As a Cuse fan, I would not like to see this happen as I love how Mike Hopkins recruits. However, he is a California guy and who knows how long Boheim is going to stick around.
Don't blame you if you go Hop.
He's a great recruiter and good coach with the big men, and I can understand why he would want to leave for a head coaching job, but he's waited a long time on the bench at Syracuse. If he wants the head coaching job at Syracuse, he has it as soon as Boeheim steps down. If he's willing to wait a few more seasons, I don't see why he would leave his alma mater. Obviously he could return home to California, but USC is a basketball powerhouse that has underproduced. The Syracuse coaching job isn't as much of a project for Hopkins to rebuild, but he just has to wait if he wants it.
I'd say it's a 25% chance he leaves. Not only does he need to be offered the job first, but he also has to be willing to leave behind the school he played collegiality at as well as coached for 18 years. If he gets offered the job, I'd put the odds at 40%.
I don't think Hopkins is going to leave, but that's only because I think USC is going to bring Tim Floyd back. I think Hopkins is absolutely willing to leave Syracuse to become a head coach back home a few years earlier than he would be here. I've heard he's very interested in the job, but he isn't USC's first choice.