NBA Preview: Southeast DivisionBy: Jonathan Pastuszek

By Jon Pastuszek

(Teams listed in projected order of finish)

1. Orlando Magic
Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy
2007-2008 Record: 52-30 (Lost in Eastern Conference Semis to
Detroit)
Key Additions: Courtney Lee (Draft), Mickael Pietrus (FA from
Golden State), Anthony Johnson (FA from Sacramento)
Key Losses: Carlos Arroyo (signed in Europe), Keyon Dooling (FA
to New Jersey)

Last season, the Orlando Magic won 52 games behind Dwight Howard’s dominance,
Hedo Turkoglu’s emergence and Rashard Lewis’ convergence.

Howard put everything together last year, hauling down a league leading 14
rebounds, swatting over two shots and scoring 20 points a game last season.

Turkoglu posted his best year as an NBA player, winning the Most Improved Player
award. The main beneficiary to Stan Van Gundy’s system, the Turkish international
became Orlando’s best clutch player as well as their most versatile offensive
weapon.

Lewis was the new $122 million dollar addition to the team last year. There
is no way he should be getting that amount of money, but he was still a great
player last year, cashing threes and effectively spreading the floor for Howard.

With the Magic, everything revolves around their man in the middle. Entering
his fifth season, Howard is now an official force on offense. His mere presence
in the lane attracts a double team with every touch.

He’s a lock for 20+ a night, but does Dwight even have an offensive move?
He gets most of his points off of dunks, layups, putbacks, alley-oops and the
occasional awkward baby hook shot. Just imagine if Superman developed a little
face up game, or a turnaround jumper.

Orlando returns the same core of Lewis, Turkoglu and Howard that got them 52
wins and a trip to the Eastern Conference Semis. That still makes them the best
team in their division, as well as a very relevant team in Eastern Conference
picture.

But, with the Cavs and Sixers – their two main rivals for the third spot
in the East – both made major moves that should improve their teams. Orlando
basically stood pat, making very minor moves. As an added worry, the departures
of Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling makes the Magic a team heavily reliant on
NBA journeyman and rookies.

The Magic are going to be good, just not as good as last year.

Top Rookie: Courtney Lee (Western Kentucky)

The selection of Courtney Lee at the 22nd overall spot confirms the obvious:
Dwight Howard is the centerpiece of this franchise. Lee can stroke from three
– spotting up or on the move – which is always a needed skill on
a team with a dominant big man. At around 6-5, the WKU product is a little undersized
for the two, but the Magic are hoping that his four years of college ball and
high basketball IQ make up for that. Drafting Lee pretty much spells the end
for J.J. Redick, which brings us to our…

Bold Prediction: J.J. Redick finally gets off the bench this
year and… becomes the team’s official water boy.

If anybody watches NBA TV semi-regularly, you’ve seen the advertisement.
The Better Basketball DVD series calls J.J. Redick “the best shooter in
basketball history” in promotion for their Better Basketball: Shooting
disc. How can you be the best shooter if you can’t even get on the floor?
How is he even comparable to Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Downtown Freddy Brown
or any other of the all-time great marksmen? J.J. has called for more PT in
the media this offseason, but it won’t make a difference. If you can’t
defend, there is no way any Van Gundy brother is going to play you. I’m
interested to see him get on the court someday, but I’m going to have
to wait until he hits free agency in two years because the only time you’re
going to see him is on those commercials.

Projected Record: 51-31 (3rd in Eastern Conference)

2. Atlanta Hawks
Head Coach: Mike Woodson
2007-2008 Record: 37-45 (Lost in 1st Round to Boston)
Key Additions: Maurice Evans (FA from Orlando), Flip Murray (FA from
Indianapolis)
Key Losses: Josh Childress (signed in Europe), Salim Stoudemire (FA to
San Antonio)

The (L)Eastern Conference was a joke in 07-08. Only six out of 15 teams finished
with winning records, but since NBA rules say that eight teams from each must
conference must make the playoffs, two more teams had to get in. And that’s
how Atlanta got in as the eighth squad… they weren’t as terrible
as the Pacers.

Expected to be nothing more than a punch line in their first round matchup
with the Celtics, Atlanta totally stunned everybody by pushing the best team
in the NBA to seven games. Rookie Al Horford was unitimidated by Kevin Garnett,
Joe Johnson was unstoppable against Boston’s unrivaled defense and Josh
Smith was everywhere. The residents of Atlanta suddenly realized that there
was a basketball team in their city, and showed up in full force to give their
young squad a real homecourt advantage.

The progress that was seen in the series was enough to re-up head coach Mike
Woodson to a new deal. He’s improved his team’s record in each of
his four seasons, and he’s expected to make this team into a consistent
playoff team.

In this sense, Atlanta’s near upset of Boston turns from something really
positive into something really negative. Woodson and his 106-222 record on the
Hawks’ sidelines will be holding the clipboard yet again, and that’s
not good.

The ATLiens actually have a really good starting five. Mike Bibby, Johnson,
Marvin Williams, Smith and Horford can play with any other starting-five in
the NBA and if they all stay healthy, they Hawks will definitely be in the playoff
equation.

The other seven guys who will suit up every night, however, are not really
good. They’re actually really bad. Now that Josh Childress, one of the
best sixth men in the league last year, is eating gyro’s in Greece, the
Hawks bench is bereft of depth and talent. Other than the solid Maurice Evans,
there is almost nobody who should be getting major minutes.

With Woodson still on the sidelines and a bench that wouldn’t even get
that much run in the D-League, Atlanta shouldn’t be a playoff team. Yet,
in an Eastern Conference that is still trying to bridge the gap from its elite
teams to its bad ones, Atlanta may yet again back into the playoffs as a below-.500
team

Top Rookie: None

The Hawks did not have a draft pick in 2008 and will have no rookies on their
roster.

Bold Prediction: The Hawks make back-to-back playoff appearances
in back-to-back sub-.500 seasons.

Let’s cool all this talk about how the East is now a beast. With injuries
hitting the Wizards very hard already, the conference goes six deep. Other than
Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Orlando and Toronto, you can make
a convincing argument that none of the nine remaining teams will finish with
more than 41 wins. If every team is severely flawed in some way, then it’s
the team that is the least flawed that will back into the playoffs. With their
fantastic starting five lineup, the Hawks are the “best” worst team
in the East and will make the playoffs as a result.

Projected Record: 39-43 (7th in Eastern Conference)

3. Miami Heat
Head Coach: Erik Spolestra
2007-2008 Record: 15-67 (15th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Additions: Michael Beasley (draft), Mario Chalmers (draft
trade), James Jones (FA from Portland)
Key Losses: Jason Williams (retirement), Ricky Davis (FA to
LA Clippers)

No team has fallen lower or faster, than the Miami Heat.

In just two years time, the Heat have gone from NBA Champs to worst team in
the NBA. Last year went from hopeful, to sympathetic, to bad, to worse, to worst.
It was pitiful to watch.

After a horrendous start, Miami pulled the plug quickly by sending Shaquile
O’Neal to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and introduced a series of D-League
players to NBA life as a starter. Dwyane Wade missed a good chunk of the season
with injuries, and never really got it together once he came back. In all honestly,
there wasn’t really any motivation for him to play hard. GM Pat Riley
made it clear that they were going to tank the season in hopes of getting the
number one pick. The D-League All-Stars did enough to get the second pick, where
they got a pretty good consolation prize in Michael Beasley.

This season, there seems to be two views on the Heat. The first group feels
the Heat are a playoff team. D-Wade went back to being unstoppable in Beijing,
and all signs indicate that he is fully healthy and ready to dominate the league
again. Beasley is an impact rookie who should be the second option of offense
this year. Like in Phoenix, Marion will be flying all over the court on offense
and defense, starting the break with his rebounds finishing them with his speed
and hops. Those three, especially a healthy Wade, will be enough to get in the
postseason.

The other group thinks that there isn’t enough around those three to
mount a serious threat to make the playoffs. There is really nobody of consequence
at any other position, and while Miami’s main three players are talented,
a better overall team is needed.

With one of the top 5 players in the world in Wade, look for this team to get
back on track and the first scenario to play out. Despite lacking great depth,
the Heat’s big three should be enough to carry them as after the top 6, the
East lacks

Top Rookie: Michael Beasley (Kansas State)

Say what you will about Beasley’s character issues (they’re all
valid), but it doesn’t change the fact that this kid can flat out ball.
He’s got it all: an incredibly gifted offensive player who can score from
anywhere on the court in a variety of different ways. The only concern I have
about Beasley is his height. With his large frame and diversified skill set,
he doesn’t have a real position yet. That likely won’t matter, because
his talent will be more than enough to overcome his lack of ideal height. If
Beasley can keep his head on straight in a city that invites late-night debauchery,
he’s a great piece to go along with Dwyane Wade for the future.

Bold Prediction: Alonzo Mourning successfully comes back from
his horrific knee/quad injury, even playing well in a backup role afterwards.

Alonzo Mourning is a true warrior. If he comes back from the injury that kept
him on the sidelines for most of last season, he’s going down as one of
the most driven people in sports history. We all know his amazing story in overcoming
his nearly fatal kidney disease. He has a will unlike any other. He’s
had some not so glorious moments in the past, but nobody can question the guy’s
resolve. Why the Heat have not retired this man’s jersey is a mystery
to me. Other than Dan Marino, Alonzo is the most revered person in the Miami
area for the success he’s brought to the franchise, and the difference
he’s made in the community. ‘Zo is going to shut down his doubters
yet again, and provide even more inspiration for his many fans.

Projected Record: 38-44 (8th in Eastern Conference)

4. Washington Wizards
Head Coach: Eddie Jordan
2007-2008 Record: 43-39 (Lost in 1st Round to Cleveland)
Key Additions: Javale McGee (Draft), Juan Dixon (FA from Toronto)
Key Losses: Roger Mason Jr. (FA to San Antonio)

Washington lives up to their Wizards moniker every year, somehow staying magically
relevant in the East despite major injuries to key players. Last year, they
won 43 games without Gilbert Arenas, and the year before that they missed Antawn
Jamison for extended and extended period.

Eddie Jordan deserves credit for that. He somehow manages to effectively coach
depleted teams while staring in major films like Hustle & Flow and Crash.

Last year though, Caron Butler and Jamison delivered their own critically acclaimed
performances. “Tough Juice” had his best year as a pro, doing everything
on both sides of the ball. Jamison took over Arenas’ role as primary offensive
option, and he had the first 20-10 season of his career.

In an offseason where both Jamison and Arenas were free agents, Washington
decided to throw the house at both of them, signing the two to massive deals
in hope that when finally healthy, the Wizards would be a serious challenger
to Boston and Detroit.

For the third consecutive season, they’ll be battling injuries again.
Arenas is still coming back from major knee surgery and will be in a suit and
tie for the first part of the season. They’ll also be without their starting
center and main source of interior toughness, Brendan Haywood, who is expected
to be out for the season with a fractured wrist.

Without Haywood, Jordan will be leaning on Etan Thomas, Andray Blatche and
rookie Javale McGee to fill the void. It’s funny to think that Haywood
could be more important than Arenas, but it may be true. The Wizards have a
huge hole in the middle and it may be too big to cover up. Rebounding and interior
defense, two things that separate the men from the boys in the NBA, are going
to be tough in D.C. this year and not having Haywood may be too much for the
Wizards to overcome.

On paper, this is a fantastic team. Arenas, Butler and Jamison are as good
as any other trio in the league, and Washington has solid role players like
DeShawn Stephenson, Brandon Haywood, Antonio Daniels and Nick Young to support
them.

In reality, however, this is a team that has shown its brittle. Washington’s
has no real replacement for its only true big man, and will miss the playoffs
this year as a result. I guess we’ll have to wait another year to see
all the guys together.

Top Rookie: Javale McGee (Nevada)

McGee isn’t ready for the show yet but should turn into an excellent center
over time. He may get thrown to the wolves a little faster than planned with
Brendan Haywood out for the season with an injury.

Bold Prediction: Gilbert Arenas puts an addition on his
custom swimming pool complete with dolphins and killer whales.

While Arenas has become one of the most entertaining players in
the league both on and off the court with his blog, his injury woes have to
be a concern for a team that just sunk a guarunteed 126 million into him.

Projected Record: 36-46 (10th in Eastern Conference)

5. Charlotte Bobcats
Head Coach: Larry Brown
2007-2008 Record: 32-50
Key Additions: D.J. Augistin and Alexis Ajinca (Draft)
Key Losses: None

The Bobcats are simply one of the worst run franchises in the NBA. Bob Johnson
bought this team without any apparent plan, and it shows on the court, as the
Bobcats are pretty much being constructed without a plan. Charlotte is in between
veteran and youth — a team that is locked into needless salaries while also
trying to develop its young players.

It’s a strategy that hasn’t worked out at all. Since its expansion
into the league, Charlotte has never been good and they have never had any kind
of fan support. Johnson has lost a good chunk of money in the team, and has
made suggestions on television and in the newspaper that he’s looking
to sell.

Bob is one of the least involved owners in the league, so it would make sense
that he’s teamed up Michael Jordan, one of the least involved executives
in the league.

MJ, the best player ever, is in danger of becoming the next Isiah Thomas if
somebody doesn’t relieve him of his duties. He set the Wizards back for
years during his stay in Washington, and he’s doing nothing to disprove
the theory while in Charlotte that he’s an atrocious GM.

Look at what he’s done: He’s spent big money on Jason Richardson,
Emeka Okafor and Gerald Wallace, a core that hasn’t accomplished anything
together. Raymond Felton, the team’s starting point guard, is currently lined
up next for an extension. To me, it makes no sense to invest a future in a team
that has so far been unable to show it can make the playoffs, nonetheless contend
for a title.

He’s whiffed on several draft picks over the years, most notably Kwame
Brown and Adam Morrison.

New coach Larry Brown is putting himself in the exact same Knicks scenario
he said he would never return to: coaching a bad team, run by a bad GM, and
owned by a clueless billionaire.

No playoffs this year for the BETcats, only speculation as to where Charlotte
will be relocating to in three years.

Top Rookie: D.J. Augustin (Texas)

There are reports that Jordan wanted to go with Brook Lopez at the nine spot,
but Larry Brown begged the team to draft a point guard. Brown finally convinced
Jordan, and Augustin was selected at nine. Augustin enters into the Bobcats
backcourt mix because somebody (Brown probably) isn’t too enamored with
Ray Felton. I’m not a huge Felton fan either, but is Augistin an NBA starter?
Despite great handles and floor vision, D.J. isn’t overly fast or quick,
nor does he have much lift on his jump shot. That wouldn’t be a problem
if he were a bigger guard, but since he checks it at under six feet, there are
some major concerns about his effectiveness. If Brown gets fed up with Felton
and his shaky decision making, Augistin will get the call-up to starter and
that will definitely cost the Bobcats some wins this season.

Bold Prediction: Larry Brown gets tired of this team before
the season starts. Brown is out as coach before completeing two full seasons.

Projected Record: 26-56 (12th in Eastern Conference)