[OhCanada-Participant]

Decided to start doing the head to heads leading up to the draft a bit earlier this year. This gives us a chance to get some conversations going on this years top prospects. I won’t be doing them every day, more likely every week or two until the predraft process starts and we get a better idea of who is staying in school and who is entering the draft. My next entry will be after the NCAA tournament is finished or if Duke is eliminated. Feel free to browse and comment on last years entries, this year I plan on doing more of them as long as people keep commenting.
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Who’s the better prospect?

Chet Holmgren is one of the most unique prospects I have ever seen. It’s extremely hard to predict what kind of impact he will have at the next level not only because he only weighs about 190 pounds but also because he played at Gonzaga’s stacked team against WCC teams. In the games he played against NBA level athleticism and size he clearly struggled although he still managed to be a major contributor. Despite this I would have to pass on him and pick Ivey in most situations because I do not think Chet is ever going to bulk up and still believe his offensive game is a work in progress.

As for Jaden Ivey its the complete opposite. Physically and athletically he passes all the eye tests. He has added a perimeter scoring game which he would need at the next level and has shown flashes of rare playmaking ability. He hasn’t had the productivity of a Ja Morant or a Trae Young but you have to ask if Ivey was playing at Weber St. and played in a high usage faster pace offense instead of Purdue’s post heavy sets how productive would he have been? I’ll take the explosive combo guard and risk passing on Chet’s incredible upside.
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2021 Draft Prospects
Green vs. Suggs https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/jalen-green-vs-jalen-suggs/
Kuminga vs. Barnes https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/jonathan-kuminga-vs-scottie-barnes/
Bouknight vs. Moody https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/james-bouknight-vs-moses-moody/
Giddey vs. J. Johnson https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/josh-giddey-vs-jalen-johnson/
Sengun vs. Jones https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/alperen-sengun-vs-kai-jones/
K. Johnson vs. Mitchell https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/keon-johnson-vs-davion-mitchell/
Kispert vs. Thomas https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/corey-kispert-vs-cam-thomas/
Primo vs. Williams https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/josh-primo-vs-ziare-williams/
Wagner vs. Murphy https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/franz-wagner-vs-trey-murphy/
Hyland vs. Mann https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/nyshon-hyland-vs-tre-mann/
Springer vs. Dosunmu https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/jaden-springer-vs-ayo-dosunmu/
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2022 Draft Prospects

[armchairgmParticipant]

Jaden Ivey has the higher ceiling in my eyes and I rather take him.

[HitsterParticipant]

So much depends on who drafts them. I could see Chet having more potential but being higher risk. Chet’s really battles are against Banchero and Smith to be top big. But your breakdowns are excellent as always.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

Yeah, as Hitster pretty much elaborated on, a lot depends on who drafts them. I’m going with Chet too in a vacuum. But if Ivey’s a secondary ball handler in the league, he might end up better. Tough, but I’d take Chet.

[BKGingerSnapParticipant]

Chet Holmgren is a nice player who has the chance to be a quality stretch big man if he continues to develop. But I don’t know how anyone thinks he’ll be better than Young Porzingis. Embiid and Jokic have like 100lbs on him. I think even his bigger supporters have to admit there is some bust potential here.

Jaden Ivey looks like Ja Morant athletically and was held back all season on a team with two slow 7 footers and playing out of position. Ivey is not a lock by any means but I see shades of Wall, Morant, and Monta Ellis. Now he may or may not be a point guard but I think Ivey has a higher floor and ceiling than Holmgren.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Chet has a lot of Evan Mobley to him, but is 20 lbs lighter and not quite as good moving laterally. The weight is a huge concern, but it is hard to think a team would turn down having a Mobley-type. Coming out of college and into the draft, Jaden Ivey is probably most similar to Donovan Mitchell. Physically, stylistically, and developmentally, I think he is much more like Mitchell than the oft-used Ja Morant comparison. In either case, Ivey still needs to polish up his shot, but he has great potential. He is much less risky than Chet, but having skilled 7-footers are incredibly valuable because they are more rare. I do not think it would be stunning if Chet goes first. When top picks get discussed and owners get involved, I would not be surprised if he re-emerges as the top guy. Still, I would probably be most comfortable with him third behind Jabari Smith and Ivey. Smith has a better frame. Physically, he resembles Giannis as a rookie. Again, very different player and developmental curve, but it is still rare for a guy to have that frame and athleticism under any circumstance, and Jabari Smith can shoot it. I do not think he will be as ball dominant as Ivey or Giannis, but currently even the truly awful teams have promising lead guards. Cade, Haliburton, Lillard, and SGA are either proven to be good or seem to be on the right track. Orlando would probably be pleased with where Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs are at. Houston seems content with a not especially trustworthy but talented Kevin Porter. Jalen Green has been much more promising the past couple months even if it has come in a stretch where the team has been 5-21 and the production came amid a lot of low intensity blowouts.

[HitsterParticipant]

With the NBA being so much about 3 point shooting how accurate is Rashard Lewis as a comparison for Jabari Smith?
This site says he is a mix of Chris Bosh and Lewis so if he had the big man skillset anywhere near to what Bosh became and had Lewis’s shooting ability he has to be an elite level prospect.

Banchero isn’t such a great athlete as the other top guys but he has the bulk and an NBA body so wouldn’t get bullied in the post and has very good intangibles and is a good ball handler. He may not have superstar level upside but I could see him having an Al Horford type career and being a regular all star contender.

Chet does have higher risk factor and what would be his NBA position but when you have guys like John Hammond at Orlando drafting and how he rates size then I just don’t see him passing on Chet. He already has Wendell Carter a similar build to Banchero. But what BTPH said above about Jabari being similar build to the Freak is interesting and might be something John Hammond would spot?

Banchero looks the sort of guy the Pacers would draft IMO. Ivey could fit into most line ups high in the draft. Jabari likewise and I don’t see too many teams passing on Chet if any.

Detroit I’m not sure which way they would go in the draft out of all the top teams so might be the one I watch most closely.

Oklahoma and Pacers both having additional first rounders likely in 15 to 20 range could also come into play if they really like a porospect and may want to move up a spot. I’d love to see Kevin Pritchard really active on draft night making some deals. Him and Sam Presti going at it would be fun.

[OhCanada-Participant]

Rashard Lewis is pretty accurate but Jabari has more of a takeover mentality. Smith doesn’t play with the ball. 3 dribbles or less. A team drafting him should be looking to use him the way Klay Thompson is used on the Warriors. He will probably be amongst the league leaders in 3pt attempts every year of his career.

I also think Chet is going to be 1st overall for any teams that are still tanking. Like OKC, Houston, Orlando have no plans to compete next season so they can invest in a project with the highest upside in theory. But a team like the Kings or the Pistons are going to make a push to compete and will probably see someone like Chet as a risk.

[HitsterParticipant]

Good points as always Oh Canada. The more I think about Jabari the more I like him if his 3 point range is as good as people are saying and for a big man that would really allow teams to spread the floor if they have a good passer to run the point and another good 3 point shooter in the backcourt or at 3.

Chet’s ability on defence away from the basket will be a big positive as if he isn’t needing to bang in the paint he’ll be a shot alterer especially if he is marking a potentially elite shooter like Jabari at PF. I still see Chet as the most upside but a very skinny guy his size would have a lot of bust risk also would his build make him potentially fragile or being so light would it put less stress on his frame than say a 250lbs guy like Banchero?

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

This is probably an unfair comparison given how injuries altered his career, but Banchero has a lot of Jabari Parker in him. The concern is not that he will have multiple knee injuries, but that these are guys with NBA bodies walking into college but are not so big or so athletic that they figure to be overwhelming in the NBA. While both went/are going into the NBA as decent to promising shots, it is a little worrisome when facing guys who can stand their ground defensively off a bump and quick enough so they might not always have a step.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

I can see what you mean. The best ceiling comparison I think I’ve seen or heard for Banchero is a more athletic Jayson Tatum. If that’s what he actually becomes is up for debate. I think a more athletic Tatum would be a solid player though. But he lack that elite burst and it’s hard to say what he will actually do.

[OhCanada-Participant]

I know I’m a Raptors fan so its really easy for me to make this comparison since I watch all the games but I see alot of what Boucher does and how he is forced to play the game and see Chet Holmgren having the same strengths and weaknesses based on the slim body type. The reason I know it will work for Chet even know I’m certain he wont be able to add the weight is because it still works for Chris. They both have that grit and toughness to their game where they really aren’t scared to get thrown around and rag dolled a bit. They will still mix it up.

That being said having that body type makes it easy to contest shots on the perimeter, switch onto guards, slip in for offensive rebounds because its very hard to body him. He will be a great help defender as well. But you will see him get pushed around and may lead the league in times he hits the deck. But alot of those are gonna be fouls drawn by Chet in a marcus Smart type fashion. He’s gonna have to get the perimeter shot down too. Where Chet precedes Chris is he is longer, taller and has better guard skills and ball IQ.

But its always gonna be a situation where you are giving up tons of things to the opposing team and the team drafting Chet is going to have to build around him to mask these weaknesses. Thats why despite the crap teams like Orlando, OKC, Houston being his favorite destinations they better have a plan if they do pick him. I just don’t see it working in Detroit with Casey involved. He’s way too traditional and fixed with his rotations to be able to utilize Chet to his strengths.

[NorrinRaddParticipant]

I really see what you mean. I keep thinking if Kirilenko used to get all those blocks and steals, and Franz Wagner is also a good defensive player that could potentially do that… Chet could easily do that without adding weight. He can defend wings and be a small ball 5 at times.

[HitsterParticipant]

Chet if he’s not banging in the paint won’t have such an issue with his lack of bulk. He’d be an ideal smallball or should it be skinnyball 5. But he is almost like one of these skinny Euro finesse guys who we all hoped would be the next Dirk.

I fully agree with what Oh Canada says about having to build your team around him. I’d have to think where he fits best in that scenario but the Thunder sprang to mid they are trying to fit the similarly built Aleksej Pokuševski into their roster so would know how to use Chet who’d effectively be an upgrade on Aleksej.

[OhCanada-Participant]

bump

Both players currently injured.

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