NBA Draft: Stock WatchBy: Aran_Smith

By Aran Smith

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is in the books, and the Cinderellas
and upset bids fell short in most instances making for a relatively under whelming
start to the tournament. But the good news is that more elite level teams are
left which should make for an extra exciting second and third weekend of games.
Chalk was the predominant theme as every 1,2 and 3 seed advanced and only Arizona
(12) and Purdue (5) made it through from non-chalk teams (which has to be a record).

Blame it on quality coaching, as nearly half the field: 7 out of the 16 coaches
remaining have won an NCAA title. Also, 7 of the 9 title winning coaches that
were in the tournament advanced (Jim Calhoun, Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski,
Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim, and Bill Self). And the two that did not (Gary Williams
and Tubby Smith) were overachievers, taking inferior teams into the tourney in
the first place.

A number of draft hopefuls had great efforts which enhanced their stocks, while
others fizzled in the limelight of March Madness. Here’s a look at the draft hopefuls
that helped themselves and hurt themselves during the first weekend of the tourney.

Rising

DeMar Derozan 6-6 210 SG USC Fr.

Derozan came into USC as one of the most high profile
prospects in the nation, but after starting the year off unimpressively, he has
come on like a house on fire in the final month. Beginning with his late season
conference play and then helping USC to win the Pac-Ten tourney.

In what will probably be his final two collegiate (tourney) games, he scored 18
points in each showing a sweet jump shot to accompany developing skills. He also
proved to be a handful for the #2 seed Spartans who knocked down shots but struggled
to contain the standout freshman.

Though USC fell short against Michigan State, Derozan flashed his world class
athleticism on multiple occasions getting out on the break for take off (dunk)
and using his speed and athleticism to his advantage on the boards and in loose
ball situations.

His one year at USC ultimately paid off considerably, showing a great example
of why the one year draft rule is actually a good thing.

He still lacks a three point shot and relies too heavily on his athleticism, but
he’s apparently found his mid range shot, and it has completely transformed his
game. He’s starting to "get it". In the month of March (over his final
7 games) DeRozan averaged 19 ppg on 58% fg.

Derozan’s solid showing in the tournament has his stock on the rise and scouts
now feel that he is likely to be a top 10 pick in the draft this year. Despite
being seen as an upside pick, Derozan is currently projected to be taken 6th overall.

Sam Young 6-6 220 SF Pittsburgh
Fr.

Pitt faced a tough Oklahoma State match up in round two, and found themselves
in a dogfight. In the first half with the Cowboys threatening to build a double
digit lead, it was Young’s scoring (24 points in first half) that neutralized
Oklahoma State’s hot shooting.

	Sam Young AP Photo

With Oklahoma State threatening late, Young rose to the challenge
knocking down a key three pointer with 3:14 left to help Pittsburgh reclaim the
lead. Young’s 32 points and 8 boards showed both his scoring prowess and his ability
to step up in big games.

Young has really learned to stay with in his game, doing what he does well. His
exaggerated pump fake is amazingly effective as he essentially raises the ball
way over his head on the fake. Such a slow and dramatic fake might make it easier
for elite level defenders to recover before he makes his move, however it has
been a highly effective aspect of his game getting opponents off balance and setting
up drives and shots for himself.

Young’s outside shot was on display on Sunday as he drained 4/10 from 3 (12/20
overall) and hit the key shots down the stretch to help Pitt preserve the victory.

Counteracting Young’s huge wingspan, excellent athleticism and developing shooting
skills is the fact that he’s somewhat mechanical with his ball handling and offensive
game.

Young has been projected as a late first rounder for most of the season, and his
tourney performance so far has definitely boosted his stock, currently 14 (late
lotto in the mock) but it will likely take a big finish and possibly a Pitt title
or a run to the title game to give him a legit shot at cracking the lottery with
a stampede of unexpected prospects potentially declaring.

	Blake Griffin AP Photo

Blake Griffin 6-9 252 PF Oklahoma
So.

Commentators are actually saying Blake Griffin is NOW the obvious #1 pick for
this year’s draft, but in reality he has been the surefire #1 pick for some time
now.

You will remember NBADraft.net has rated Griffin the #1 pick of the 2009 draft
since mid
January of 2008, nearly a full year and a half before the draft, and nearly
a full year before any of the competition rated him there.

He’s the best player in the country, and he’s playing up to it, raising his level
of play through two games in the tourney averaging 30.5 ppg, 15 rpg, on (78%)
25/32 shooting.

Griffin is so focused he will not be baited into a fight, which opponents appear
to be fully aware of, as they routinely take cheap shots at him and play him overaggressive
as sort of a "Shaq like" defense mechanism. This partially explains
the shady late game flip by a Todd Bozeman coached post player Ameer Ali.

Ali must have figured what worked for DeJuan Blair on Hasheem Thabeet would work
for him on Griffin as he pulled the same maneuver only in a deadball situation
with no basketball involved.

Blake has too much to lose right now as a blow up and subsequent brawl would cost
him a game’s suspension and media scrutiny about his lack of poise and maturity.
But should that type of treatment continue at the next level, have mercy on the
player on the receiving end when Griffin finally snaps and makes an example of
someone.

	Terrence Williams AP Photo

Terrence Williams 6-6
220 SG/SF Louisville Sr.

Williams game has made huge strides this season. His
numbers on the year show the impressive versatility he possesses: 12.7 ppg, 8.7
rpg, and 5 apg. He’s also averaging close to 40% from 3, an aspect of his game
that before this season was a major weakness: outside shooting, has vastly improved.

The Louisville Siena match up turned into the "Terrence Williams show"
as he single handedly took the game over. With 8 minutes left in their second
round match up with Siena, down by 4 (63-59) it was Williams’ heroics which helped
Louisville retake control of the game.

Williams scored in close to the basket and then after a few scoreless possessions
for both teams hit a three pointer to recapture the lead. Louisville would never
trail again as their defense held tight and they quickly built a 5 point lead
and cruised to victory.

TWill’s game high 24 pts (9/14 fg) and 15 rebounds speaks to his added maturity
and shows that he’s able to step up in big games. He is making a strong push to
be one of, if not, the top senior selected in this year’s draft, and if he’s able
to lead Louisville to the title, it would enhance his draft stock further.

Wayne Ellington 6-5 190 SG North Carolina Jr.

The "Duke" of the NCAA tourney, Ellington has been as smooth as his
namesake showing off one of the sweetest strokes on the college level. He has
knocked down 20 of 32 shots (63%) after two games averaging 24 points, he also
totaled 7 assists and 11 boards over the two games. He will look to continue his
hot streak as North Carolina looks to advance to the Final Four.

Ellington failed to guarantee a spot for himself in the first round last year
after declaring early and competing in the Orlando predraft camp. He had a solid
though unspectacular showing but measured 6’5 in shoes with a 6’7 wingspan, which
is bigger than he appears.

Ellington has a lot to gain by North Carolina advancing to the Final Four and
potentially winning it all. The end of the first round is sure to get crowded,
but a strong performance out of him and a national championship would give him
a great chance of claiming a spot.

	Marcus Thornton AP Photo

Marcus Thornton 6-4 210
SG LSU Sr.

Thornton used an excellent tourney performance (55 points in 2 games, 54% fg)
to open scouts eyes.

He carried an upstart LSU team into the second round of the tournament where they
hung with North Carolina for 30 plus minutes. At times Thornton was absolutely
deadly, knocking down 3 pointers with just an inch of daylight.

He also was sensational in their first round win over Butler scoring 30 points
on 10-15 shooting (3/4 from 3) in a 4 point win.

His shot is pure and he has done an excellent job rounding out his game. He can
score off the dribble, pulling up, he can spot up, and he can also post players
up and utilize his great body strength. He’s also become a solid defender, although
he’ll have to work twice as hard with a size disadvantage in the NBA.

Thornton has been inching closer to the late first/early second round area for
the past couple months. Despite being an undersized shooting guard, scouts don’t
rule him out as a guy who could potentially play himself into the late first round
with great workouts.

Ed Davis 6-9 230 PF North
Carolina Fr.

Davis has become the Tar Heels most important player off the bench. His shot blocking
ability and rebounding give them a big boost when starters Tyler Hansbrough or
Deon Thompson grab a breather. Davis is having an excellent tourney averaging
12 ppg, 77% fg, 6 rpg and 3 bpg.

Davis is still raw and needs another year to bulk up and improve his skills, but
the potential he is showing is incredibly intriguing. His length, athleticism
and potential to add strength gives him a lot of promise. Although he’s more of
a shot blocker, (his 2 blocks per game came in just 18.9 mpg) his soft touch and
relentless attacking of the rim is reminiscent of a young Amare Stoudemire (without
the strength).

It would be a big mistake for him to leave this year as although he’s a lock first
rounder, odds are he would be a late first rounder (15-25), whereas returning
to UNC would give him a chance to be a top 3-5 pick next year. Davis is currently
projected as the #3 pick in the 2010 draft.

	Cole Aldrich AP Photo

Cole Aldrich 6-10 250 PF/C
Kansas So.

A strong case could be made that Aldrich has had the strongest single game performance
of anyone in Kansas’ second round game against Dayton as he registered a triple
double the hard way with 10 blocks including 13 points and 20 boards!

He also played extremely well in the Jayhawks opening game against North Dakota
State registering 23 points and 13 boards.

The Kansas bigman has a 7-5 wingspan allowing him to play much bigger than 6-10
and also giving him a great chance to play center at the NBA level.

Aldrich has shown excellent development in his sophomore year and would have a
good chance to be a lottery pick if he entered the draft this year. He would benefit
by returning to KU and further developing his post moves, however he may find
it difficult to turn down a guaranteed spot, and bolt.

Stanley Robinson 6-8 220 SF UConn Jr.

Robinson has long been a guy that just never could seem to maximize his abilities.
He’s a world class athlete with ridiculous length but struggles with consistency
and focus. So far he’s been tearing it up for the Huskies averaging 18 ppg over
2 games on 56% shooting.

Robinson is a player who translates well to the next level but will need to develop
his skills. He currently struggles with his shot, thriving on his athleticism
crashing the boards, however he is showing some signs of developing his midrange
game.

So far the games have been blowouts for UConn, so it will be interesting to see
how Robinson does against more formidable competition such as Robbie Hummel and
Purdue, and a Memphis team looming in the Elite Eight. Robinson is said to be
a guy that will look to enter the draft this year, although returning for his
senior year would give him a good shot at being a first rounder.

Made a Name for Themselves

	Ben Woodside AP Photo

Ben Woodside 5-11 185 PG North
Dakota St.

Woodside scored a tourney high 37 points in their first round match up with Kansas.
He’s a gutsy point guard with solid speed and excellent scoring ability.

He may lack the size (5’11) and athleticism to make it at the next level but he’s
sure to get some looks in workouts and draft camps after putting on a show leading
his North Dakota State team into the dance in their first year eligible, and their
first round loss to Kansas.

Cedric Jackson 6-3
185 PG Cleveland St. Sr.

Jackson’s regular season statistics are very modest at just over 10 ppg, however
he’s got excellent size and athleticism for the position and shows the ability
to defend and run a team. He stepped up huge, outplaying highly regarded Jeff
Teague, making all the necessary plays to keep Wake Forest from getting back into
the game in their first round match up.

While Jackson still has work to do on his game, his weakness (outside shooting)
is something that a team may look at as correctable and take a flyer on him in
the second round.

Ronald Moore 5-11 175 PG Siena Jr.

Moore gave everyone two "shining moments" against Ohio State with his
last second 3 pointer to tie the game in OT, and then his deja vu, top of the
key 3 pointer (with 12 seconds left) to take a 2 point lead and clinch the win
in double OT. Moore will go down in University of Siena lore after producing the
biggest shots of the tourney thus far.

Moore unfortunately came back to Earth in round 2 against Louisville scoring just
3 points on 1-10 shooting. He’s a scrappy, diminutive point guard but currently
not highly regarded as an NBA prospect due to being undersized and under skilled.

But we’re sure to see more of Moore, just as the nets are being cut down in Detroit
(in the one shining moment segment).

Falling

	James Harden AP Photo

James Harden 6-5 220 SG Arizona
So.

Harden was one of the big losers suffering two damaging tourney performances with
so much at stake. In two games he shot a combined 3-18 (16%) giving critics fuel
for the fire regarding his NBA deficiencies.

Against Syracuse, he was far too unassertive for the team leader and star that
the Sun Devils rely on him to be. He’s highly unselfish, allowing the game to
come to him, but against Syracuse’s collapsing zone, Harden needed to force the
action sooner and take over.

The biggest knocks against Harden from NBA scouts are the fact that he struggles
to go right, and his lack of quickness and ability to score against elite level
athletes.

Harden is still high on many scout’s lists although some feel he’s fallen into
the 6-12 range as opposed to a top 5 pick as he’s currently projected on our mock
draft.

It should be noted that Arizona State’s talent outside of Harden and Jeff Pendergraph
was virtually nonexistent. That lack of talent surrounding them caught up with
them as they ran into a well oiled machine in Syracuse with 8 quality D1 players.

Harden remains an intriguing prospect due to his off the charts intangibles and
team focus, although sexier picks such as Demar Derozan, Brandon Jennings, Earl
Clark, and even Gerald Henderson could potentially overtake him.

Harden has made comments to the effect that he’s still undecided about entering
this year, but most scouts and insiders feel that was just an initial reaction
and that it’s a foregone conclusion that he will enter the draft this year.

	Jeff Teague AP Photo

Jeff Teague 6-2 175 PG Wake
Forest So.

Before the year, the consensus was that Teague was a talented, young PG with great
promise who just needed time to figure out the position.

After leading Wake Forest to a torrid start with wins over both North Carolina
and Duke and an 18-1 record including a #1 ranking, Teague was riding a wave of
momentum. It appeared as though he was playing too well NOT to declare for the
NBA draft this year. But after Wake Forest’s colossal collapse, Teague’s stock
has taken a dramatic hit.

Scouts seem to be all over the board with him as some still see him as a lottery
pick while others aren’t convinced he’s even a lock for the first round anymore,
going so far as to say he’s been "exposed as a fraud".

He’s a smart kid, so although he’s still got miles to go in learning how to direct
an offense, he has shown the ability to take over games and should improve in
his point guard abilities. All three Wake Forest players are said to be likely
gone, although Teague appears to be the one still wavering on his decision.

Darren Collison 6-0 180 PG UCLA Sr.

After turning down a surefire spot in the first round in both the 2007 and 2008
drafts, Collison returned to attempt to make the fourth time the charm and erase
the bad memories of a disappointing ’08 tourney performance. Unfortunately Collison
was upstaged by Eric Maynor and then by the Villanova duo of Scottie Reynolds
and Corey Fisher.

Maynor showed what Collison couldn’t, the ability to run a team and make plays
for others. Maynor used his speed and strength to muscle Collison and blow by
him getting the Bruin guard in foul trouble. Collison’s teammate Jrue Holiday
played well in his absence, scoring a number of key baskets to quell a late VCU
rally.

While Collison got the key stop on Maynor on the final play of the game, the big
edge went to Maynor 21 points, 7 ast, 2 to, to Collison’s 10 pts, 2 ast 3 to,
in their highly anticipated first round match up.

In Collison’s favor is three final four appearances, incredibly efficient statistics
and an NBA ready game. Will it be enough to get in the first round? It will likely
depend on how many underclassmen declare.