NBA Draft: Stock WatchBy: Aran_Smith

With West Virginia, Michigan State, Butler and Duke in the Final Four, the pool of NBA prospects that teams have left to scout has dried up. Each of the four teams features a player or two with a shot to get in the first round this year but for the first time in recent memory, no player is a unanimous first round lock. Ask 5 different NBA scouts who the top NBA prospect left in the field is, and you might get 5 different answers. There is a wide range of opinions regarding the top prospects still in the tourney as well as the players that have recently been knocked out. After speaking with numerous scouts earlier this week and watching each of the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games, here’s a look at which prospects are rising and falling heading into the Final Four.

Rising

LaceDarius Dunn 6-4 205 SG/PG Baylor Jr.

Dunn’s tremendous junior year and excellent tournament have him firmly on scout’s radar and he is beginning to get some first round buzz.

"Dunn Deal" lit it up averaging 21 over Baylor’s 4 tournament games, leading the team in scoring in each of the final 3. At the college level he’s a go-to scorer at the end of games, who has the ability to knock down shots as well as manufacture shots when necessary. His speed and penetration ability kept Baylor close against Duke on Sunday but in the end the Blue Devil’s size and precision won out.

One of the concerns about Dunn is that he doesn’t get great elevation on his jumpshot, however one scout told me that doesn’t concern him much due to the fact that he has such a quick release and he’s more of a spot up shooter than a guy that is going to be run off screens.

While not a freak athlete, at 6-foot-4, Dunn possesses great speed and athleticism, as he showed the ability to get by Duke guards off the dribble.

Most scouts see Dunn as a solid early-to-mid second rounder if he were to come out, although some are much higher on him. One scout said he thinks he was the 3rd best guard in all of college basketball this year behind Turner and Wall, saying, "He’s an instant offense guy and anyone you talk to around the Big 12 absolutely raves about him." He also feels that Dunn is a first rounder right now.

Dunn gets compared to players such as NBA rookie Marcus Thornton, the New Orleans Hornet who has proven to be a steal taken in the second round, as well as former LA Clipper combo Cuttino Mobley.

Dunn made a statement immediately following their loss to Duke that he would "definitely" return to for his senior year, “I don’t need to test any waters,”.

He very may head back to Baylor for his senior year. But we’ve heard it before, it’s tough to take a statement made minutes after a tournament elimination as a final word.

If he changes his mind, Dunn figures to have an opportunity to grab a late first round spot if he enters the draft this year after such an impressive junior season, particularly in the tournament. Dunn has become one of the biggest sleepers in the country.

Gordon Hayward 6-8 220 SF Butler So.

Conjuring up memories of the movie Hoosiers, or at least attempting to, Indianapolis’ own Butler Bulldogs, led by local hero Gordon Hayward, have beaten the odds and made it all the way to the Final Four.

With possibly the most mild mannered coach in all of college basketball, and one of the top young minds in the game, Brad Stevens (34), the (5 seed) Bulldogs continue to prove that a well oiled machine trumps raw talent.

While Hayward received a fair amount of hype before the tourney and was a top 50 recruit entering college, not many envisioned the sophomore would be able to lead a team so lacking in size and all around talent, so far. The boyish looking 20-year-old from Brownsburg, Indiana (population (14,500) is quickly approaching legendary status.

Some reports have gone as far as to say Hayward is now a lock for the first round after leading Butler to the Final Four. But scouts we have spoken with this week weren’t willing to go that far. Some feel that he’s a likely a first rounder at this point, but others still think he’s a second rounder. It basically comes down to what your philosophy is on tournament play and how much stock you put into it.

One thing is for certain, Hayward has stepped up when it has mattered most, proving to be one of the most clutch players in the tournament. Despite not having standout numbers in the first weekend, it was his memorable defensive stop that helped Butler hold on against Murray State to make the Sweet 16.

In the second weekend, Hayward really shined coming up with numerous big plays. Against Syracuse, he matched projected top 5 pick Wes Johnson with 17 points, shooting a highly efficient 4-for-7 fg (2-for-3 from 3) plus 7-for-8 from the line.

In Butler’s Elite Eight win over Kansas State, At one point late in the first half, Hayward isolated on the perimeter, then drove right getting his defender (Curtis Kelly) off balance and made a nice dribble between the legs, step back three pointer that drew oohs from the crowd. Hayward finished with a game high 22 points and 9 boards.

Hayward doesn’t wow you with explosiveness, but he has solid leaping ability as he showed on a number of dunks in the game.

Hayward and Butler will face Michigan State on Saturday evening.

Ekpe Udoh 6-10 235 PF Baylor Jr.

Udoh followed up an excellent junior season with a strong NCAA tournament.

His stat line against Duke 18 pts, 10 rebs, 6 ast and 5 blks, in what may be his final college game, shows the type of versatility he possesses.

Scouts view him as a very good athlete, though nothing extraordinary. He’s a guy that can block some shots and give you some rebounding, but it’s unlikely his offensive game will ever stand out in the NBA.

He’s willing to mix it up and play physical inside, but his lack of great strength will make things challenging for him in the NBA. He does possess a huge wingspan and his shot blocking combined with his offensive development make him an intriguing prospect in the 15-25 range.

He’s been a player hovering in the mid-late first round and while some scouts feel he has a chance to grab a late lottery spot, others feel he will slide into the later half of the first round.

Regardless, with his solid all around tournament leading Baylor to the Elite Eight, most feel Udoh has cemented a position in the first round.

While there is some speculation that he may ultimately return to Baylor for his senior year, it seems apparent that he will never have a higher stock than where it is now and he could fall from a guaranteed first round pick to being a second rounder next year.

Devin Ebanks 6-7 203 West Virginia So.

Another player with a wide range of projections. How wide? Ebanks is not in the first round on some team’s boards, while others project him as a late lottery pick.

He’s a player we’ve been high on for a long time and remain high on.

We’ve heard through sources that Ebanks would like to be sure he’s a top 20 pick this year, otherwise there’s a chance he will return to West Virginia.

Ebanks has played through a hand injury this season and it has obviously affected his shot. Outside of 5 feet, Ebanks has been ice cold all season (41% fg in the tourney). The hand injury doesn’t seem to be affecting his free throw shooting. He’s been near automatic from the line (26-of-28) 93% from the line in the tournament, knocking down numerous clutch free throws to help West Virginia put away opponents.

Scouts love his defense, length, agility and potential nonetheless. Ebanks is our top prospect left in the NCAA tourney field has as much to gain as anyone from a big performance in Indy.

Jordan Crawford 6-4 205 SG Xavier Jr.

Despite being eliminated in the Sweet 16 by Kansas State, Crawford had another clutch performance in the double OT thriller Sweet 16 game. Crawford has proven to be a fearless
performer who rises to the occasion in big moments of big games.

Scouts remain skeptical about Crawford nonetheless, complaining about his attitude and on court demeanor during the regular season.

The Musketeer sophomore is another classic example (Sean May anyone?) of a player that could jump into the first round due to such a tremendous tournament performance. But according to one scout, "It will take a GM not listening to their scouts, that watched him in the tournament and fell for him. Because the scouts I speak with all think he’s a second rounder."

Regardless, all it takes is one team to like you, as they say, and Crawford’s tourney performance certainly opened eyes to his talent. He’ll have a shot to grab a first round spot in this year’s draft.

John Wall 6-4 190 PG Kentucky Fr.

Although Kentucky bowed out in the Elite Eight falling short of reaching Indy and a shot at winning the title, John Wall kept his status in tact as the prohibitive favorite for the #1 pick.

West Virginia PG Joe Mazzulla torched the Kentucky guards playing the game of his life. Wall struggled defensively as Mazzulla got by him on a number of drives with Wall not anticipating nor getting down in a proper defensive stance. He also struggled in the first half as West Virginia built their lead.

Wall made a solid second half scoring run displaying his jaw-dropping speed and athleticism on drives to the basket. But the Wildcats could never close the gap. Wall shot just 1-for-5 from 3, finishing with 18 points on 7-for-18 shooting. He finished with 5 ast. and 5 to.

Kentucky’s inability to handle and adjust to West Virginia’s zone defense made leading a second half comeback impossible. Scouts don’t feel the loss has much of an impact on Wall’s status, blaming UK’s youth and inexperience.

Scouts feel that Wall’s upside is too much to pass on in favor of Turner. A scout told me this, "If they were the same age, (Turner is 22 months and 21 days older) there might be some debate, but with Wall’s superstar potential, with a chance to be a top 10 NBA player someday, it makes it very difficult to pass on him".

JP Prince 6-6 195 SG Tennessee Sr.

For Tayshawn’s little Cousin it has been a long journey to respectability but after a very impressive run in the tournament, he’s entered the second round picture.

JP had another ho-hum season averaging just below 10 points per game. Tennessee’s system makes it difficult for wing players such as Prince to standout. His 14.8 ppg on 64% fg in the tourney is a positive sign out of Prince. In the Vol’s season ending loss to Michigan State, Prince was a perfect 5-5 fg and 2-2 ft.

Prince is a long, rangy wing with good quickness and defensive ability. He has struggled to live up to expectations throughout his career at Tennessee, but despite never fully realizing the potential he showed in high school, the ability he shows to impact games make him an intriguing prospect.

Evan Turner 6-7 217 SG/SF Ohio St. Jr.

Turner finished his season on a high note despite the Buckeyes losing to Tennessee in the Sweet 16.
As the final seconds ticked off the clock, Turner sat at mid-court in disbelief, this was not the Danny-Manning-championship-like scenario he had envisioned. His college career likely over.

Turner finished with 31 points on 10-23 shooting, knocking down 2-4 from 3 and a perfect 9-9 from the line, making another strong case for why he should be considered for the #1 pick in this year’s draft.

As competitive as he is, and as great a hero as he would become in Columbus by returning, it would be as foolish as Matt Leinert returning for his senior year at USC for Turner to return for his senior season. By almost all accounts, he’s a top 2 lock for this year’s draft, and why risk the chance of an injury that could cost him millions?

The National player of the year was a projected lottery pick before the season, and yet he was still the most improved player in college basketball.

He was the best player in the country this year and is a better player than John Wall right now. With so many young point guards in the league, there will likely be some teams that target Turner instead of Wall in the draft, to fit into their current line up. If a team prefers Turner and gets the top pick, a likely scenario would be trading down to 2 with 2 giving up a package of picks and or players in return, or a third team potentially being involved, moving up and adding a combination of picks and an established star to even out the deal.

Durrell Summers 6-5 205 SG Michigan St. Jr.

Summers has proven to be the most inconsistent player in college basketball this year. Before the season, we rated him as a late-first to early-second round pick figuring he would have an excellent chance to shine once the tournament rolled around as the Spartans best athlete and best prospect.

He completely disappointed this year, averaging just over 10 points per game throughout most of the season. He would put up an 18 point game and follow that up with 2 or 3 single digit performances.

Although he has looked very impressive in the tournament showing both scoring and the ability to attack the rim off the bounce.

But scouts have been slow to get excited about him saying, "Where was he in January? I saw Michigan State play and didn’t even notice him on the court." Regardless scouts have taken notice of him lately and a big Final Four performance could really help his chances of getting drafted in the next two seasons.

Falling



Quincy Pondexter 6-7 210 SF Washington Sr.

Overall the tournament helped Pondexter, but he really struggled in Washington’s Sweet Sixteen match up with West Virginia, and with so many underclassmen expected to enter this year’s draft, Pondexter may fall victim to the numbers game and end up in the second round.

He finished with 7 points on 3-9 shooting, frustrated by West Virginia’s long, athletic defenders.

Pondexter was one of the most improved seniors in the country this year showing newfound confidence in his jumpshot. Detractors will point to a watered down Pac-Ten, but his all around success in the tournament leading Washington to the Sweet Sixteen and hitting a game winner to get them there helps reinforce his Conference excellence.

Q-Pon remains an intriguing option as a late first rounder due to his overall maturity, athleticism and scoring ability. Now if only someone could stop the floodgates of underclassmen declaring for the draft, seniors like Pondexter would stand a fair chance. While he’s got holes to his game, he still retains a certain level of upside despite being a senior.


Ryan Wittman 6-6 205 SG Cornell Sr.

Wittman’s lack of speed and athleticism was glaring against the stand out run/jump athletes of Kentucky. His 10 point (3-for-10 fg) 4 rebound performance was as bad as it looked on paper as he struggled to get shots and looked slow trying to make moves off the dribble. Unfortunately, aside from the Kansas game earlier in the year, scouts didn’t get a whole lot of opportunities to see Cornell kids play against NBA level athletes.

Wittman still has a shot, due to his great outside shooting, but his glaring lack of speed and athleticism will make it a challenge for him to get drafted and make an NBA team. Look for him to play in summer leagues and hope to make a team in the role of a scorer, or have a nice career overseas.

Eric Bledsoe 6-1 195 PG Kentucky Fr.

Bledsoe is expected to enter the draft and be a mid-late first rounder (between 15-25), but he fizzled in Kentucky’s Elite Eight match up with West Virginia.

After such a great first weekend in the tournament, Bledsoe’s chances of going in the lottery took a blow as he shot just 3-9 from the floor and 1-6 from the line in UK’s loss to the Mountaineers.

Still for player who averaged just over 10 ppg in the regular season, his 15.3 ppg average in the tournament on 59% fg has put him in great position to grab a first round spot in this years draft.

Bledsoe is not a good pick for a team looking for an NBA ready player. But for a team with the luxury of being able to wait for a player to develop, he offers a lot of upside. He’s a risky pick because there’s a lot of uncertainties about how well he can ultimately fit the point guard position. He played off guard all year, seeing just spot duty running the point when Wall would sit.

He’s is a long term potential pick and is unproven, but he benefits from such a weak point guard class in which many teams rate him as the second best point guard prospect to Wall.

Rick Jackson 6-9 260 PF Syracuse Jr.

With teammate Arinze Onuaku out with a leg injury, it was Jackson’s chance to shine as their featured interior player.

Jackson looked sluggish and extremely slow in the post fumbling a number of passes and
failing to catch the ball cleanly on a number of occasions. The Orange’s 2-3 zone were not nearly as formidable missing one of their two headed monster inside.

Jackson appeared overwhelmed by the situation and the game moved too quickly for him. If he was seen as a potential draft pick before the tourney, it’s hard to argue that afterwards.

On the bright side, he’s got one more year to figure things out and work hard to get in better shape.