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TomShoeSo, it turns out "Mr. PER" John Hollinger is putting up his updated player profiles for this year. I know many people want to look at them, but ESPN can be a real B- when they’re putting up paywalls and shoving the benefits of insider in your face every other article. So, for sh*ts and giggles, also because I’m pulling my hair out waiting for Oct. 30 (start of the regular season), I might as well post them here, for nbadraft.net and the whole internet to enjoy.
Well DC fans, you wanted to win now, so here you go. The Wizards completed a culture change this season, getting rid of several knuckleheads (McGee, Young, Blatche), and replacing them with experienced vets (Nene, Ariza, Okafor, Webster) that could help the Wiz win a few more games and help the young guys develop. Beal was a great pick up through the draft, and they’ve got young talent to spare in Vesely and Seraphin. There’s one problem though. They did get vets to grow Wall and win games, but at what cost? Nene, Ariza, and Okafor have absorbed almost all of DC’s available cap room, and it’s clear that this team doesn’t have enough talent to beat the Heat in 7 games. I understand why Ernie Grunfeld did this, to save his job. He had better hope that Wall makes the Leap, and Beal becomes a star, or they could be in for a long ride on the treadmill of mediocrity.
Anyway, Wizards up, Kings tomorrow, and the team with the smallest number of eyebrows in the league, the NOLA Hornets, coming Thursday.
Enjoy.
-TomShoe
PROJECTED STARTERS
JOHN WALL, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 20.1 5.2 9.5 19.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Big point guard with blinding open-court speed. Loves to push ball upcourt.
+ Excellent defensive potential, moves well laterally but still learning.
+ Good finisher, especially going left, but wretched jump-shooter. Good rebounder.Analysis
There are bad jump-shooters, and then there is John Wall. Last season he shot 3-for-42 on 3-pointers. That is not a typo. He also shot 29.7 percent on 2-pointers beyond 10 feet, which might not have been so bad if he hadn’t taken THREE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY of them in an abbreviated season. Defending Wall merely required stopping his initial tornado burst upcourt after he got the ball, because once he ran a pick-and-roll, opponents just went under the screen and watched him miss.This is so frustrating because Wall would be an All-Star if he was a remotely capable outside shooter. He is solid to excellent at everything else. Watching Wall push the ball in transition is breathtaking, and because of this, he leads the league in fast-break points and earns easy baskets even after opponents’ makes. You can’t find many point guards who shoot 61.9 percent at the rim.
He still makes too many turnovers (56th out of 70 point guards in turnover rate), but he’s a 22-year-old PG still learning the ropes, so this isn’t a big long-term worry. One wishes he could set up his screens better when he runs the pick-and-roll, but he appeared to get better at this late in the season (besides, the jumper is the far greater problem).
Otherwise? He plays hard, draws oodles of fouls going to the rim (second among point guards in free throw rate) and makes his free throws. He’s also a top-notch rebounder for his position and has the size to defend 2s. While he has a ways to go defensively, he has dialed up his effort and become much better at taking charges.
In other words, he’s about where Derrick Rose was after his second season … except that Rose was a passable shooter and Wall is an awful one. The difference impacts Wall’s entire game, and until it gets rectified he’s going to be equal parts exhilarating and frustrating. But if he ever starts connecting, watch out.
BRADLEY BEAL, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Athletic shooting guard with good handle. Good rebounder. A bit short for a 2.
+ Renowned as great shooter but ordinary stats as collegian. Can get to rim.Analysis
Beal is clearly a strong talent, but reports of his shooting ability may be a bit overblown. For him, comparisons to Eric Gordon or Marcus Thornton seem more apt than those to Ray Allen. Beal attempted nearly half his shots from beyond the arc as a freshman at Florida but made only 33.9 percent, and his 76.9 percent mark from the line doesn’t exactly conjure images of Reggie Miller, either.But if he’s the next Gordon, the Wizards still have a heck of a player. Beal is a bit undersized for a shooting guard, but he is athletic, is physical and can handle the ball well enough to play the point in a pinch. Like Gordon, he has shown a knack for overpowering opponents en route to the rim. He was also the third-youngest player in the draft, perhaps helping to explain his fairly ordinary freshman-year stats at Florida.
TREVOR ARIZA, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.9 6.3 3.9 13.3 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Athletic wing who can finish but struggles from perimeter. Will force shots.
+ Solid passer who can create a bit off the dribble. Good rebounder. Rarely fouls.
+ Very good wing defender. Long, quick and reads passing lanes.Analysis
Ariza looks like he has snapped out of hero mode and rediscovered that he’s a role player, which would be fantastic news for the Wizards. The unquestioned owner of the league’s worst shot selection in 2009-10 and 2010-11, Ariza chilled on the 20-footers off the dribble and mostly stuck to shooting jumpers with his feet set.The results didn’t improve his wayward true shooting percentage, unfortunately, as he shot much worse at the basket than in previous seasons, but the notable rise in his assist rate stemmed from a renewed willingness to share the rock. Ariza also improved to 77.5 percent from the free throw line, though that may prove to be a fluke.
Defensively, nobody argues Ariza’s value. He was fourth among small forwards in steals per minute thanks to his length and anticipation, ranked in the top third at his position in blocks and had one of the lowest foul rates at his position. He was the Hornets’ primary wing stopper the past two seasons and will have that same role in Washington. While quick 2s can be trouble for him, he’s a plus defender overall and should provide a notable upgrade in this department for the Wizards.
EMEKA OKAFOR, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.9 11.1 1.2 14.6 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Rebounding center who can protect basket and finish short bank shots in paint.
+ Limited feel for game offensively. Poor foul shooter. A bit undersized for a 5.
+ Strong and a good athlete, but gets shot blocked with shocking frequency.Analysis
Okafor played only 27 games because of injuries and didn’t perform particularly well when he was on the court, posting his worst player efficiency rating (PER) in six seasons and a career low in points per minute. He did shoot well from the field and showed a bit of progress in his midrange game. Although his line-drive J is no beauty, he made 39.3 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet and took more than three a game.The increase in jumpers also reduced how many times he ate leather. Normally among the leaders in own shots blocked, Okafor had only 7 percent of his deliveries returned to sender last season. Overall, however, he didn’t shoot often — a surprise given how starved the Hornets were for offense — and averaged only 13.9 points per 40 minutes.
Okafor also posted a career-low rebound rate and his blocked shot rate was nearly halved. While the injuries and small sample are factors, he’s also 29 and has had a bad back, so there’s a concern that he’s losing some of his spring.
Defensively he’s been a solid, if undersized, center, but, again, he has depended on leaping ability to make up the inches. Washington apparently plans to play him more at power forward, which would seem a less than ideal use of his skills. He’s not adept at chasing stretch 4s around the perimeter and doesn’t have the shooting or ball skills to space the floor. With all that said, he still might be its best option at the position.
NENE, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 17.0 10.2 2.8 17.0 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Strong, quick big man who can run floor. Excellent pick-and-roll defender.
+ Selfless player who will pass up shots. Willing passer. Mediocre shooter.
+ Subpar leaper, doesn’t rebound or block shots well. Has rep as malingerer.Analysis
Nene predictably didn’t shoot 61.5 percent from the floor again, but still played at a near All-Star level that made him worth every cent of his contract … when he played. Alas, the Nuggets grew so frustrated with his sitting out from minor injuries that they unloaded him at the trade deadline. He ended up missing 15 games because of injury for Denver and 11 for Washington, with seven separate gaps in playing time (not including an eighth waiting for the trade to clear).When he plays, it’s hard to argue with the production. Particularly on defense, Nene’s cat-like quickness for his size makes him a very effective player. He’s a rare big who can switch out on guards and get deflections (he was 10th among centers in steals per minute, and he’s not a gambler), but has the size to defend big post players. His one shortcoming is that he doesn’t leap well, which makes him a subpar shot-blocker and rebounder for a center.
Offensively, Nene shot a lot more jumpers last season, and with unusual accuracy by his standards — particularly in Washington. The Wizards called a lot of post-ups for him, but Nene rarely attacks on his isos, instead shooting a 17-footer. He made 41.3 percent from outside 10 feet, but historically he’s fared much worse. Given his inconsistent, line-drive stroke one suspects this is an outlier in a smallish, 126-shot sample.
Nene has always drawn a ton of fouls because he’s very quick off the dribble, runs the floor and can roll to the hoop, but last season’s rate was much lower than usual thanks to all the face-up jumpers.
Big picture, if he plays all the games and attacks the rim he’s an All-Star, and Washington has a great deal for itself. But there’s considerable doubt he’ll do those things.
RESERVES
TREVOR BOOKER, PF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 13.2 10.0 1.3 15.1 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Hustling, undersized 4 who can jump and finish in traffic. Powerful build.
+ Mediocre shooter and ball handler who lacks size to defend against long 4s.
+ Can play 3 in a pinch. Bad foul shooter. Fouls often on defense. Left-handed.Analysis
If they kept a stat for throwing the ball 100 mph off an opponent’s leg while falling out of bounds, Booker would have unquestionably led the league. This has rapidly become his signature move. More generally, Booker was often in that position because he was a walking counterexample to everything Wizard — a tough, hustling, high-energy player making the most of his talents.Booker ranked in the top third of power forwards in rebounds, blocks and steals per minute despite being favorably listed at 6-foot-8. His activity also makes him a viable offensive player despite his poor shooting and ball skills. Booker earned two-thirds of his shots within 10 feet and had a decent usage rate because he cuts off the ball and runs the floor. He also shot an impressive 72.7 percent at the rim, offsetting his woeful 29.4 percent shooting from beyond 10 feet.
The next step is to improve his free throw stroke; Booker draws fouls at a solid rate but offsets their value by making only 60.2 percent. As a result, his true shooting percentage was pretty ordinary.
Defensively, energy only gets him so far. Booker is still undersized, and playing in a system where there wasn’t much, well, system, he took some lumps against long 4s in particular. Opposing power forwards had an 18.4 PER at his expense, according to 82games.com, and the Wizards were outscored by 4.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
JORDAN CRAWFORD, SG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 21.6 3.8 4.4 15.3 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Shoot-happy guard who takes terrible shots. Capable passer when mood strikes.
+ Very quick and has a good handle. Can finish, but poor long-range shooter.
+ Abysmal defender. Undersized for 2. Must add strength and dial up effort.Analysis
Crawford is the most superficial of basketball talents, a high-scoring gunner who takes terrible shots and barely tries on defense. Last season he averaged an impressive 21.4 points per 40 minutes, but only by dragging the offense to its knees — Washington, the league’s 29th-ranked offense, barely improved with Crawford on the floor.Crawford can actually score fairly well inside the arc: He shot a respectable 40.1 percent on long 2s, drew a fair number of fouls and finishes well in transition. But his wayward 3-ball (28.9 percent on four attempts a game) killed him. Given that this actually raised his career average, I’d suggest he needs to dial it back on the long ball and only shoot off the catch when he’s wide open. The between-the-legs, off-the-dribble stuff with 18 on the clock needs to result in an immediate benching.
If his defense doesn’t get him benched first. By every metric, Crawford was awful on D. Synergy rated him in the bottom quarter of shooting guards, and according to 82games.com, opposing shooting guards had a 16.6 PER at his expense. Washington gave up a whopping 9.0 points per 40 minutes more with Crawford on the court. It’s easy to see why: As an undersized 2, he needs to offset his weakness with superior effort, not with cherry-picking and gambling.
KEVIN SERAPHIN, C
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 15.9 9.7 1.1 15.7 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Solidly built, long-armed, raw big man with greatly improved midrange jumper.
+ Can post up for short-range jump hook. Doesn’t draw fouls. Weak ball skills.
+ Tough, aggressive defender who blocks shots. Not a great rebounder.Analysis
The most encouraging thing about Washington’s largely forgettable season was the development shown by Seraphin. After a miserable rookie season, he showcased a much-improved midrange game to go with an effective jump hook in the post and, as a result, dramatically improved both his scoring and shooting percentages.Seraphin shot 42.7 percent on jumpers from outside 10 feet, a completely unexpected outcome that made him a viable offensive player. While this is likely an outlier — he’s still not much of a foul shooter, for instance — he just needs to be adequate from outside because he also scores in the paint. Seraphin’s mastery of the jump hook helped him shoot 46.3 percent from 3-9 feet, an area where most players struggle. The next stop is to add some shot fakes to improve his low free throw rate.
Seraphin also cut his turnovers substantially from his rookie season, although he still gets busted for illegal screens quite a bit. This isn’t all bad: He sets crunching screens, some of the hardest in the league, and Bradley Beal is likely to become a major beneficiary of this.
Defensively, he’s a beast in the making. Seraphin ranked as Washington’s top defender according to Synergy, as the Wizards gave up 6.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. While his opponent data wasn’t very impressive, Seraphin is a solid team defender who can move his feet against the pick-and-roll and ranked in the top quarter of centers in blocks per minute. Additionally, he cut his foul rate dramatically after the full-scale assault known as his rookie season.
JAN VESELY, F
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 10.3 9.3 2.2 11.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Long, lanky, athletic forward who can run the floor. Great leaper.
+ Terrible shooter. Poor handle and hands. Weak basketball instincts.
+ Lacks strength and prone to fouling on defense. Good shot-blocker. A tweener.Analysis
Vesely can do some impressive things athletically and may eventually figure out how to play basketball. Let’s just say 2011-12 wasn’t the season it happened. Among power forwards, Vesely had the worst turnover rate, second worst secondary percentage, second worst foul rate and third worst free throw percentage. He averaged 9.9 points per 40 minutes, he shot 10-for-72 from outside the charge circle and his first NBA free throw didn’t hit anything. For the sixth pick in the draft, I think it’s safe to say he was a disappointment.There have been other good players who couldn’t shoot, especially at his size, but more worrisome is that he just doesn’t seem to have any feel. He can run the floor and dunk, and will occasionally make some amazing blocks. His length can be a factor on defense, too; he ranked in the top quarter of power forwards in steals per minute.
But he has no strength at all, especially in his lower body, and was mauled in the paint. Vesely committed a foul every 6.9 minutes and didn’t seem totally sure of what he was supposed to be doing half the time. He played better in the second half of the season, but let’s not get carried away — he still wasn’t any good. One can envision him becoming a factor if and when he gets a clue, especially defensively, because his combination of length and leaping is rare. It’s just not clear how or when that might happen.
CHRIS SINGLETON, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 9.4 6.2 1.7 9.8 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Long, tall, active wing defender who gets hands on lots of balls. Fouls too often
+ Has 3-point range but needs feet set and space. Poor offensive instincts otherwise.
+ Mediocre handle and struggles to convert drives. May be better off as a 4.Analysis
Singleton’s rookie year was something of a disappointment. Although the understanding was that he’d be more of a defensive player, he contributed shockingly little offense as a rookie, averaging a meager 8.6 points per 40 minutes with one of the worst true shooting percentages at his position.Break it down and there was nothing he did well offensively. The hope was that he could spot up for corner 3s, but he made only 34.6 percent from downtown. There’s at least a glimmer of hope in that number going forward, but the same can’t be said for his ball skills or finishing. Despite being huge for a wing he shot only 38.9 percent on 2s and made less than half his shots inside 10 feet. He also drew fouls at a low rate.
Defensively, Singleton definitely showed promise. While he fouled with abandon — one every eight minutes, the second worst rate among small forwards — he was sixth at the position in steals per minute and in the top fifth in blocks. The Wizards gave up 6.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with him in the court, and while other data is much less flattering, it’s rare for a rookie to be this solid on defense right away, and rarer still in a program like this one.
Nonetheless, as a big wing with limited offensive skills, in a league that is becoming smaller and faster, one suspects Singleton’s long-term future may be at the 4.
MARTELL WEBSTER, SF
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.5 5.7 1.5 10.6 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Big wing with deep shooting range. Beautiful stroke but only average results.
+ Weak ball handler. Strong but lacks post game. Unremarkable athlete.
+ Willing defender but only average lateral movement. Sidetracked by injuries.Analysis
Injuries appear to have compromised Webster’s mobility, as he didn’t move well at either end and saw his numbers decline on several levels last season. For starters, he again launched lots of gorgeous-looking jumpers that managed not to go in the basket. He shot only 33.8 percent on 3s, which seems implausible given his perfect form, but he’s at a not-quite-good-enough 37.4 percent for his career now.Meanwhile, the rest of his offensive game slipped. Webster became a near-total bystander, ranking 59th among small forwards in usage rate, and shot only 35.6 percent on long 2s. Overall he lost more than five points from his 40-minute scoring average, a decline that rendered him replaceable.
Defensively, it was a similar result. Webster isn’t a great athlete but his effort is solid at this end and he’s big for a wing. Last season, however, he was so easy to blow past that the Wolves played dramatically better with him off the court.
Given the short season and the injuries, I’d suspect Webster’s results can rebound, especially since he’s just 25 years old. But the big-picture story is the same as it ever was: Unless he makes 40 percent of his 3s, it’s tough for him to carve out more than a bit role.
SHELVIN MACK, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 12.8 4.6 7.0 13.4 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Smart, solidly built pick-and-roll point guard. Good handle but lacks athleticism.
+ Disappointment as a shooter. Solid rebounder. Struggles to create offense.Analysis
The book on Mack was the he could shoot but might struggle with the other stuff. In his first season, he struggled with the other stuff as expected … and couldn’t shoot, either. Mack shot only 40 percent from the field and was a crushing disappointment as a floor-spacer, hitting only 12 3-pointers the entire season. The fact he made only 29.3 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet offers little encouragement on this front, nor does his 71.2 percent mark from the line.Mack also struggled to create offense, as he lacks great burst and athleticism. His saving grace was that he was fairly efficient when he wasn’t shooting jumpers; he was above the league average for point guards in pure point rating and drew fouls at a high rate. Mack also surprised by rebounding very well for his position, ranking in the top quarter of point guards.
Defensively, his limitations were clear against speedsters, but he by and large did a solid job. The Wizards sometimes asked Mack to play off the ball in small-ball lineups and he struggled to defend 2s, but he proved adequate against most 1s.
CARTIER MARTIN, G-F
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER N/A N/A N/A N/A Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Spot-up shooting wing with good size. Solid rebounder. Makes few mistakes.
+ C athlete, average at best in one-on-one defense but solid team defender.
+ Good size, but a marginal handle. Can’t create shots or see floor.Analysis
For a second straight season, Martin joined the Wizards at midseason and made an impact with his long-range shooting, and this time it appears he impressed enough to stick for good. He’s shot 38.7 percent and 39.4 percent on 3s the past two seasons, taking more than half his shots from beyond the arc in both campaigns, and didn’t get greedy beyond that.Nearly all his shots were 3s or long 2s, with only one-fifth coming from inside 15 feet. He doesn’t draw fouls, but he rarely turned the ball over because he was shooting off the catch so much. Plus, his scoring rate (15 points per 40 minutes for his career) is unusually high for a catch-and-shoot specialist.
Defensively, Martin isn’t a great athlete and can get caught ball-watching, but we don’t have a great deal of data yet on his overall impact. From subjective observation, I’d describe him as "just good enough to not kill you." He has good size, competes reasonably well and mostly knows where to be, but this isn’t somebody you can ask to guard A-listers one-on-one.
A.J. PRICE, PG
Hollinger’s 2012-13 Projections PTS REB AST PER 13.9 4.2 5.7 12.2 Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card 
Scouting report
+ Shoot-first, pick-and-roll point guard who likes long J’s off the dribble.
+ Average size and athleticism; struggles to defend quality players.
+ Needs to improve distribution and get to rim. Takes too many 3s.Analysis
Price is just good enough to keep getting work. He served as an acceptable Band-Aid during George Hill’s injury and will likely fill a similar role in Washington this season. Nonetheless, one can’t help but wonder how Price would perform if he’d show a little more discipline searching out shots on the pick-and-roll.Price likes to come off a pick-and-roll looking for long jumpers, which would be great if he shot better. But he’s a 30.9 percent career 3-point shooter and continues to take half his shots from beyond the arc, many which also coming off the dribble. Problem is, they don’t go in — he shot 29.5 percent on 3s last season and 33.3 percent on long 2s, neither of which are remotely acceptable for a "go-to" move. As a result, Price had one of the worst true shooting percentages in basketball and dragged down what were otherwise perfectly acceptable numbers.
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