Not guaranteed but say Blake averages 20 after three years in the league, who else in this draft can do the same. We are giving them 3 years in the NBA. Who else in this draft can you see getting 20 a game? Someone will surprise us and do it. Who?
Blake Griffin, Earl Clark, Chase Budinger, Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans, Jeff Teague, Sam Young, and Dante Cunningham
I can see 20 as possible for all those guys. Cunningham will do well in the NBA people are sleeping on him. Chase and Sam Young I think can score 20 no problem in the league too. Thats what they do put points on the board. They will do it in any league.
Blake and Derozan. I think by year 3 Derozan can really blossom. Griffin might do it year 1 depending on what team he goes to. i dont think the other guys will ever be 1st options on an NBA team, which is not always what has to happen to average 20, but more often than not is necessary.
I dont like this draft either, but there is alway 3 or 4 that will shock you. As much as I dont like this draft, I know they are there. Thats the challenge figuring out who they are.
Blake (95%) - pretty much a lock
Curry (80%) - this guy can put up points in most systems. However, his defense might limit his minutes
Harden (75%) - underrated offensive prowess. Again, defense and toughness might limit minutes
Jennings (70%) - seems like an athletic shoot first pg in 3 to 4 years to me
DeRozan (70%) - good chance he doesn't hit his stride by 3rd year. But if he does... watch out
Evans (70%) - good chance he will become a high volume shooter in 3-4 years. Probably make some of them...
what do you guys think?
Blake Griffin and Tyreke Evans
Tyreke will be one of those players that play on a lesser team and have to carry the scoring load and Blake is just a monster who will get his sooner than later
tli232 I agree with your post man. I don't know who thinks Chase and Young will average 20 points a game. That is funny to me. Chase has a slight chance and Young will not be that kind of score in the NBA.
Twenty points seems like a lot, especially to predict at this point. Like someone previously mentioned, not to many second options average 20 per, so with this draft its hard to see to many doing it from this draft. Blake is an obvious choice, but Derozan has the potential to put up 25. Time will tell.
Since the discussion was predictiong for the next three years my list is as follows. It is very hard to average twenty let alone being a rookie. You have to average double figures in your rookie season to have a shot in there first three years. The NBA is tough. Since the 2000 there are only 19 players that were drafted who averaged 20 for a career.
Michael Redd (2000), Pau Gasol (2001), Gilbert Arenas (2001), Joe Johnson (2001), Tony Parker (2001), Yao (2002), Boozer (2002), Amare (2002), Lebron (2003), Melo (2003), Wade (2003), Bosh (2003), D Williams (2005), Danny Granger (2005), Brandon Roy (2006), Kevin Martin (2004), Al Jefferson (2004), Ben Gordon (2004), Kevin Durant (2007), My point is that we have a ton of All Stars who do not average twenty. This is very tough this season there were 26 players to get 20 none were rookies. Out of every draft there will be on 1-4 players capable.
James Harden- Paul Pierce mold not super athletic just crafty and smart
Demar Derozan- Rudy Gay esque but he has the mean streak needed
Tyreke Evans- reminds me of OJ Mayo, a little taller.
Paul Pierce is 6ft7 with long arms I dont see Harden being the same player. OJ Mayo shot 40 percent from three in college, Evans does not shoot it anywhere as good. Mayo also tested out to a 42 inch vertical I dont see Evans doing the same. Demar will not test out to be 6ft7 like Gay and cant shoot have as decent as Gay did in college. Demar shot 16percent from 3. Rudy shot close to 40.
Do we realize how hard it is to average 20 a game??? It's a pretty tough number to reach. To be honest, we are grossly overestimating how easy it sounds to average 5 pts a quarter, EVERY quarter of EVERY game.
Consider: only 20 players in the entire NBA averaged more than 20ppg this year. That's less than one 20ppg scorer per team, less when you realize that New Jersey and New Orleans had 2 players each. So only 18 teams featured a player that had a guy that dropped 20 a night!
In addition: the 2003 class had 5 of the 20 players (!) that averaged 20ppg - lebron, d-wade, bosh, melo and David West. That is a staggering number for one draft class and 2003 is widely recognized as one of the GOAT classes. Here is more break down:
2004 = 2 (howard, gordon)
2005 = 3 (CP3, granger, Harris) *also a good class*
2006 = 1 (Roy)
2007 = 1 (Durant)
The rest are from drafts in the late 90s/early 00's.
So we should expect about only 2-3 guys MAX to average 20 a game - NOT 8. So sorry JordanC20 but you gotta cut your list down six players...
My vote: just one player between Griffin, DeRozan or Harden. That's it. Which is not to say none of the other guys will be good players, but 20ppg is pretty prestigious.
Everyone knows Derozan has the talent, but will he be in a good system and improve shot selection. Ty Lawson will not average 20ppg probably ever, mostly b/c teams ideally want their pgs scoring 20. Until his shot gets better (excellent 3pt% b/c he took a ton of open threes and had time to set up mostly, along with the shorter diastance), he will need to rely on blowing by defenders and hoping he can bang amongst the big boys. Harden can and will do it eventually, too talented and smart not to do it (FTAs will be a big part).
*** Whoever thinks Dante Cunningham will ever average 20 pts/game should edit their posts before losing all credibility.
20 ppg is a solid statistical landmark, but let us not forget, lots of players have hit this mark at some point, but that doesn't make them All-Stars :Cuttino Mobley, Ricky Davis, Ben Gordon, etc, etc.
Blake G. - 80%, although, he could just as well be dropping something like 18 and 12 in his 3rd year in the league.
James Harden - 60%, he is the most logical non-Griffin choice to be dropping 20ppg, but could just as easily do somehting more like 17-5-5.
Flynn/Maynor/Curry - 33%, In the right situation, one of these guys could put up 20ppg by season 3, a la Ben Gordon.
Demar Derozan - 25%, he'll have to mature pretty fast to hit 20ppg by his 3rd season, but he has the ability.
Jordan Hill - 20%, has the low-post ability and size to give him a chance.
Field - 10%, guys like Rubio, Jennings, Clark, Henderson, Budinger, Ellington could all shock the world.