My two cents' worth on how the 2010-11 conference race will look:
1. Washington
Departures: F Quincy Pondexter (NBA draft), G Elston Turner.
Arrivals: F Terrence Ross, C Aziz N'Diaye (juco transfer), F Desmond Simmons.
Good: Quick, talented and deep.
Bad: Frontcourt scoring.
Bottom line: If Abdul Gaddy can deliver more on his potential, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning continues developing as he did late last season, the Huskies could coast to the conference title.
2. UCLA
Departures: F Nikola Dragovic, G Michael Roll, C J'mison Morgan (dismissed), F Drew Gordon (quit).
Arrivals: G Tyler Lamb, G Matt Carlino, G Lazeric Jones (juco), C Joshua Smith, F Jack Haley
Good: Experienced backcourt.
Bad: Defense.
Bottom line: F Tyler Honeycutt and F Reeves Nelson developed into significant factors last season, and Jones could help Jerime Anderson stabilize the point. The Bruins aren't likely to go backward this time.
3. Arizona
Departures: G Nic Wise
Arrivals: G Daniel Bejarano, G Jordin Mayes, F Jesse Perry (juco).
Good: Four starters return, more depth.
Bad: Rebounding, leadership.
Bottom line: If aggressive MoMo Jones can keep growing into a steady point guard -and Derrick Williams gets a little more help inside -- the Wildcats can make a run for the conference title.
4. Arizona State
Departures: G Derek Glasser, C Eric Boateng
Arrivals: F Carrick Felix (juco), G Keala King, G Corey Hawkins, G Brandon Dunson (juco), F Kyle Cain, C Jordan Bachynski (finished Mormon mission), G Chanse Creekmur
Good: Scoring and field-goal percentage defense
Bad: Lack of frontcourt experience.
Bottom line: Kuskiks' return ensures ASU will have plenty of three-point options along with Ty Abbott, to keep Herb Sendek's offense dangerous enough.
5. Washington State
Departures: G Nikola Koprivica, G Xavier Thames (transferred).
Arrivals: G Faisal Aden (juco), F Patrick Simon
Good: Strong returning core, including big three of G Klay Thompson, G Reggie Moore and C DeAngelo Casto.
Bad: No more Bennett Ball -- Cougars gave up 70.6 points per game last season.
Bottom line: WSU underachieved in Ken Bone's first year, but the returning talent and familiarity with his system suggests a higher finish this time.
6. California
Departures: G Jerome Randle, G Patrick Christopher, F Theo Robertson, F Jamal Boykin, F Omondi Amoke (dismissed).
Arrivals: F Allen Crabbe, G Gary Franklin, G Jeff Powers, F Richard Solomon, F Alex Rossi.
Good: G Jorge Gutierrez has the defense and playmaking ability to suggest he can lead the young Bears.
Bad: Last season's champs decimated by losses
Bottom line: Is it too much to ask that Franklin (at the point) and Crabbe (a shooter) plus the other three freshmen keep this team competitive? Not if Mike Montgomery is the coach.
7. USC
Departures: G Dwight Lewis, F Marcus Johnson, G Mike Gerrity, F Leonard Washington.
Arrivals: G Jio Fontan (Fordham transfer, eligible in December), G Maurice Lucas, G Bryce Jones, F Garrett Jackson, C Curtis Washington
Good: Arguably the league's best frontcourt with Alex Stepheson and Nikola Vucevic.
Bad: Three-point shooting
Bottom line: Trojans will KO some opponents with big men and defense but they'll need quick maturation from the backcourt to reach the postseason.
8. Oregon State
Departures: F Roeland Shaftenaar, G Seth Tarver, G Josh Tarver
Arrivals: F Devon Collier, G Ahmad Starks, C Chris Brown
Good: Possibly the top player in practice last season, G Roberto Nelson, is expected to be eligible.
Bad: Turnovers, loss of Shaftenaar, who fit Craig Robinson's system well.
Bottom line: Beavers will scare everyone - they swept UA last season - but will need Nelson to get eligible and sharpshooting G Rhys Murphy healthy to move upward.
9. Stanford
Departures: F Landry Fields, G Drew Shiller
Arrivals: F Andy Brown, G Anthony Brown, G Aaron Bright, F John Gage,, F Josh Huestis, F Dwight Powell, F Stefan Nastic
Good: Recruiting class
Bad: Rebounding, defense
Bottom line: G Jeremy Green is among the league's best guards but he'll have a lot of inexperience around him.
10. Oregon
Departures: Coach Ernie Kent, G Tajuan Porter, G Matt Humphrey (transfer), F Drew Wiley (transfer), F Jamil Wilson (transfer), C Michael Dunigan (early pro departure -- unconfirmed).
Arrivals: Coach Dana Altman, F Tyron Nared, G Johnathan Loyd
Good: F Joevan Catron granted sixth year.
Bad: Painfully long coaching search made Arizona's 2009 process look easy.
Bottom line: The new arena will generate fan interest. The Ducks probably won't.
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Meanwhile, the preseason annuals are beginning to hit the shelves. Here's how two of them see the conference race:
Sporting News
1. Washington
2. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. Washington State
5. ASU
6. California
7. Oregon State
8. USC
9. Stanford
10. Oregon
Lindy's
1. Washington
2. Arizona
3. UCLA
4. ASU
5. USC
6. Washington State
7. Oregon State
8. Stanford
9. California
10. Oregon
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Feel free to put your picks on the comment thread for this post or any other this month (we did this in July last year).
If there's interest in tabulating the results, I will try to score them at the end of the conference season as I did last season, unless I get slammed. We're trying to see if we can automate this somehow but have not yet.
The scoring system is evenly weighted on all 10 teams and will be based on the Pac-10 Tournament seedings. You lose a point for every slot you are off on every team (i.e., if you pick UA first and it finishes third, you'd get two points for that selection) and the lowest score wins.
The tiebreaker is most teams picked correctly, followed (if necessary) by point total from first five selections.
