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- Posted on: Thu, 01/12/2017 - 7:14pm #65520
jaysmith1987ParticipantI honestly believe that ten years from now there will be some big time players who came from this draft. I think a lot of the players got selected by teams with established stats so no player wasn’t just given that limitless opportunity to play through the growing pains. This draft saw a lot of high picks go to better than usual teams. Also most of the players where three years away from there potential. A lot of the guys needed more strength. At the end of the day this draft will go down as a high risk high reward draft and the best player from this class ten years from now might not be who everyone thinks it’s going to be.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 01/12/2017 - 7:52pm #1090717
Robb_CParticipantVery Profound Bold Predictions.. In other news Water is certainly Wet.
0- Posted on: Sun, 01/15/2017 - 10:27am #1090787
piratejpParticipantI get what he’s saying…in most drafts, you’ll have those guys who it may take a year or three to develop, but you uusally have at least a few guys who show up right away as likely to be solid contributors if not out-and-out stars. This draft is different in that you’ve got so many guys who we just don’t know about yet and so few who we do.
It’ll be a few years before we know if the two Phoenix bigs will amount to anything – I like Chriss, but he needs to continue to develop & we don’t know if he will. Same can be said for the three picks in Sacramento – all upside with nothing to show so far. Simmons hasn’t played; Dunn hasn’t looked good, but way too early to give up on him; Jaylen Brown is a complete question mark at this point; and the list goes on and on. In a couple years, there could be guys kicking butt who nobody’s even thinking about right now.
He might not have said it particuarly well, but his point is valid.
0- Posted on: Sun, 01/15/2017 - 9:30pm #1090809
Robb_CParticipantYoure right I was a little hard on his post but Google the word "Truism" and that’s pretty much what OP post was.. Im all about someone making a prediction but put some meat on it.
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- Posted on: Thu, 01/12/2017 - 9:57pm #1090719
Mike guytonParticipantUmm I’m thinking more like the 2018 draft there will be sum legendary players in that draft 2016 not so much
0 - Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 2:05am #1090720
binetParticipantIt is still looking like one of the worst draft ever. And NBA often does not forgive young talents. If you can’t make your team better by your first two years you are often thrown away, unless it’s just that your team still sucks (think Ben McLemore) or that the roster seems too deep to breakout (think Kyle Anderson).
This draft needs Ben Simmons to be as good as advertise, what at this point should be the case. There is just too much hype. Never seen coaches/front office praise a rookie this much before his first minute of play. Add LeBron summer workouts etc…
An average draft should have 3 HoF candidates (3 HoFers per year -> long term ratio is 3 HoFers per draft). Assuming Simmons could be 1, even if they end up successful I don’t see it with any other kids. The very top is surely below average at this point.
There will be some guys successful later, à la Otto Porter right now, but a few starting caliber guys won’t make it a good draft. I expect less than 15 guys here to get a second contract tbh.
Stilll wait&see with the stash&dash guys though.
0- Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 3:20am #1090725
negguaryParticipantPer draft?? how were you able to quantify that average of 3 per draft? where did you get that at? Because if that was the case and there were three per draft there wouldn’t be such an imbalance of team talent in the league IMO
0- Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 5:38am #1090731
binetParticipantIt’s pretty simple maths though. Every single year, you select 3 HoFers. If you follow this pattern eventually your sequence will put 3 HoFers per draft.
Right now of course, there are enough "old players not in the HoF" that it does not seem to be the case but it’s a pattern that should be more and more visible.
Of course that’s a metric that is debatable right now since it considers players like Chris Paul or Tony Parker HoFers when perhaps you would consider only Tim Duncan /Kobe talents as those when regarding at drafts. Difference between HoFer and "all time great" exists let’s say. There is less than 1 "all time great" per draft that’s for sure, not HoFers.
0- Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 7:02am #1090736
dmo21ParticipantI just looked back at the drafts from 1960-1992 (seemed like 92 was a good year to start as some of those guys could still be eligible to get in). There were 72 players in the hall of fame from those 33 draft years. That’s an average of approximately 2 per draft class. The 60’s averaged 2.6 HOFers/draft, 70’s averaged 2.1 and the 80’s also averaged 2.1. The highest was 6 players in 1970 and the lowest being 0 in 1973 and 1989. I don’t know how this will trend in the future as there are 2 ways of looking at it. Right now, we have more players in the NBA which could mean more possible changes of making it to the NBA. However, back in the day there were less players, so less parity so the better players would stand out even more and they had more of a chance to make a difference in the game.
Looking at these numbers, averaging 3 HOFers per draft is a bit off. And looking at this draft it is average at least. So maybe 1-2 HOFers.
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- Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 6:41am #1090734
dudo670Participant1984 Draft had 4 hall of famers and the 1996 Draft has 1 HOF with 2 other virtual locks. These are regarded as two of the best drafts ever and each combined for 7 HOF players. If there were 3 HOF level players per draft the HOF would be completely watered down. The point of the Hall of Fame is to honor some of the greatest players to play the game, not to hand out like halloween candy. I would argue from 2000-2009, the following players are either locks to make the HOF or if they continue their current trek for more years they are HOF talents are will be in: Lebron, Wade (03); CP3 (05); Durant (07); Westbrook (08), with possibly Curry and/or Harden (09). That’s 5 guys (potentially 7) in a 10 year period. However, that doesn’t include someone like Carmelo who has the talent to be a HOF player but not the body of work, or Derrick Rose who pre-injury looked like a HOF level talent. Since 2010 I would argue only Anthony Davis and Embiid are definite HOF talents where if those guys play a healthy 12 year career I can’t see either guy not making it in with how talented each are. HOF players don’t grow on trees which is why they are so valuable. This is what a lot of sixers fans don’t understand. You can have a top 3 pick every year but it doesn’t guarantee anything. Sixers had that for 3 years and lucked into drafting a HOF talent in Embiid because they drafted 3rd and he got the foot injury before the draft.
0- Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 6:56am #1090735
binetParticipantYou overestimate greatly what an Hall Of Fame talent is imo.
The line to be an HoFer is probably lower than Chris Paul’s career you know. Tracy McGrady is going there.
0- Posted on: Sat, 01/14/2017 - 6:53am #1090759
dudo670ParticipantHealthy is probably one of the 25 or 30 greatest players to ever play the game so that’s a bad example. Maybe you’re right, I overestimate what an actual HOF player is, but because of how watered down the HOF is with guys like Mutumbo and Mitch Richmond getting inducted in, a guy like Mutumbo or Richmond doesn’t change your franchise at all. They are good 2nd or great 3rd options but they aren’t shoo-in HOF talents like an Iverson or Kobe or Duncan active guys like Lebron and Dirk.
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- Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 10:05am #1090740
BeastMode716ParticipantWe all search for anything we can find on the topic of the draft & we all have our own opinions of which Mocks are the best.
In my personal opinion, having followed this stuff for a Very long time it is Very rare for a Draft to contain more than One Transcendant potential Star prospect. I really think espn does a good job with their Tier prospect system that lists prospects in 6 levels from 1 thru 6 & I have personally found this to be the most accurate in that it stands up over time when you look back.
In this system Tier 1 means that a player has Hall of Famer level skills & can become a transcendant Super Star who could be the #1 option on a Championship contending team. Think Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Isaiah Thomas, Magic, Wilt, Hakeem the Dream, Tim Duncan, Dr. J, Kobe, Lebron James. You get the idea. Tier 1 is a prospect who not only makes the All Star team most years but he’s in the Top 10 of MVP votiong year after year.
Tier 2 is an Absolute perenial All Star prospect. James Worthy, Joe Dumars, Scottie Pippen, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Ray Allen. These are Great players but they are just below that elite of the elite level. Tier 3 would be an excellent 10 – 12 yeart starter who might make an All Star team or two.
You get the idea. There are some years where there are Zero tier 1 prospects in a draft. 2013 had Zero Tier 1 prospects. It looks like the Greek Freak could grow into that level but at the time of the Draft he was 2” shorter & no one had any idea what he would grow into. 2013 may not have even had any Tier 2 prospects either. In 2012 there was One Tier 1 guy – the Unibrow. 2015 had One Tier 1 guy – KAT. 2016 had One Tier 1 guy – Ben Simmons. 2014 had an Incredible 3 Tier 1 guys – Embiid, Wiggins & Parker.
What is usually comes down to is how DEEP is the draft in Tier 2 & Tier 3 guys b/c those are realistic expectations to build your team each year. 2015 looks Packed w/ Tier 2 talents. Many, Many scouts believe that 2017 is Crazy deep w/ Tier 2 studs but has Zero Tier 1 guys. 2016 had One Tier 2 guy & that was Brandon Ingram.
Ingram was very young & he def needs development for 2 or 3 years & maybe longer & he is a guy who might keep growing like a freak & maybe Ingram even grows into a Tier 1 guys but after Ingram & Simmons I don’t know if we even have a Tier 3 guy in that Entire Draft. I think Jaylen Brown has elite athleticism that could make him a starter year in & year out but nothing more. There is No one in that Draft outside Simmons & Ingram who even be Drafted in the Lottery in 2015 or 2017.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 01/13/2017 - 10:41am #1090741
Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipantThis draft was always going to be about potential more than immediate impact. There were a number of players drafted early who either weren’t ready to contribute or weren’t going to be put in a position to contribute right away. I have to admit I kind of expected guys like ingram, heild and Dunn would do a little better right off the bat, but I have a feeling those guys will start to pick it up in the second half of the season. And we still haven’t even seen the top pick suit up yet. My gut feeling tells me that , while this might not be one of the stronger draft classes in recent memory, it won’t be one the weaker ones either. There will be some busts (just like there are are in any draft) but I think at least 3 or 4 players will ultimately emerge as multiple time all-stars and several more will be valuable contributors in the league for a long time.
0 - Posted on: Sun, 01/15/2017 - 1:15pm #1090790
HitsterParticipantJudging who could be HOF guys from drafts within the last few years is just pure guesswork, there are some years further back that will unlikely ever yield one HOF guy. The most recent year that I could probably say will have a HOF lock is 2009 with Harden and especially Steph Curry double MVP.
1996 draft has AI in HOF, Nash, Ray Allen and Kobe are all locks and someone like Ben Wallace is a possible.
0- Posted on: Mon, 01/16/2017 - 6:41am #1090825
binetParticipantDraymond Green and Klay Thompson are HoF locks also and drafted later. The 73-9 record and the warriors success will certainly eventually give them more than just Curry in the HoF. With Durant now and their team still incredibly good and probably in contention for the next few years and reasonably expected to make several other finals appearance, there is very few chances these guys does not make it. Titles are difference makers when it comes to the HoF. Kyrie and Love will have greater chance to be in than Harden if the cavs make the back-to-back. How many NBA champions has had no HoFers? How many 2 or more?
Ben Wallace indeed has great chance: NBA title plus DPOY award and lrebound leaders help.
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