honeycutt is something of a Boris Diaw-lite, literally and figuratively, and his inability to score will be the major impediment to his sticking in the league.
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cornegg
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Jr. ROXAS
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